There are 2 distinct report advisories for 0000 Hrs UTC on 2nd. June. I give below both of them, as they are giving different views on the wind speed and Category of the current strenght of "Phet".
IMD Advisory: THE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERFE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVED IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 02ND JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND LONG. 61.50E, ABOUT 1200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI.SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 986 HPA. (This is Cat 1)
JTWC Advisory: POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 956 (This is Cat 2)
(Note: Wind Speeds mentioned above are based on one minute averages. India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses a 3 minutes averaging for the sustained wind. The maximum sustained wind mentioned in the bulletins used by IMD is the highest 3 minutes surface wind occurring within the circulation of the system.)
Different Views on Projected Track:
IMD: THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS GUJARAT & ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST
JTWC: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS.
THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS.
THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATUREINTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS.
Actual fact: Cyclone PHET has tracked towards Oman more than expected in a North Northwestwards direction.
Putting forward the different predictions and status. Readers to decide further ! Feedbacks welcome.
kapadias@gmail.com
Dear Rajesh,
ReplyDeleteI do not know much about JTWC and their calculations. But whatever calculations that our apex weather body of India is giving is procedural scientific and systematic.
Even there is every possibility that the VSCS(super cyclone?) is turning towards OMEN coast, the other options which are (perhaps) lesser possible are also taken into consideration before deciding any thing.
True.I have put up the comparison to show the difference in the two advisories.But,a difference in pressure, 986 and 956 is too much !
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