Chennai - 7:44pm, heavy rain for the past 20 min in chromepet zone

#Chennai - 4:30pm, a sharp shower seen over N-W suburbs of city, and Another heavy T.shower approaching W-S-W suburbs, now at 60km from city

#chennai - 4pm, showers popping out over W-S-W, around 85km from city.

2:30pm, Showers continue along Karnataka coast, T..showers popping over S.Gujarat, S,E,N.Maharastra, Odisha & Bengal.. http://ow.ly/i/JDFn 

RT @dipikac: Life in Mumbai city during the rains...Dreams. Destiny. Doors.: Dekho baarish ho rahi hai, it's raining... http://t.co/JqUgD2QQ 

RT @saifarash: @weatherofindia 3pm- sky is cloudy but no rain #Malappuram #Kerala #Monsoon 

#chennai - 2:28pm, good strong low level sea breeze has set in... cloud formations seen over North of city.

@chirag_roshan >> For Gujarat, monsoon is expected to reach around 5/6-Jul... initially it'll be for the South,S-W and S-E.

Till 1-Jul, showers for N,N-W Maharastra coast will be on lower side & from 2-Jul very heavy widespread rains forecast. http://ow.ly/i/JDqw

Monsoon expected to push inland towards #delhi from East after 4-Jul !

in next 24hrs, Heavy rain forecast for Orissa, S.Chatisgarh.. and T.showers to continue for N,E. Maharastra.. http://ow.ly/i/JDrI

E.India to get into rains again from 3-Jul

There's NO Western disturbance till 6-Jul and beyond ... almost coming to an END of it!

@aghorii >> Hyderabad Airport records 0.6 mm of rain till 8:30am today. While Visakapatnam airport records 41.8mm.

Today, N-E Bay is having a strong low level circulation... http://ow.ly/i/JDok

RT @emkay456: @weatherofindia highly localised rain, sunny in South Mumbai  @Polkhol @SufiyanaSoul (2:09pm)

RT @aviraj111: Insane rain near Ghatkopar #mumbai (2:02pm)

RT @polkhol: @SufiyanaSoul awesome rain in mumbai... mausam is superb yaar. ... (2:02pm)

@nakulparameswar >> Monsoon for #Delhi after 6-Jul

#chennai - having a Deep blue sky day, with strong winds from West till 12pm, records 36.0°C at 12:40pm.

#chennai - 1:23pm, the ground level gusts from West is almost coming to a stop.. signs of Sea breeze setting in.


1pm North HOT !! Varanasi = 43.0°C , #Delhi = 42.0°C, Lucknow = 41.0°C, Amristar = 40.0°C

Today, vertical velocity over S,central Andhra, N.Tamilnadu, #chennai is high ... evening T.showers possible again .. http://ow.ly/i/JDh7 

The offshore trough along S-W coast is getting strong and extends upto N.Kerala coast.. http://ow.ly/i/JDdK

Today, Arabian sea monsoon current is getting strong along Karnataka & Maharastra coast.. http://ow.ly/i/JDel

Both Arabian Sea & Bay wing of Monsoon to get very strong from 2-Jul .. Good signs .. http://ow.ly/i/JDeE

On 1-Jul, an inland low level circulation is expected to pop over N.Chatisgarh, Jharkand & Bengal .. and move W-N-W... http://ow.ly/i/JDfi 

RT @iambarun: Special "WOW" to Mumbai rain.. :)  (12:53pm)

On 29-Jun, The highest maximum temperature of 45.2°C  was recorded at Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh)

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia; If rain is delayed the situation becomes worse.. http://ow.ly/bVChZ

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 10.00am, Cleary skies, Sunny, hot &  humid. Rains play traunts sofar this SWM... 

RT @cheyyaruarun: Its raining here in Tambaram, Chennai and as usual, I'm now missing #VijayAwards coz of @TataSky (7:13pm)

#chennai - pallavaram rain photo taken at 6:58pm.. http://ow.ly/bUAzr 

#chennai - 6:52pm, Heavy rain just started over #Pallavaram zone.

IMD :: Latest (28-Jun) SUBDIVISION-WISE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION for India ... http://ow.ly/bUxsq 

RT @ganpat000: @weatherofindia cover of clouds over South Delhi (5:03pm)

RT @aghorii: @weatherofindia @TOIHyderabad  Telegana and costal Andhra have recieved normal rains till now,

RT @devsingh911: @weatherofindia rains lash hyd http://t.co/ilmm5UjQ

RT @ravi_2kpp: Dark black clouds in sholinganallur, Chennai @ 18:00 (29/06/2012)  @weatherofindia http://t.co/82dfVrbk

#chennai - 6:23pm, a strong shower is inching towards W,S-W suburbs of city .. now around 40km away from city. 

RT @aghorii: @weatherofindia  it has been raining heavily in Hyderabad since last 1 hour, seems heaviest of the season. (4:52pm)

RT @toihyderabad: Ten districts staring at dry spell as rain plays truant http://t.co/qA9j3sbo 

@chhavikalra09 >> #Delhi will not get the monsoon showers till 7-Jul !

RT @ashitc: Not a single drop of rain in Kutch. @weatherofindia

RT @ashitc: @weatherofindia bright and sunny ; no sign of rains #navimumbai http://t.co/1R8UVjYa (9:12am)

#chennai - good low level sea breeze from E-S-E, and now 4;27pm, T.showers seen over W-N-W around 80km from city.

