Cyclone "Mahasen" - In striking distance, Bangladesh !

11:30pm, Satellite IR shows Deep convections and the cloud mass is starting to push into South Bangladesh.
Pressure remains the same around 989 mb and Winds are still gusting up to 85 kmph.

:: WARNING ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Latest COLA model suggests that the Cyclone will cross into S-E Bangladesh by tomorrow noon.

Heavy rain and strong winds expected for most of South,central,East Bangladesh during next 24hrs.
Heavy rain also expected for S,central of N-E states of India.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

POSITION NEAR 18.9N 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS 
UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS 
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. A SERIES 
OF SCATTEROMETRY PASSES AT 150333Z, 150419Z, AND 150629Z SUPPORT 35 
TO 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES 
AND PGTW AND THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO BETTER VERTICAL ALIGNMENT WITH THE LLCC, 
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO LOW LEVELS (10 
KNOTS). THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
POLEWARD ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE 
SYSTEM OVERLAND. A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS 
EXPECTED AS THE LLCC REMAINS IN A LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT, BUT DUE TO 
THE TRACK SPEED AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF BANGLADESH, THIS 
INCREASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UPON 
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 
36. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING THE JTWC 
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 
FEET