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200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM CHENNAI AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM A RADAR VELOCITY PRODUCT FROM CHENNAI. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTH-EASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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The weakened laila system will now take the path suggested by JTWC as it is in the grip of strong S-W to N-E Upper air current.
This N-E movement will surely bring the S-W monsoon over Kerala coast, as expected by some MODELS on 23-May.
IMD warning: 13:30 hrs
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The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 l near latitude 15.70N and long. 80.50E, about 50 km east of Ongole, 30 km south of Bapatla and 70 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast about 50 km southwest of Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla between 2-4 pm of today.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 36 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.
Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur , Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.
Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastal Orissa and Gangetic WestBengal from today, the 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system again into the sea. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.
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