RT @9881342685: Rain in goa :) love it :) (12:45pm)

3pm, Heavy showers seen along Goa, Karnataka coast, N.Kerala and lakshadweep islands  .. http://ow.ly/i/Jsl5 

Today also the vertical velocity is on higher side over S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu , #chennai .. evening T.showers possible. http://ow.ly/i/Jsi2

Today the expected T.showers over N.Tamilnadu, #chennai and S.Andhra may extend into midnight .. http://ow.ly/i/Jsi2

Latest COLA model suggests that LESS rain for #Mumbai till 2-Jul, but Heavy rains for central,S.Maharastra coast.. http://ow.ly/i/Jsd3

Till 2-Jul, Heavy & widespread rains will continue for S.Maharastra coast, Goa, Karnataka coast and N.Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/JsdM

Meanwhile, T.showers expected for entire interior Maharastra, S.Chatisgarh, Orissa, isolated over N.Karnataka,N. Andhra http://ow.ly/i/JsdM

From 2-Jul, Heavy & widespread rains to break in over E,central.Maharastra, Chatisgarh,N,N-E.Andhra and Orissa .. http://ow.ly/i/JsfP

Less rain forecast for E.India and entire N-E states till 1-Jul, and pickup after that.

The last of the present W.D over Kashmir will last another 12 hrs.. and NO more W.D expected till 5-Jul

On 28-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 44.3°C was recorded at Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh)

Offshore trough along S-W coast persists and it's expected to deepen from today .. http://ow.ly/i/Js4Z

Today, a weak circulation can be seen along #Mumbai ... so far No rains for Mumbai, S.Konkan getting showers.. http://ow.ly/i/Js7F

A fresh UAC can be seen over N-E.Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/Js7F

The monsoon current is expected to pickup along S-W coast (Arabian sea) and very strong over Bay from tomorrow.. http://ow.ly/i/Js9M

Today, a medium level circulation can be seen over S.Maharastra and adjoining N.Karnataka... http://ow.ly/i/Jsbk

RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia NO RAINS SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING ... #Mumbai (9:56am)

#chennai - 3pm, getting ready for Sea breeze. From morning it was Clear & Humid. Records 36.0°C at 2:40pm.

@shanpati >> :) #Mumbai rain will start again from early hours (or) early morning of tomorrow.

Chennai Rains today

Meenambakkam – 35 mm
Guindy (Anna University) – 27
Kea Weather (Nungambakkam) – 25
Taramani – 23
Kolapakkam – 19
Nungambakkam - 18
Ennore – 15
Sholiganallur (Sathyabama University) – 13
Kattupakkam (Guduvancheri) – 9

RT @jj_clinton: @weatherofindia heavy showers in shozhinganallur nd surrounding fr d past 40 mins... (6:33pm)

RT @abdulrahmanmb: @weatherofindia Good Showers in T nagar area..water logging on roads (6:28pm)

RT @shivakumar: @weatherofindia  its raining in chengalpet (5:26pm)

RT @kmathan: Heyyyy!!! Its raining in Chengalpattu !! @weatherofindia (5:18pm)

RT @djgoundai: Got stuck in my way.its raining heavily!!! #Chennai http://t.co/goofD9Xv (6:14pm)

RT @natraj60: Loving this wet earth smell, outside my home at Anna nagar #Chennai @weatherofindia http://t.co/YwX8cuVw (5:56pm)

RT @devarya: Rain is upon Chennai @weatherofindia http://t.co/Wqe2UdvH (5:42pm)

#chennai - 6:08pm, Heavy rain continues now over Pallavaram zone. This is continuing for the past 45min

RT @thisismmk: @weatherofindia Near Velachery MRTS http://t.co/Ksdooms9 (6:08pm)

RT @deepak_eshwar: #firstrains #chennai as from the #marina #beach @weatherofindia http://t.co/kmDD47fj (6:13pm)

Chennai - rain started over pallavaram zone 5:23pm

RT @shanbhagsheetal: view from outside my home in #BannerghattaRoad, #Bangalore..its been a very light rain  http://t.co/3odxG6AG 

4pm, T.showers seen over N,N-E.Andhra, S.Chatisgarh, N.Karnataka, N.Tamilnadu & rains continue over coastal Karnataka. http://ow.ly/i/JhnN

RT @shanbhagsheetal: @weatherofindia Finally light rain showers in #BGRd #Bangalore. I am loving this #weather & the smell of soil (4:38pm)

#chennai - 4:15pm, lots of T.showers seen over West at 70km, S-W at 70km and North at 40km.. and moving East.. http://ow.ly/i/JhhE 

#chennai - 3:02pm, T.showers seen over North and W-N-W, around 80km from city.

RT @chhavikalra09: And reading all tweets abt rain in mumbai, m jealous! y so #hot in #delhi :(  >> #Delhi records 41.0°C at 2pm 

Present W.D is slowly moving East and expected to last till 29-Jun.

