@thom_vee >> Follow our tweets @weatherofindia or visit www.indianweatherman.com for more on "Where has our monsoon gone??" . Thanks

RT @thom_vee: Where has our Monsoon gone?: A question I get asked frequently is ... http://bit.ly/beum0p

2 distinct report advisories for Cyclone "Phet" as of 5:30am IST, 2-Jun ... http://ow.ly/1SROC

2 distinct report advisories for Cyclone "Phet" as of 5:30am IST, 2-Jun

There are 2 distinct report advisories for 0000 Hrs UTC on 2nd. June. I give below both of them, as they are giving different views on the wind speed and Category of the current strenght of "Phet".

IMD Advisory: THE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERFE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVED IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 02ND  JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND LONG. 61.50E, ABOUT 1200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI.SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 986 HPA. (This is Cat 1)
JTWC Advisory: POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 956 (This is Cat 2)
(Note: Wind Speeds mentioned above are based on one minute averages. India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses a 3 minutes averaging for the sustained wind. The maximum sustained wind mentioned in the bulletins used by IMD is the highest 3 minutes surface wind occurring within the circulation of the system.)

Different Views on Projected Track:
IMD: THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS GUJARAT & ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST
JTWC: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS.
THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS.
THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATUREINTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS.

Actual fact:  Cyclone PHET has tracked towards Oman more than expected in a North Northwestwards direction.
Putting forward the different predictions and status. Readers to decide further ! Feedbacks welcome.
kapadias@gmail.com

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" .. Update # 5 ... Now a severe cyclone (category 2) and has moved in North-west direction ... http://ow.ly/1SQ82

@pradx >> Rain in Mumbai is due to combination of both Cyclone "Phet" and Pre-Monsoon.

RT @max4974: @weatherofindia its raining in chembur! How about your locality. raininginmumbai (12:36am)

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 5.. Severe Cyclone now and moved North-West

Now a category 2 Cyclone and moved North West


JTWC warning
--------------------------------

020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED 
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THERE IS 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 15 NM RAGGED 
EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, 
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS 
FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS. 
AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY 
FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS. THE EASTERN CLUSTER 
(ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK 
SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER 
TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN 
ARABIAN SEA. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE POSSIBLE
PROBLEMS WITH BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY INTO OMAN. GFS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE WITH TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WHILE
NOGAPS HAS RECENTLY JUMPED WEST AND SHOWS SOME INTERACTION OF
THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON
THESE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND THE AVAILABLE DATA, THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EASTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT 
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE 
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. 
TC 03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE 
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z

JTWC projected path
-------------------------------------

Satellite shot
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Wednesday 12 mid-night...its raining here in Mumbai now! at last !Thunderclouds in the east seen since evening

Rains bring respite to sweltering Hyderabad ... http://ow.ly/1Su7O