Cyclone "01 B" .. Update # 15 ... Very near to Andhra coast

JTWC warning
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200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E
IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH
DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z
AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

JTWC projected path
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IMD warning
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The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.0⁰N and long. 81.0⁰E, about 120 km northeast of Nellore, 100 km southeast of Ongole and 120 km south of Machilipatnam.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Kavali and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam by afternoon of 20^thMay 2010. The system is showing sign of weakening due to increase of wind shear and land interaction.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over north TamilNadu during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with Maximum speed reaching 100-110 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during the same period. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & East Godavaridistricts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage tothatched roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.

Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: According to NWP model predictions, the system is likely to move northeastwards across Orissa andWest Bengal after the landfall. The enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastal Orissa andGangetic West Bengal from today, the 20^th May and 21^st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmphlikely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20^th and 21^st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010.

IMD projected path
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Latest satellite shot 7:30am IST
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South-west Monsoon
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We can see monsoon clouds over S-W Srilanka and very near to S-W coast of Kerala. As expected monsoon will break over Kerala on 21 or 22-May or Even today.
This showers may last till 27-May, then there'll be a break before the FULL fledged S-W monsoon current breaks in over entire Kerala coast around 30-May.