Isolated T.showers will linger over Haryana, Punjab, W.UP, Himachal, Uttarakand till 30-jun.. http://ow.ly/i/JgOa 

For next 24 to 48hrs, showers possible for S,S-W,N.Karnataka, N,N-E Andhra, E.Maharastra, S.Chatisgarh and Odisha .. http://ow.ly/i/JgFJ

Showers over E.India and entire N-E states will be on lower side from today till 30-Jun.. and will pickup after 1-Jul. http://ow.ly/i/JgGC

 #chennai - after a rainy yesterday evening for most parts of city, today till 2pm its HOT & mostly Clear. Records 37.0°C at 1:40pm

#chennai - now 2:21pm, have ground level winds from S-E, getting ready for a strong setting of Sea breeze and possible T.showers after 4pm

Today also vertical velocities are high over S.Karnataka, S,Andhra & N.tamilnadu, #chennai .. T.showers expected again. http://ow.ly/i/JgIG 

RT @shanbhagsheetal: ..Gods yet to shower bounty! Depleting reservoirs point possible #power crisis.Farmers are restless #Karnataka 

Today, there's a weak low level circulation over N.Bengal & N.Bangladesh ... http://ow.ly/i/Jgrk

Monsoon current to get strong over Arabian sea and will reach entire West coast except Gujarat during next 3 days.. http://ow.ly/i/JgrZ

Today, N-N-E Bay has popped an UAC ... http://ow.ly/i/Jgsz

Today's UAC over N-N-E Bay will move West into N-central Bay and stay for next 2 days.. http://ow.ly/i/Jgxv

In next 2days, an UAC is expected along N.Maharastra coast .. this'll increase the rainfall for #Mumbai & Maharastra.. http://ow.ly/i/Jgxv

The offshore trough along S-W coast, extends upto N.Kerala persists and it's expected to deepen further in coming days. http://ow.ly/i/JgpA

Offshore trough along S-W coast (Maharastra, Karnataka) will deepen in next 3 days.. more rain for Maharastra coast.. http://ow.ly/i/Jgqn 

RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.00am, Sunny, humid with passing clouds from SW. Short rain, last night brough some relief from the heat.

RT @atulgajbhiye: RT @ndtv: Mumbai roads, trains hit by heavy rain, more to come says met dept http://t.co/k7gbILz0 http://t.co/K79LphrH

RT @mandardeodhar3: Rain is trending in Mumbai >> Finally it's raining again in #Mumbai

#Mumbai - More heavy rains forecast till 30-Jun and beyond for City & entire Maharastra coast... http://ow.ly/i/JglV

On 27-Jun, highest maximum temperate of 44.3°C was recorded at Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh) 

As the West Coast Off shore trough persisit ( Quote:IMD), S.Konkan/Goa are Continuously lashed by rains. Goa too has achieved the 1000 mms mark for this Monsoon.
After Malvan in S.Konkan, it is Patgaon (1048 mms)  in Maharashtra and Pernem (1156 mms) and Quepem (1034 mms) in Goa.Gaganbavda (Kolhapur) is at 890mms, while Amboli was 812 mms ( till 25th June).
The strength of the trough is really showing its might in the region with heavy rains persisting. 5-11 cms in the last 24 hrs have added to the totals. Rains remain weak in North Konkan.
The reasons for the divided rains are clear from this IMD chart, showing a weak trough off N.Konkan.

Mumbai had 1.6 mms at Colaba and no rai at S'cruz or at Vagaries. The off shore trough will remain in position till at least Saturday. A further weakening of the monsoon trough can possibly strengthen the trough off n.Konkan . It is resisted by lack of energy and momentum (weak MJO aided). Mumbai can still hold out hopes for some improved rainfall for Thursday.

Meanwhile, much needed rains are lashing Chennai now, Wednesday evening/night.Rainfall measured upto 7 mms till night.
The rainfall from cross Kerala has crept in thru western TN.
http://rajesh26.blogspot.com

RT @im_vicky7: Oooh....rain!!!!!! loving tis weather in Chennai.....its raining tis heavily after a long time. (9:44pm)

RT @akileshsri: #Raining in #Chennai  http://t.co/O2iB5Yp4 (8:53pm)

#chennai - 8:55pm, strong drizzle & light showers approaching city from West. May last till midnight !

#chennai - 7pm, another good T.shower is now over Arakkonam zone, around 70km W,W-N-W from city.. and moving East.

Monsoon rains are not pushing above central Maharastra coast, T.showers seen over N.Karnataka and N-E Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/J7x9 

#chennai - a heavy T.shower with strong winds crossed S-W,South Suburbs of city.. now 6:30pm it's almost over sea.. http://ow.ly/i/J7tD 

Chennai - a super shower is now 5:30pm crossing or goin to cross tambaram

#chennai - now, sea breeze from E-S-E is seen upto a height of 0.9km above sea level.

#chennai - 4:40pm, heavy rains approaching S-W, West suburbs ! Conditions are good for the showers to cross the city and move into Sea.

#chennai - Madhavaram zone got good showers yesterday night !

#chennai - a good shower is approaching W,S-W Suburbs in another 15 to 30 min

#Chennai - now 3:35pm is having good strong Sea breeze from E-S-E and cloud formations as well.

RT @mody_shyamal: The #rain Gods are now just toying with #mumbai http://t.co/AZEQlPup (2:18pm)

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 1.40pm, Sunny, hot, humid and dry. Patches of Puffy clouds floating in the sky. No rain. 

@aghorii >> :-)) What is COLA? Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies .. http://ow.ly/bQV1q ... #education

#chennai - after a cloudy early morning, now 12:50pm it's partly cloudy, HOT and Humid. Records 36.0°C at 12:10pm.

#Chennai - Conditions are right for a Evening / late evening Shower for 27,28-Jun. Good vertical velocities are seen . http://ow.ly/i/J5Kn 

COLA models predict that Heavy widespread rain for Maharastra coast, Goa and Karnataka coast till 30-Jun and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/J5Id

#Mumbai waiting for Heavy & widespread rains ... expected in 24hrs !

