N-E Bay depression "04B"... update

JTWC
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210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SPIKED FROM PGTW AND KNES 
IN RESPONSE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS 
CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210405Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS AT LEAST 40 KNOTS 
AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON A 210039Z TMI AND A 
210403Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. MODERATE WESTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FACILITATE A GENERAL 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TILL LANDFALL WITH BURMA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. 
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TWO WEAK TO MODERATE 
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN WALKED SOUTH, CLOSER TO 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET.