Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... http://ow.ly/i/7nWGU 
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!

N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday ! 
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWNW 

NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWRx 
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! http://ow.ly/i/7nWTb 
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. http://ow.ly/i/7nWV7 

Nilofar - Will track N-E from now and weaken !

Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity) 

Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.

Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" intensifying Rapidly , a "CAT-4"cyclone

#Chennai - Today had a DRY day. Now low-level winds is from N-N-E and expected to change to E-N-E in 36 hrs S-S-E bay circulation moves west

Scattered showers may push into N,central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai around morning, mid-morning.

5:30pm, less T showers today over Tamilnadu. T showers seen over S Tip, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nikQ 

A weak W.D circulation over N-central Pakistan is giving scattered showers  over N Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.. http://ow.ly/i/7nix8 
During next 24hrs, the W.D circulation is expected to drift E-N-E and vanish.

5:30pm, Severe smog visibility less than 500 meters in Kabarwala, S Punjab... ow.ly/i/7niRC

3:25pm, Rain in Lahore, Pakistan... Due to WD... ow.ly/i/7niZk

Nilofar - has intensified during past 6hrs..
Pressure now 959.7mb
Winds upto 185 kmph
"Drifted North".. http://ow.ly/i/7nfwt 

Here's the Cyclone Nilofar's intensity pattern so far.. http://ow.ly/i/7nfF7 
" during past 24hrs, weakening and strengthening seen "

RT @sanjeevnaique: Sun has just appeared here in Pune , temp. hovering around 26 deg cent with light cool breeze as no sign of rain 10:45am

Nilofar - slight weakening seen & drifted N-N-W

1pm, Visible shot shows a GOOD eye and good convective activity around center, N-E outer bands.
At present, Nilofar is a severe cyclone with minimum pressure at 982.2mb (have weakened during past 12hrs).
During past 15hrs, the system has drifted N-N-W ... present position is 16.12 N , 61.25 E.

In next 42hrs, under the influence of W.D trough the cyclone is expected to drift North and then N-E.

Latest models continue to suggest a N-E re-curve after nearing 20N and expected to intensify and then weaken before making landfall along Kutch, Gujarat on 1-Nov.
It may rapidly dissipate while reaching coast !

Lossing strength-NILOFAR

[1] The moisture feeder from South Indian Ocean for the system is cut off.

[2]Dry cold wind from land is engulfing the system. Thus prohibiting TC enhancement.

[3] The lack of clear upper air divergence or its shrinking flange  is a indicator

[4] However another wind shear closer to eastern side of the present location will brew cloud formation

[5] This same times may alter the track.  Winds from STH from Asiatic regions [i.e one at Mongolia , China ] is extending its tentacles from NE to Indian Continent including TN. 

[6] Yet another is just N-NW of India and influencing 'NILOFAR' movement.

[7] As of now the track is N NW and to change course to Indian West Coast to cross between Panjim to Gulf of Khambat.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" now a "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm"