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The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010 near Machilipatnam(Andhra Pradesh).
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve into a northeasterly direction towards Orissa.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period.
Gale force wind with speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Damage to thatched huts, breaking of the tree branches, causing minor damage to power and communication lines.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation.
Forecast for Orissa: Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal & south Orissa and isolated heavy over remaining parts of Orissa during next 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa during the same period.pFishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010.
JTWC warning
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210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 80.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED INLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND THERE ARE NO NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, PARALLELING THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF INDIA WHILE WEAKENING. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, AND DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER LAND PRIOR TO ENTERING BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, IN THE VICINITY OF BANGLADESH, AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PULL UP MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8am IST
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