The full moon & SST effect over cloud mass

[1] The Sea Surface Temperature close to Choramandal Coast are NOT so conducive for the development of convective clouds / TC

[2] The clouds continuously develop and dissipate in situ in between the region 82.8 Deg East  / 10.0 Deg North and 85.0 Deg East / 11.3 Deg North

[3] During full moon day [17/11/2013] due to gravitational pull it may come closer to land and cross with very fewer heavy spell,  But wind will be of the order of 30-40 knots.

#Chennai - 2:10pm, DRY so far with temp around 30 C. Stiff breeze from N-N-W. Less low cloud formations seen with hazy skies.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 2.00pm, Sunny, warm and breezy., Patches of clouds in the sky.. a pic. http://t.co/1cxjYxOnNX

30W - Drifted S-W and Super Saturday (Heavy rain) for #Chennai, N,central Tamilnadu coast.

Latest analysis show that winds around the system is organized, While the satellite IR shows a exposed center with convective activity seen only over N-W,N, and N-E quadrants.

Position as of 12:30pm is 10.8 N , 85.2 E
Winds gusting upto 55 kmph
Pressure around 1000mb, so it is still a Depression.

NAVGEM model suggests a N-W track from now and landfall along #Chennai on evening of 15-Nov.

IMD, COLA GFS models suggest a central,N-central Tamilnadu coast landfall on 15-Nov-2013.

Moderate to heavy Rain expected to start along central, N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and S coast Andhra from noon/evening of 15-Nov.
Heavy and Very heavy rain expected in these zones towards early morning of 16-Nov (Saturday).
Forecast of Super Saturday for #Chennai, Tamilnadu coast is still valid.

The latest sat imagery & Sat wind [14.11.2013 /0030Z]

 The depression with 1000 hPa central pressure and lays centered about 600 km East /SE of KARAIKAL is getting organized and intensifying.

Gale winds [40-50 knots] with intermittent heavy rains [>125.0mm] may be experienced along and off Choramandal coast [Vedaranyam to Nellore] from 36 hrs now onwrds i.e on 15.11.2013 / 2000 hrs IST.


[Thanks to Shri SWP, meteorologist]

COLD north #India, today morning Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) recorded a low temp of 6.6ºC

@zenrainman >> #Bangalore will get its share of rain from 30W towards Saturday evening and into Sunday.

#Chennai - as per the latest of Depression 30W, City can expect a Super (Heavy rain) Saturday !

Latest on 30W - JTWC issues Cyclone formation alert !

JTWC warning for present depression 30W - "POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH"

6:30pm, This is the latest satellite IR of Depression 30W over Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3IcWE 

5:30pm Wind analysis of 30W shows that the system has drifted W-N-W during past 6hrs...  http://ow.ly/i/3IdlF 

HEAVY rain over S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu... Colachel 10 cm, Thiruvananthapuram 9 cm

Rainfall till 8:30am today, taken from http://www.imdchennai.gov.in

TAMIL NADU:

    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) 10, Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist) 9, Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist) 8, Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari Dist) and  Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist) 6 each, Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Tiruchendur, Toothukudi and  Satankulam (all Toothukudi Dist) 5 each, Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist) 4, Bhoothapandy and  Mylaudy (both Kanyakumari Dist), Mettupalayam and  Valparai pto (both Coimbatore Dist) and  Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist) 3 each, Periyar (Theni Dist), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist) and  Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) 2 each and  Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist), Ayikudi, Palayamkottai,  Sankarankoil and  Sivagiri (all Tirunelveli Dist), Gudalur (Theni Dist) and  Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist) 1 each.

KERALA: 

    Thiruvananthapuram City, Thiruvananthapuram AP and  Aryankavu (Kollam district) 9 each, Nedumangad and  Neyyattinkara (both in Thiruvananthapuram district), Kayamkulam (Alappuzha district) and  Piravom (Ernakulam district) 8 each and Chengannur (Alappuzha district) and  Kurudamannil (Pathanamthitta district) 7 each,  Punalur (Kollam district) and  Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram district) 6 each, Kottayam, Mavelikkara and  Kayamkulam_Agri (both in Alappuzha district), and  Konni (Pathanamthitta district) 5 each, Peermade (Idukki district) 4,  Alappuzha,  Mancompu and  Haripad (both in Alappuzha district), Kochi A.P (Ernakulam district), Kozha and  Kanjirappally (both in Kottayam district) and  Idukki 3 each, Aluva and  Perumbavur (both in Ernakulam district), Kollam and  Thrithala (Palakkad district) 2 each and Vellanikkara (Thrissur district), Cherthala (Alappuzha district), Ernakulam South (Ernakulam district), Thodupuzha (Idukki district), Vaikom (Kottayam district), Pattambi (Palakkad district) and   Minicoy (Lakshadweep) 1 each.

30W is now a Depression, HEAVY rain ahead for N, central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai on 15-Nov

Latest analysis at 11:30am, show that "30W" has drifted W-N-W during past 12hrs and it has intensified into a Depression now.
Present location is 11.9 N , 86 E.
Pressure is around 1001 mb and Winds gusting upto 60 kmph.

Satellite visible shot at 2:30pm, shows HEAVY convective activity along its N,N-W,N-E, E quadrant. Still the Southern quadrant is lacking convective activity.
From now on the upper level steering winds or Jet stream at 200hpa is expected to guide the system N-W or W-N-W.

Latest GFS model run suggests a N-central Tamilnadu coast landfall on 15-Nov.

Heavy rain warning for N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and into S Andhra coast on 15-Nov.
Showers are expected to start along #Chennai and North Tamilnadu coast from noon / evening of 14-Nov.

On today, 13-Nov, Heavy rain expected over S,W Tamilnadu and over S Kerala.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN / YOLANDA - Videos

Heavy rain along S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu

"30W" over S-Central Bay is now a Depression, pressure around 1001mb and has tracked W-N-W... more on this coming up !

Nagercoil (S tip Tamilnadu) got HEAVY rain from 4am to 8am today.

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Kashmir Valley freezes at sub-zero temp http://t.co/5jDQTgnLO3 

RT @ManoramaEnglish: Rain batters Kerala capital, rail traffic disrupted http://t.co/26uDfcOyuL 

12pm, Showers continue along S,central Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3I1oL 

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 9.15am, Fog / misty morning, Dry spell continues, Clear skies, Sun is peeping out..rain rain come again... 

#Chennai - 1pm, Another DRY day with stiff breeze from N-N-W, N.

Less low cloud formations seen.