Due to present W.D, Isolated T.showers possible for Haryana, Punjab, #Delhi , W.Uttarpradesh, Himachal & Uttarakand till 29-Jun

The activity of present W.D will last till 29-Jun

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia A pic of monsoon sky from air... http://t.co/mN7lOgh1 

11am, Showers seen upto S,central Maharastra coast .. http://t.co/AzTdJz0X >> Rains expected to cover entire Maharastra coast by today!

COLA models suggest that the expected 28-Jun circulation over N.Bay may be a weak one at low levels !!.. http://ow.ly/i/J5An

29-Jun will pop a moderate UAC over N-central Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/J5Bf

Tomorrow, the offshore trough along S-W coast may pop a weak UAC along S.Maharastra coast.. http://ow.ly/i/J5BX

On 26-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 43.3°C was recorded at Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh)

RT @bandra_local: The rain is belting down in goa! The train ride is going to be *facepalm* (10:49am)

11am, Heavy showers seen along Goa, Karnataka coast, and kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/J5za 

RT @aknarendranath: Less than normal rains in over 70% of country - The Times of India http://t.co/AQSIsnXR @weatherofindia

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 4.30pm, 26-jun, Cloudy sky, drizzle in some places. Dark clouds but not enough for rain, a pic http://t.co/TbmxQAUL

On Tuesday, Meaningfull resurging of the off shore trough along the west coast was limited to S.Konkan and Coastal Karnataka. Precipitation along the Karnataka coast (Honavar 42 mms penetrated inland resulting in much awaited rainfall in N.I.Karnataka on Tuesday evening. Bijapur, Bagalkot, Raichur (24 mms), and Bellary are receiving good rainfall while moderate rains are seen in Hubli, Gadag and surrounding regions.


Coastal rains from Kerala are also moving into the Nilgiri Districts of TN. West TN may see some rains next 2 days (mentioned in vagaries' forecast map of Monday). 
Coastal AP forecast remains as per Map.


In South Konkan, Ratnagiri is getting moderate rains, while Panjim guaged up 19 mms till 5.30pm Tuesday.


But, N.Konkan got nominal and scattered rainfall. Though heavy in few pockets, overall the day (Tuesday) saw thundershowers in a few places inland, and showers ranging from 5-25 mms in the day. Was expecting better rains in N.Konkan, including Mumbai Region on Tuesday/Wednesday. 

@shanbhagsheetal >As Arabian sea wing of Monsoon is getting strong from today, Evening showers are looking bright for #Bangalore till 30-Jun

#chennai - today having a High cloud cover with less low cloud formations... a good sea breeze has set in from 2pm and of NO use so far!

Conditions for evening showers are good from today evening till month end, for S.Karnataka, #Bangalore , S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu and #Chennai

Vertical velocities over S.Karnataka, S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu and #Chennai will be high on 26,27-Jun.. showers possible. http://ow.ly/i/IW0L 

Monsoon current seen strengthening along Central,N-central Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/IVVP

N-central Bay will pop an UAC on 28-Jun and it'll move West towards Orissa coast ... http://ow.ly/i/IVXh

On 29/30-Jun, Both Bay & Arabian sea will have an UAC.. Arabian sea UAC will be along Karnataka,Goa coast ... http://ow.ly/i/IVXP 

Next N.Bay circulation will pop on 29-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/IVTq

@vasuphani >> South extreme peninsula including S,central Kerala to get less rains during next 3 days

Rains over E.India states and N-E states will go down from today.. and remain less rains till 29-Jun.

Showers for S.Chatisgarh, Orissa, N,N-E Andhra will last for another 24hrs and then go down till 29-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/IVRH

The last of the present active W.D will leave some scattered showers for Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakand, #Delhi & W.UP from today till 28-Jun 

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia This may be worst monsoon in 30 years, warns IMD http://t.co/3kdE6d8X via @DNA

RT @nivi15: A weird weather in Mumbai...rain and sun at regular intervals! Full confusion (1:53pm)

1:30pm, Heavy & widespread rains seen along entire Karnataka coast, S,central Maharastra coast and N,central Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/IVPo

@afc4lyfe @nivi15 @hsadhvani >> Heavy rain forecast for #Mumbai and entire Maharastra coast from today evening!

Heavy & widespread rains for Maharastra coast, #Mumbai , and Karnataka (rain already started) from today till month end. http://ow.ly/i/IVQr 

Cherrapunji's gets 1743 mm rainfall in last 5 days with 772 mm rainfall in 24 hrs

I  have been waiting to see what Cherrapunji has produced in the last two days for the past 4 years. Atlast it came today morning at 8.30 am.Its not Cherrapunji which is getting battered in Meghalaya


Jowai has got  200 and 224 mm rainfall in 2 days.
Nongostin has got 266 and 172 mm rainfall in 2 days

Cherrapunji rainfall stats are as follows -

 1.Past 24 hrs rainfall - 222 mm
    27-06-2012 - 222 mm

2. Past 48 hrs rainfall - 994 mm
    27-06-2012 - 222 mm
    26-06-2012 - 772 mm

3. Past 72 hrs rainfall - 1455 mm
    27-06-2012 - 222 mm

    26-06-2012 - 772 mm

    25-06-2012 - 461 mm

4. Past 96 hrs rainfall - 1586 mm
    27-06-2012 - 222 mm

    26-06-2012 - 772 mm

    25-06-2012 - 461 mm

    24-06-2012 - 137 mm

    

