Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Helen - Almost NO movement and Slightly intensified

Latest analysis at 6pm, shows that HELEN has not moved greatly, drifted slightly to W-N-W again.
In fact it has intensified slightly.
Latest pressure at core is around 992mb and winds reaching upto 100 kmph.
Positioned at 15.41 N, 84.01 E at 6pm.

Visible satellite shot at 4:45pm, show GOOD convective activity around its center.

Wind analysis at 5:30pm show, high winds of above 65kmph around center.

Computer Models still consider a Near Nellore, Ongole landfall as Cyclone by evening / late evening of 21-Nov, Thursday.
JTWC has forecast a path towards central Andhra coast, between Ongole - Bapatla - Machilipatnam


What are the present forces acting on the Cyclone?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are anti-cyclones at low levels over North Arabian Sea and over central Arabian sea at upper levels. These can guide the system to move in a W-S-W direction in next 12hrs.
And moreover the models expect the central Arabian sea (upper level) Anti-cyclone to move into South Peninsula in next 18hrs and this can weaken the Cyclone before landfall.


Wind and Rainfall forecast ::
------------------------------------------
Latest RADAR image from Visakapatnam shows the Cyclone over its South and Machilipatnam RADAR starting to show HELEN over its East at around 200 to 250km from coast.

Going by latest status and model forecasts.
Central, North Andhra coast to start receiving light to moderate rain with winds gusts from morning / mid morning of Thursday. Rain and wind intensity will start to increase after from mid-noon tomorrow.
S Andhra coast is in for moderate rain from mid-noon tomorrow.
N.Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai can get showers only after the landfall, that is after midnight of 21-Nov.

No comments:

Post a Comment