Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 4 ..."Why "laila" will steer away from land??".... http://ow.ly/1Mojm

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 4

JTWC - projected path
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Why "Laila" will trace the JTWC 's projected path??
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Upto Tamilnadu coast the upper wind is from East to West.
Just above the land, the upper wind pattern is from S-W to North-East.
This will steer the "Laila" away from Land after coming very close to Land.
Anything can happen.

IMD warning
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BOB 01/2010/04                                                                                               Dated: 18.05.2010 

Time of issue: 0730 hours IST

Sub:      Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA ‘ over southeast and adjoining southwest  Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert.    

               The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas moved westwards, intensified 

into a Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA’ and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today,the 18 th May 2010 over southeast and 

adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 11.50N and 86.50E, about 700 km east-southeast of 

Chennai, 800 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1300 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

               The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the 

system is likely to intensify further and  move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

               Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track

 and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
18-05-2010/0530	11.5/86.5	65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1130	11.5/86.0	65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1730	12.0/85.5	75-85gusting to 95
18-05-2010/2330	12.5/85.0	75-85gusting to 95
19-05-2010/0530	13.0/84.5	85-95 gusting to 105
19-05-2010/1730	14.0/83.5	85-95 gusting to 105
20-05-2010/0530	15.0/82.5	95-105 gusting to 115
20-05-2010/1730	16.0/82.0	95-105 gusting to 115
21-05-2010/0530	17.0/81.0	75-85gusting to 95

               Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to 

experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010. Gale force wind 

with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today,the

18th night. 

               Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today the 18th night.

 Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea.

               The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

               Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today,the 18th May 2010.

Satellite shot at 11 am IST
-----------------------------

RT @gupt: I want rain!! RT: @mamatha_m: Cyclone to hit AP tomorrow.......so rain in Hyderabad?!

Cyclone "01 B" is named as "LAILA"

Chennai - Will Cyclone "01 B" touch Chennai or N. Tamilnadu coast .. ?? ... http://ow.ly/1Mmqr

Chennai - Is heavily cloudy from morning ... Why ?? http://ow.ly/1MmpV

Cyclone "01 B" (no-name) .. for more, keep tracking .. www.indianweatherman.com

Immediate update :: Cyclone "01 B" .. Update #3 ... http://ow.ly/1Mmoy

Cyclone "01 B" .. Update #3

JTWC
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180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 172338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARING WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND KNES AS WELL AS THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING 35-KNOT 
UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 01B IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH 
TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A 
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15-20 KNOT 
RATE, THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SST/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8:30am IST
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At this point of time .. IMD website is down