The low pressure in the Bay is now situated at 10N and 96.5 E. Core pressure at 1007 mb, it has entered the Bay area, hence vagaries numbers it as BB-10.
BB-10 is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c.
Now, as we have earlier discussed possibilities of the tracks before, the WD factor seems to be out of question as far as the timing of this BB-10 is concerned.
There is no WD coming.
In fact, what is favourable for TN is the possibility of a High pressure developing around the Bangladesh region.
With this, we could very well see BB-10 tracking due West...and hope for good rains along TN and AP areas when it reaches land, as system can strengthen upto depression at least.
more on vagaries.
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