Sunday, May 17, 2015

Monsoon Watch -4  Part II....Quantum Estimate for SWM..

If we take into account, that the ENSO is today is El Nino and "leaning" towards a stronger El-Nino phase by,say,July, then:

a) Till July, we can see slightly below normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of  Sub-Continent regions. Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months will see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.

During the Northern track of the system, the monsoon trough could be pulled far North into the Himalayas, and possibility of "short "break Monsoon in 3rd week of July or near around that time period.
Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepalmore so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji/Mawsynram seems the likely candidate for the highest SWM rains).

Full Article in Vagaries

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