Monday, October 29, 2012

"93W" - Intensifying into a Deep Depression and drifting West

1pm, Slow moving Depression now and Showing signs of intensifying into a Deep Depression in next 6hrs.
May become as a Number tropical storm by Midnight today.
Here's the latest Satellite IR image at 1pm


IMD model suggests a central & North Tamilnadu coast hit on 31-Oct.

NOGAPS model suggests a hit around S-E & Central Tamilnadu coast on afternoon of 31-Oct.


IMD warning at 11:30am IST
------------------------------------------------

Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at
0830 hrs IST of today, the 29
th
 October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.5

0
N and 
longitude  83.5
0
E,  about  530  km  southeast  of  Chennai  (Tamilnadu)  and  270  km  northeast  of 
Trincomalee  (Srilanka).  The  system  would  intensify  further  into  a  cyclonic  storm  and  move 
westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and 
adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31
st
 October, 2012 
evening/night.


JTWC warning at 9am IST
--------------------------------------------------
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 84.7E TO 11.1N 79.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290300Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 83.7E.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 
84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHEAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 282354Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE 
LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE 
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL 
MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM TO 
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 06-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING 
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.



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