5. Past 120 hrs rainfall - 1737 mm
    27-06-2012 - 222 mm

    26-06-2012 - 772 mm

    25-06-2012 - 461 mm

    24-06-2012 - 137 mm

    23-06-2012 - 151 mm

    

 5. June Rainfall till 27-06-2012 - 3430 mm

 6. Yearly Rainfall till 27-06-2012 - 5684 mm

Considering all India, the top 24 hrs recorded in 2012 are as follows

--------------------------------------

1.Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 26.06.12 – 772 mm

2.Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 25.06.12 – 461 mm
3.Chebri, Tripura – 16.06.12 – 411 mm
4.Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 09.06.12 – 396 mm
5.Malvan, Maharashtra – 19.06.12 – 386 mm
6.Khowai, Tripura – 16.06.12 – 369 mm
7.Dapoli, Maharahtra – 18.06.12 – 337 mm
8.Kayamkulam, Kerala – 05.05.12 – 334 mm
9.Gossaigaon, Assam – 26.06.12 – 330 mm
10.Kokrajhar, Assam – 26.06.12 – 320 mm
11.Dhubri, Assam – 16.06.12 – 315 mm
12..Falakata, West Bengal – 17.06.12 – 312 mm

Cloud Photography India >> must see ... http://cloudphotographyindia.blogspot.in

6pm, Heavy rain seen over Orissa, Chatisgarh, S,S-W.Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/IMlo 

A GOOD wet phase of MJO starting from 1st week of July till End of July ... this is very good for Monsoon .. http://ow.ly/i/IMjI 

RT @1prad: @weatherofindia   Cherrapunji records extremely heavy rainfall........
46cm (460 mm)

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 4.25pm, Sunny day, Cloud formation in the AN. Showers in some areas (Richmond circle). a pic http://t.co/4D9zP2MN

Will the IMD monsoon forecast pip global models in hitting the bulls’ eye? Probably yes!

The IMD is reduced to a butt of jokes. Two years in a row, they failed to predict the monsoon.  During 2010-2011 monsoon season, they got the forecast wrong, failing to anticipate a looming La Nina. The next year, again they missed factoring in the re-emergence of a second year La Nina and ended up with mud on their faces.

Last week the IMD revised their May forecast last week.  While their forecast of a “normal” monsoon [(viz. 96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)] remains unchanged, rainfall shortfall is now forecasted at 4% of Long Period Average (LPA), instead of an estimated 1% earlier in May. This makes their latest forecast a downgrade of their first in May this year.

The probability for a below average monsoon [viz 90-96% of LPA] increases by a whopping 9% while those of a normal monsoon decreased 5% from their May forecast.  Since the IMD model possesses a statistical model error rate of + 5%, there is now theoretically, almost an equal probability for a below-average and a normal monsoon occurring this year. 

Can they put their infamous past behind and hit a bulls-eye this year? Most probably yes!

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/06/will-imd-monsoon-forecast-pip-global.html

Bay wing of Monsoon continue to be very strong and shows NO relent !

Present W.D over N.Kashmir is moving East and it'll persist for another 2/3 days.

The weak offshore trough along S-W coast persists.. it's expected to deepen from 29-Jun.

@shanbhagsheetal >> #Bangalore - Evening sharp showers are possible again from 27-Jun.. as the Arabian sea monsoon picks strength.

#Chennai - having a windy, High cloud cover day.. now having a breeze from S-E. Records 37.0°C at 2:10pm

East India will have less showers from tomorrow, till 30-Jun... But North of N-E states will have strong & widespread rain till 30-Jun

For next 24hrs, Heavy rain forecast for N,N-E Andhra, Orissa and S.Chatisgarh ... http://ow.ly/i/IKDt

RT @kaymenon: Not a trace of cloud over Trivandrum! No rain in last 24 hours! We are (back to) enjoying summer! Join us for sun n' sea :)

Arabian sea wing of Monsoon to get started again from tomorrow .. and it's expected to be at its best till 2-Jul.. http://ow.ly/i/IKEm 

Today, the circulation over Bihar has vanished, a weak circulation can be seen over North N-E states.. http://ow.ly/i/IKAb

The circulation over N-E states will persist till 27-Jun. More heavy rain for this zone till month end and beyond!

Next N.Bay circulation is expected to pop on 28-Jun.. and move W-N-W .. http://ow.ly/i/IKB6

Entire Maharastra coast, #Mumbai , KArnataka coast to get heavy rains in next 24hrs till 30-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/IKBL

RT @astromandaar: Here west suburb of #Mumbai Sun n Rain playing hide n seek (10:08am)

RT @shanbhagsheetal: #Bangalore -  Max temperature of 32 degree & humidity of 80%.Weather has become hot in the last 2 days.

1pm, Totally calm along Maharastra coast, some showers seen over Coastal Karnataka & Kerala, Rain over N-E states.. http://ow.ly/i/IKyj 

All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2012 to 24.06.2012

The dry phase of MJO is spoiling the HRF figures. It is surprise that after 24 days into June, only one station from Peninsular India managed to cross 1000 mm. Just compare with 2011 figures for similar period. SWM 2011 comparitive figures. Meanwhile, the North Eastern HRF stations continue to impress. They failed miserably in 2011, but 2012 till June is definitely theirs. The MJO wet phase begins at end of first week of July, hopefully the peninsular HRF stations rock to their potential.

Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 700 mm)

1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 1975
2. Kumargram (West Bengal) - 1135
3. Falakata (West Bengal) - 1110
4. Malvan (Maharashtra) - 1080
5. Chepan (West Bengal) - 1000
6. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 990 
7. Shirali (Karnataka) - 965 
8. Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 930
9. Gokarna (Karnataka) - 920
10. Kollur (Karnataka) - 920
11. Udupi (Karnataka) - 900
12. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 890
13. Pernem (Goa) - 885
14. Barobhisha (West Bengal) - 870
15. Panjim (Goa) - 865
16. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 820 
17. Karkala (Karnataka) - 810
18. Mayabunder (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 805
19. Dhubri (Assam) - 800
20. Hasimara (West Bengal) -795
21. Dabolim (Goa) - 795
22. Gazoldoba (West Bengal) - 790
23. Vadakara (Kerala) - 785
24. Vengurla (Maharashtra) - 785
25. Mapusa (Goa) - 775
26. Mormugao (Goa) - 770
27. Honavar (Karnataka) - 760
28. Buxaduar (West Bengal) - 750
29. Karwar (Karnataka) - 735
30. Gangtok (Sikkim) - 730
31. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 725
32. Dodamarg (Maharashtra) - 720
33. Panambur (Karnataka) - 710
34. Dapoli (Maharashtra) - 710
35. Quepem (Goa) - 700
    
36. Devgad (Maharashtra) - 700
37. Silchar (Assam) - 700
38. Nagarkata (West Bengal) - 700
39. Chinnakallar (Tamil Nadu) - 700
40. Siddapura (Karnataka) - 700
41. Diana (West Bengal) - 700 
42. Enamakkal (Kerala)  - 700

All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Long Island, Castle Rock and Hulikal would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 1000 mm (to be published on 1st July 2012). 

For more stats visit - http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com

Tamil Nadu SWM Toppers from 1.6.12 to 24.6.12

-------------------
Chinna Kallar (Coimbatore) - 700 mm
Sholayar (Coimbatore) - 510
Valparai (Coimbatore) - 470
Devala (Nilgris) - 450
Upper Bhavani (Nilgris) - 380

SWM Rainfall as on 24 June 2012

• Sikkim and Sub Himalayan west Bengal is EXCESS by 22% by receiving 463.1mm rainfall
• Arunachal Pradesh Normal by 2% by receiving 395.6mm rainfall
• Assam & Mehalaya received 377.0 mm rainfall
• Odissa is NORMAL by [-]5% by receiving 148.5mm rainfall
• Konkan & Goa is normal by [-]15% by receiving 413.0 mm rainfall
• Surprisingly VIDARBA is also Normal by say [-]1% by receiving 110.6mm rain
• whereas Coastal Karnataka is normal just by [-]13% with rainfall 560.9 mm
• Other remaining areas of INDIA are terribly in either deficient or scanty category

(Courtesy: IMD)

IOD and SWM

The Mascarene High is fizzling in strength. Now the apparent motion of the Sun will be towards south.  By July third the earth will be far away from the Sun.  There may be changes on the location of this HIGH and its strength.  JULY being the representative month of SWM one can positively hope better rainfall for India. .

Courtesy: Mauritius Meteorological Service.

Courtesy: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

When contacted one of the noted / popular (but amateur) weathermen here,he narrated the following.

1. The Nino 3.4 region that is the region between  Five degree South latitude to Five Degree North  Latitude and 170-120 Degree West which confines to mainly western Pacific Ocean is relatively warmer.
2. The SST South of  cape Comorin in Indian Ocean is very low. But this will improve later.

IMG00028-20120624-1137.jpg

Its finally raining in lonavala maharashtra as seen from my window sunday 24 th june 11.40 am
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone

RT @Kaymenon: @weatherofindia Pitter-patter #rain across Trivandrum in last 48hrs! Nothing to rave about, though :)

IMG00026-20120623-1855.jpg

Lonavala lake dried up view, lack of rain
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone

IMG00025-20120623-1510.jpg

Khandala hills spotted with clouds but dry as no rains on the ghats too
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone

IMG00021-20120623-1433.jpg

Monsoon bright skies western ghats overlooking matheran hills,near mumbai, where are the rains
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone

Chennai - 2:28pm very hot and humid. Now having good preliminary t.cell formations ..signs of early t.shower

After a long wait, monsoon is active over S.tip Tamilnadu (Kanyakumari district) for the past 2 days. and Today as well.

#Delhi - records 41.0°C at 1:30pm

Rainfall till 8:30am of 22-Jun .. Heavy rain over entire East Indian states ... http://ow.ly/d/G5L 

@vbsingh60 >> #Kanpur can expect the Monsoon around first week of July.. Monsoon may get pushed in from the next N.Bay circulation.

#chennai - HOT again! records 38.0°C at 1:10pm. Clear Sky is having a DEEP blue tint. Very less cloud formations seen so far.

#chennai - now 1:44pm, having good signs of Sea breeze. A low level breeze from S-E has set in already.

Rain for #Mumbai to start again from night of 25-Jun or from early morning of 26-Jun and continue till 29-Jun and beyond.

Fresh upper level circulation will pop over N-E.Bay on 28-Jun and will move towards Orissa coast.

Now, entire S-W coast is calm except for showers along S.Kerala coast.

