Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 5.. Severe Cyclone now and moved North-West

Now a category 2 Cyclone and moved North West


JTWC warning
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020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED 
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THERE IS 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 15 NM RAGGED 
EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, 
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS 
FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS. 
AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY 
FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS. THE EASTERN CLUSTER 
(ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK 
SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER 
TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN 
ARABIAN SEA. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE POSSIBLE
PROBLEMS WITH BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY INTO OMAN. GFS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE WITH TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WHILE
NOGAPS HAS RECENTLY JUMPED WEST AND SHOWS SOME INTERACTION OF
THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON
THESE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND THE AVAILABLE DATA, THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EASTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT 
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE 
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. 
TC 03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE 
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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