Wednesday, July 01, 2015

How is the South West Monsoon going to behave in July ?

1. MJO: the current phase of very weak MJO in our seas is prevelent, and with a slight "blip" in the Northern region seen thru OLR images, we see the Northern Bay showing signs of of a UAC formation soon. UAC may effect Eastern States of India and the NE States with precipitation in first week of July.
Rains increasing in Kolkata from Sunday 5th.
But the weak MJO phase ( Though gradually moving out of the very weak phase) in the Southern seas continues  and without any Eastward propagation for the next 10-12 days.
Long Term forecasts show the MJO "improving", that is first getting "Neutral" by around 14th July, and then gradually strengthening after 17th July.
As a result, we have a strong MJO wave in the Western pacific. We may even see a typhoon form in the Western Pacific next week.

2.El Nino: This event has strengthened in the last 15 days. SOI is at -9.0. and the Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week.

3. The Monsoon axis remains North of its normal position till the 8th at least.Rains expected in Eastern U.P, Bihar and Sikkim and Himalayan W.Bengal next week.

4. A WD moves into the Northern Sub Continent around 6th July. This would merge with the Western end of the Monsoon axis and bring good precipitation to Northern Pakistan and Northern India.

5. Next 8-10 days, Precipitation remains lower than normal in the Peninsula, Western Region, Central Region, NW region of India. Also in Central and Southern Pakistan rains will be below normal. Monsoon may move into remaining Sindh and Pakistan after 7th/8th July.

From vagaries...

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