RT @arunpillai666: Its a pleasant sunny day in #palakkad, #kerala.. no sign of monsoons or rain clouds... (10:49am)

Showers along entire S-W coast will be on lower side till evening of 25-Jun and increase thereafter .. http://ow.ly/i/Iyx4

Today, there's a weak UAC seen over Gujarat and W.Madhyapradesh.. it's expected to die in another 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/IyzF

Today, Another UAC seen over N-W.Arabian sea and another over N-Central. Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/i/IyzF

Pre-monsoon T.showers to start ALL along foot hills of Himalayas from 26-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/IyAB

 Due to the persisting circulation, HEAVY and widespread rain will continue over Entire E.India, Bangladesh and N-E.states till 26-Jun.

Today, the circulation is over Jharkand, Bihar and E.Uttarpradesh... http://ow.ly/i/Iyo9

Today's circulation will move North into Bihar and N.Bengal and then vanish around 25-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/Iyow

Next N.Bay circulation expected to pop on 28-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/IyoZ   

RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia  #Massoorie in last 1 hour?extremely very heavy rain wth hail!COLD! (4:56pm, 22-Jun)

On 22-Jun, highest maximum temperature of  45.3°C was recorded at Churu (Rajasthan)

Today also the vertical velocity is high along N.Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S.Karnataka and S.Andhra .. so showers after 4pm. http://ow.ly/i/InOs 

RT @shanpati: Bizarre weather in #Massoorie! From thick blanket of fog, its now partially sunny & thunder sounds rocking the valley (3:13pm)

#Chennai - today the winds from WEST is not as strong as yesterday at ALL heights. Sign of weak Monsoon current over peninsula.

#chennai - yesterday evening a strong shower pushed very near to S-W suburbs and then fizzled out .. http://ow.ly/i/Inbi 

A Fresh W.D will reach W,N-W.Kashmir on tomorrow and will slowly move East ... will persist till 27-Jun.

The UAC persists over N-Central Arabian sea, this'll not move anywhere but it'll vanish on 25-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/In8Z

 The off-shore trough along S-W peninsula coast is expected to deepen on 25-Jun..and this is good for next monsoon wave. http://ow.ly/i/In9X 

In 24hrs, Heavy & widespread showers for entire East India, coastal Karnataka and N.Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/In0t

Heavy monsoon showers will pickup along S-W peninsula coast from evening of 25-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/In1v

Rain for Maharastra coast, #Mumbai will start again from 26-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/In1v

 Showers along E.India will go down from 25-Jun, while Heavy & widespread rain will Continue over entire N-E states till June end.

Yesterday's N.Bay circulation has moved inland and it's over Jharkand and S.Bengal.. http://ow.ly/i/ImXy

The circulation is expected to move North into Bihar and die around 25-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/ImYv

Moisture push can be seen well into Gujarat and even reaching S.Rajasthan and W.Madhyapradesh.. T.showers possible till 25/26-Jun

N,N-E. Bay may pop another monsoon circulation around 28-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/ImZe  

Monsoon has further advanced into East India .. here's the latest Northern limit of Monsoon .. http://ow.ly/i/ImUW

Rainfall recorded till 8:30am of 21-Jun ... http://ow.ly/d/FZi  

#chennai - 12:30pm, having strong winds from West. Morning it was heavily cloudy after last evening's mild rain. Getting HOT now at 35.0°C

#Delhi - records 41.0°C at 12pm while #Bangalore records 28.0°C at 12:30pm !

On 21-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 45.9°C was recorded at Amritsar (Punjab)

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia; Monsoon skies from air...somewhere near Bangalore... a pic http://t.co/aiQivbG1

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 10.00am, Cloudy, cool n pleasant.. Y.day T.Clouds formation in the eve but no rain ..a pic http://t.co/ZwMJUNwQ

RT @altruist_s: Wow, awesome climate. I came home for this.... it's raining @ Trivandrum :-) :-) (11:42am)

RT @vipuljain: Surprisingly no rain. God's own country, kochi, Kerala. (@ Domestic Terminal) http://t.co/XjiTvCdu (9:46am)

RT @shanpati:  Live from #Massoorie.  Beautiful and absolutely amazing weather! Thick blanket of fog/clouds... Temp around 21 degree. 9:05am

But, the Break Monsoon" status quo continues in the Peninsula and Western India. It will be negligible rains in West MP, Gujarat, Interior Maharashtra and the NW states till Monday, 25th.
Strong Dusty Westerly winds would sweep Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of NW India Saturday thru Monday.
With the trough remaiming weak off the West coast, and the trough in the North in its Northern most position, this status quo for the region, and the west coast will continue to get meagre rainfall at least till Sunday/Monday, 24/25th.
We could see the off shore trough in the west strengthening from Tuesday. 26th, to some extent.

The Southern States of TN, interior Karnataka and complete AP, will see no meaningfull increase in rains till Tueday 25th (at least). Temperatures expected to rise to over 40c again from Sunday thru Monday in Coastal AP as the region gets strong West winds, blowing out in the Sea.

More on http://rajesh26.blogspot.com

6pm, Massive showers over most parts of East India... http://ow.ly/i/IfaB 


RT @vasuphani: @weatherofindia Yeah..It is #Pallavaram #Chennai.. The rain has stopped 

RT @premspk89: Superb #climate @ #Chennai  http://t.co/4r0zjart (6:58pm)

#chennai - heavy rains almost over W,S-W suburbs, 6:42pm

#chennai - 6:35pm, a strong shower is approaching city from West.. S-W suburbs are in firing line.

