Parameters getting right for Monsoon onset over Kerala on 1-Jun-2015

1-Jun, the famous SW monsoon date is nearing... and the parameters are getting right for onset over Kerala coast on 1-Jun-2015.

Today as well, the N-S low-level trough from Bihar is seen upto N-E Andhra and will persist for next 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/b0gqx 

Today, an upper-level (500hpa) weak circulation seen over central Bay and expected to drift W-S-W in 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/b0gtS 

On the day of Monsoon onset over Kerala, E-W mid-level (700hpa) wind shear zone will / should run thru 13/14N !
At present this mid-level wind shear zone is running from central Andaman to central Maldives... http://ow.ly/i/b0gEX 
Today's upper-level (500hpa) circulation over central Bay will drop a mid-level (700hpa) circulation in same location in next 36hrs.
And this mid-level circulation is expected to drift West towards Tamilnadu coast on 30,31-May... http://ow.ly/i/b0gLL 
Gradually moving the mid-level E-W wind shear zone to North.
So, monsoon for S-E Srilanka, Colombo expected on 31-May.

Latest GFS model, the Monsoon will reach S-coast Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu on its designated date " 1-Jun-2015 " .. http://ow.ly/i/b0gSC 
GFS forecast for Trivandrum shows...
700hpa winds change to Westerlies on 31-May / 1-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/b0hak 

Meanwhile T shower activity over Kerala, N,N-W,central Tamilnadu to increase from today !
27-May... T showers for N,central,N-W,W-ghats of Tamilnadu and N,central,W-ghats of Kerala... http://ow.ly/i/b0hok 
28-May...
T showers again for N,central,N-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu and scattered all over Kerala.
S-coast Kerala, S-tip coast Tamilnadu can get early morning rain on 28-May.
27,28-May... some T showers are expected to pop into S,S-E Karnataka as well.

Nor'westers again for N,central Bengal and E Bihar on 27,28-May.
AND
More HEAVY rain to continue over many zones of N-E states of India.
On evening, late-evening of 28-May... T showers, dust storm possible for N,N-W Rajasthan and even into S Punjab.