Thursday, May 20, 2010

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 17 ... Now over land

IMD Warning
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST

The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.50N and long. 80.50E, about 50 km east of Ongole, 50 km south of Bapatla and 70 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast about 50 km southwest of Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla by today, the 20th May 2010 afternoon.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 36 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.

Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & EastGodavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: (NellorePrakashamGuntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.

Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastalOrissa and Gangetic West Bengal from today, the 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system again into the sea. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010.

IMD observed track & projected path

Satellite shot at 1pm IST
Showing signs of weakening

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