Monday, October 29, 2012

"93W" is now a Depression.. Expected to move West

7:30am, "93W" is now a Depression.
Latest position ...
Position  ::  9.6N , 83.7E
Wind   ::    Around 45 km/hr
Pressure ::  1000mb.
Here's the latest visible satellite pic...
Almost NO movement for the past 6hrs, but good consolidation seen. Heavy convective activity seen all around the core.

IMD warning at 2am IST
-----------------------------------------

Sub:  Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal:
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs
IST of today, the 28th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.5N and longitude
84.5E, about 600 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 350 km east-northeast of Trincomalee
(Srilanka). The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently
into a marginal cyclonic storm. The system would move westwards towards north Sri Lanka and
Tamil Nadu coast.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy
rainfall would commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from today onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph would commence along and off north Tamil Nadu
and Puducherry coasts from today i.e 29th
 October 2012 afternoon onwards. Sea condition will be
rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from that period.
Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts, who are out at sea are advised to return
to the coast.
The system is under constant surveillance.


JTWC warning at 11:30pm, 28-Oct-2012
-------------------------------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A SLIGHTLY 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD 
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

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