Latest on 30W - JTWC issues Cyclone formation alert !

JTWC warning for present depression 30W - "POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH"

6:30pm, This is the latest satellite IR of Depression 30W over Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3IcWE 

5:30pm Wind analysis of 30W shows that the system has drifted W-N-W during past 6hrs...  http://ow.ly/i/3IdlF 

HEAVY rain over S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu... Colachel 10 cm, Thiruvananthapuram 9 cm

Rainfall till 8:30am today, taken from http://www.imdchennai.gov.in

TAMIL NADU:

    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) 10, Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist) 9, Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist) 8, Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari Dist) and  Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist) 6 each, Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Tiruchendur, Toothukudi and  Satankulam (all Toothukudi Dist) 5 each, Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist) 4, Bhoothapandy and  Mylaudy (both Kanyakumari Dist), Mettupalayam and  Valparai pto (both Coimbatore Dist) and  Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist) 3 each, Periyar (Theni Dist), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist) and  Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) 2 each and  Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist), Ayikudi, Palayamkottai,  Sankarankoil and  Sivagiri (all Tirunelveli Dist), Gudalur (Theni Dist) and  Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist) 1 each.

KERALA: 

    Thiruvananthapuram City, Thiruvananthapuram AP and  Aryankavu (Kollam district) 9 each, Nedumangad and  Neyyattinkara (both in Thiruvananthapuram district), Kayamkulam (Alappuzha district) and  Piravom (Ernakulam district) 8 each and Chengannur (Alappuzha district) and  Kurudamannil (Pathanamthitta district) 7 each,  Punalur (Kollam district) and  Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram district) 6 each, Kottayam, Mavelikkara and  Kayamkulam_Agri (both in Alappuzha district), and  Konni (Pathanamthitta district) 5 each, Peermade (Idukki district) 4,  Alappuzha,  Mancompu and  Haripad (both in Alappuzha district), Kochi A.P (Ernakulam district), Kozha and  Kanjirappally (both in Kottayam district) and  Idukki 3 each, Aluva and  Perumbavur (both in Ernakulam district), Kollam and  Thrithala (Palakkad district) 2 each and Vellanikkara (Thrissur district), Cherthala (Alappuzha district), Ernakulam South (Ernakulam district), Thodupuzha (Idukki district), Vaikom (Kottayam district), Pattambi (Palakkad district) and   Minicoy (Lakshadweep) 1 each.

30W is now a Depression, HEAVY rain ahead for N, central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai on 15-Nov

Latest analysis at 11:30am, show that "30W" has drifted W-N-W during past 12hrs and it has intensified into a Depression now.
Present location is 11.9 N , 86 E.
Pressure is around 1001 mb and Winds gusting upto 60 kmph.

Satellite visible shot at 2:30pm, shows HEAVY convective activity along its N,N-W,N-E, E quadrant. Still the Southern quadrant is lacking convective activity.
From now on the upper level steering winds or Jet stream at 200hpa is expected to guide the system N-W or W-N-W.

Latest GFS model run suggests a N-central Tamilnadu coast landfall on 15-Nov.

Heavy rain warning for N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and into S Andhra coast on 15-Nov.
Showers are expected to start along #Chennai and North Tamilnadu coast from noon / evening of 14-Nov.

On today, 13-Nov, Heavy rain expected over S,W Tamilnadu and over S Kerala.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN / YOLANDA - Videos

Heavy rain along S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu

"30W" over S-Central Bay is now a Depression, pressure around 1001mb and has tracked W-N-W... more on this coming up !

Nagercoil (S tip Tamilnadu) got HEAVY rain from 4am to 8am today.

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Kashmir Valley freezes at sub-zero temp http://t.co/5jDQTgnLO3 

RT @ManoramaEnglish: Rain batters Kerala capital, rail traffic disrupted http://t.co/26uDfcOyuL 

12pm, Showers continue along S,central Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3I1oL 

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 9.15am, Fog / misty morning, Dry spell continues, Clear skies, Sun is peeping out..rain rain come again... 

#Chennai - 1pm, Another DRY day with stiff breeze from N-N-W, N.

Less low cloud formations seen.

Rain in Kerala today !!

RT @kiranvijay87: It's raining #kerala #home #pattambi http://t.co/Fifit93COOO  (3:56pm)

RT @1stepNorth: enjoying the #rain from inside the car #kerala #downpour http://vine.co/v/hTvOu6eJprU (1:17pm)

"30W" - drifting W-S-W and NO intensification seen

Latest 3:30pm, satellite visible shows good convective activity over and around the system.

Position as of 11:30am is 10.5 N , 86.8 E
Pressure is still around 1005mb

JTWC warning at 8am IST states that "THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS  

MEDIUM."

Latest model(s) suggest a slight intensification into Depression and expects it to move W, W-S-W and make landfall along Central Tamilnadu coast on 15-Nov-2013.

Due to "30W" LOW ... showers expected to start along Tamilnadu coast from 14-Nov, evening.
On 15-Nov, HEAVY and widespread rain expected along central,N coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai and into S Andhra coast.
Showers along Tamilnadu coast is expected to persist after 30W till 18-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/3HoN2 

On 18-Nov, S-S-E Bay is expected to pop another circulation, this can become Cyclone "HELEN"

Upper level W.D trough seen over N Pakistan, Kashmir ... and the circulation will push into N-W Kashmir in 18hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/3HojM 

Due to this W.D, Scattered rain / snow expected over Kashmir and N Himachal during next 24hrs.

Rain over central Kerala and DRY over rest of #India

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 2.10pm, Sunny n hot, development of clouds in the horizon..after a gap of two weeks.. will it rain today???!! 

RT @SalmanPM_: @weatherofindia still raining at #Kochi (2:55pm)

#Chennai - 3:10pm, Another DRY day with some low cloud formations. Temperature is 30.8 °C and pressure is 1008mb ... http://chennai.indianweatherman.com/

3:30pm, Showers seen over central Kerala and coastal Tamilnadu getting cloudy ... http://ow.ly/i/3HnJP 

Today, below normal COLD morning for W Rajasthan, Himachal, Kashmir, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.

Adampur (Punjab) recorded a low of 6.6ºC

"30W" - moved W-S-W, now a LOW pressure system

During the past 12hrs, the circulation "30W" over S-E central Bay has moved W-S-W.
Now the pressure is around 1005mb.
Location is approximately around 11.4N , 88.4 E... still the system has an elongated low level circulation.

An intensification into a depression is expected on Wednesday, 13-Nov-2013 over S-W central Bay.
Latest GFS expects a landfall as Depression over Central Tamilnadu coast on 15-Nov.

Till evening of Wednesday, T showers expected over W-ghats of Kerala, W-ghats, S Tamilnadu.

For coastal Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S coast Andhra, HEAVY rain to start from evening of 14-Nov or morning of 15-Nov.

Latest satellite at 11pm (11-Nov) shows less convective activity seen around the LOW.