Cyclone "Ward" .. #1

Latest visible satellite shot 7:30AM IST

JTWC - predicted path, 5:30 AM IST

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JTWC - Warning, 5:30 am IST

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120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 84.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TC 05B
ARE DEEPENING FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS SEEN A CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE
MOST RECENT ITERATION OCCURRING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE LLCC HAS
BEEN CHALLENGING TO IDENTIFY, MAKING THE TRACK SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, AND BASED ON THE
MOST RECENT ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSING TC 05B TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS HAS THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE STILL OVER TC 05B PROVIDING AN
AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THE
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THIS SUPPORT IS LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED AS
THE WESTERLIES LIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 05B MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE REDUC-
TION IN OUTFLOW TO THE MID-LATITUDES WILL KEEP INTENSIFICATION TO
A MINIMUM BEFORE TC 05B TRACKS INTO COASTAL INDIA, CAUSING THE DISSI-
PATION OF WARD AROUND TAU 48.

IMD - warning, 5:30 am IST
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Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 9.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 600 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.

Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 Kmph gusting to 95 Kmph. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.