57 mms rain at Colaba on Thursday night ! Going up, towards the target ??
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'GIRI" watch

POSITION NEAR 18.5N 92.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 211533Z TRMM PASS AND A 211730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF T=4.0 FROM PGTW AT 211730Z AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04B HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND BY TAU 24, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER  THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. 

Typhoon Clowns

More Bogus Hurricane Predictions From "Experts" - Is It Time To Hold Experts Criminally Negligent For Promoting Fraudulent Predictions?

After years of prediction failures, the experts powered up their climate models to have another go at. After these models kept predicting more frequent and intense hurricanes due to global warming, the actual results (see more here) were stunningly different than predicted:

The past hurricane predictions of the IPCC "scientists" has been found to be embarrassingly bad - 100% of the IPCC statements were found to be wrong.

Why are experts, climate models and the IPCC always so wrong on hurricane and other tropical storm predictions? Simple. The climate models used are worthless as prediction tools but are true perfection for ego-driven public relations, and the need for raising more research funds.

"Despite warnings by scientists that identifying an actual trend in storm variability is impossible due to a lack of reliable historical data, a new report in Nature Geoscience is being cited as a solid prediction of future trends in tropical cyclone activity. The other thing not mentioned is that this research is based on models of questionable accuracy....In it, the authors warn that there is precious little that can be predicted from past data. But this does not stop them from blithely predicting the future based on new “high-resolution” models."

"Once again, climate scientists are predicting future climate behavior based, not on empirical data, but on computer models. They go on to state that confidence in some of their predictions is low “owing to uncertainties in the large-scale patterns of future tropical climate change, as evident in the lack of agreement between the model projections of patterns of tropical SST changes.”

These researchers know that these widely publicized predictions have a very low probability of being correct, yet they are not held accountable for their demonstrably false proclamations. Does that sound far-fetched? Others are starting to think along the same lines.

Here's our prediction (sans model): at some point, a smart group of lawyers will figure out how to structure a class action lawsuit against the hurricane-clowns and their supporting institutions for the billions wasted, not only on the "models" research, but for all the wasted billions spent by businesses to prepare for non-existent hurricanes. Or, maybe it's possible to do a class-action on the mental anguish and fear caused by these false prophets? Or, maybe it will be a few states' attorney generals that go after the deep endowment/foundation pockets that incentivize bogus/fraudulent research. Certainly the FTC and/or FDA wouldn't allow fraudulent predictions like these to made by corporate concerns on any given number of subjects.

Courtesy:

'MEGI' & "GIRI"

'MEGI' becomes typhoon. "GIRI" further moved slighly N-Ne wards. At 850 hPa level "MEGI" & 'GIRI' makes COL region. GIRI's path may be guided by this COL. and also the STH ridge at higher tropospheric level. The 21102010/1200 UTC upper wind profile indicated winds[Kolkatta, Bhubaneswar, Machilipattinam, Chennai etc] from westerly direction to strenthen the GIRI.

Chances that 04B "GIRI" may be dragged along the upper steering winds and perhaps may HIT Andhra / Tamilnadu coast .. http://ow.ly/2X62x

N-E Bay cyclone has been named as "GIRI" ... expected to make landfall on evening of 22-Oct near Sittwe, Myanmar.

5:30pm, Heavy showers over N. Tamilnadu and S. Andhra

"04B" is constantly moving N-E direction and landfall on evening of 22-Oct over Myanmar... http://ow.ly/i/4Lcq

N-E Bay depression "04B"... update

JTWC
--------------------

210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SPIKED FROM PGTW AND KNES 
IN RESPONSE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS 
CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210405Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS AT LEAST 40 KNOTS 
AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON A 210039Z TMI AND A 
210403Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. MODERATE WESTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FACILITATE A GENERAL 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TILL LANDFALL WITH BURMA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. 
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TWO WEAK TO MODERATE 
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN WALKED SOUTH, CLOSER TO 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET.

"04B" is intensifying fast, it might get a NAME before morning of 22-Oct.