RT @vasuphani: @weatherofindia Raining in some parts of #Chennai whereas other parts are still in a dry condition.. (6pm)

#chennai - 4:30pm, Sea breeze can be seen upto a height og 0.6km Above sea level and Good cloud formations continue. No rain yet!

As monsoon is getting weak along Kerala & Karnataka coast .. #chennai may not get showers from tomorrow till 25/26-Jun

#Bangalore can expect localized sharp showers (or) T.showers after 4pm everyday from Today till June end.

Vertical velocity along N.Tamilnadu, S.Karnataka & S.Andhra is going to be on higher side till 23-Jun, showers expected. http://ow.ly/i/IdJZ

#chennai - 3:40pm, having good sea breeze upto 0.3km above sea level and preliminary T-cell formations seen now!

Arabian sea monsoon will pick-up again from 25/26-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/IdB2

#Mumbai to get Rain again from 25/26-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/IdC3

Today, N.Arabian sea is having a weak circulation at medium & upper levels... expected to move towards Maharastra coast after 25-Jun

RT @prajjwalitah: @shanbhagsheetal @weatherofindia its so sunny now at arekere (3:16pm)


RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia in #Delhi today! Temp is 38 degree but feels like 45 degree. Extremely hot and dry! (3:22pm)

RT @shanbhagsheetal: @weatherofindia #Bangalore #weather outside my apartment in #BannerghattaRoad http://t.co/i0PGGM9O (3:06pm)

RT @shanbhagsheetal: @weatherofindia #Bangalore has breezy weather, generally cloudy sky with max temp. 29 C at 2:30pm...Pleasant weather!

1:30pm, Heavy rain started again over Bengal, Jharkand, Odisha and S.Bihar as the circulation moves inland.. http://ow.ly/i/Idn0


RT @sanjeevvyas: Clear sky no signs of rain in Mumbai. http://t.co/ypOdxBgD (2:36pm) 

#chennai - 2:30pm, having signs of early Sea breeze.. expected to set in before 3pm.

Today, the N.Bay circulation has strengthened and moving inland thru S.Bengal and N-E.Odisha .. http://ow.ly/i/Ide0 


The N.Bay circulation is expected to be Fully inland by 22-Jun and will stay over Bihar, E.Uttarpradesh till 25/26-Jun. http://ow.ly/i/Idj8 


Circulation will push Monsoon upto E.Uttarpradesh by 23-Jun and Very heavy widespread showers possible over entire East India till 26-Jun


Very heavy & widespread rain for entire E.India from today ...  http://ow.ly/i/Idkw till 26-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/IdkZ 

RT @kaymenon: @weatherofindia #Rain eludes Trivandrum yet for another day! Sunny, dry like summer! Hope the night sees some rain.(20-Jun)


RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 10.50am, Sunny, and windy, with passing clouds. 


On 20-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 45.1°C was recorded at Amritsar (Punjab) 


The off shore trough at mean sea level from south Konkan coast  to Kerala coasts persists.


#chennai - records 38.0°C at 1:10pm with scattered clouds & strong winds from S-W continue.

Critique: ICRIER-Gene Campaign Policy Paper : Climate Agriculture & Food Security

CRIER, an independent economic policy think tank founded in 1981 with our Prime Minister, ManMohan Singh as one of its co-founders. Last month, ICRER published a document under their policy series entitled “Impact of Climate Agriculture & Food Security”.

Read the full study here

ICRIER invited reactions from the public for this research paper authored by Anna Ranuzzi and S Richa, researchers with NGO, Gene Campaign.

On one hand, our post critiques the ICRIER-GC paper and on the other hand we offer an alternative theory to climate change. If the axiom of any paper can be demolished using scientific evidence, the whole edifice of the paper crumbles down. This would make the solutions recommended by the ICRIER-GC paper practically meaningless. That in short would be the primary objective of this critique, structured into 5 sections as follows: 

1. Continued re-positioning signals a total retreat of AGW Theory

2. Given the performance record of AGW computer modelling, why should their warnings be taken seriously?

3. How has climate changed in the past and what can we learn from them in terms of its impact on agriculture?

4. What is the basis for predicting future climate?

5. What is in store for us the next 25-30 years in terms of climate change? Which strategic direction should agriculture adapt? 

Any reactions to this critique are welcome and we would be pleased to publish any rebuttals in our blog.

Read more:   http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/06/critique-icrier-gc-policy-paper-on.html

#chennai - Sharp shower originated near Thiruvallur at around 5:45pm and travelled S-E and now 7:12pm its over Sea.

RT @premspk89: http://t.co/j9IRd3Z0.     #rain @ #Chennai 

@dr_nawin @leprincz >> "not raining this part of Chennai"  These sharp shower system usually will be very small and travel from West to East

RT @chitrachaudhuri: RT @hemalmajithia: I wish it would rain, the humidity is killing. #badweather in #Mumbai (3:49pm)

RT @dsanjeevkumar: Crazy Rain. Heavy Winds. Traffic Jams all over the place. @ Chennai. (6:38pm)

RT @karthikdot: It's raining in #Chennai. Chaos on OMR! (6:37pm)

RT @fabwrite: It's raining in Teynampet! @chennaiweather @weatherofindia (6:32pm)

RT @nandhitharavi: Soooper mazhai @ chennai :-):-):-) semma... http://t.co/uSHI6iH7 (6:29pm)

RT @stylish_vignesh: Raining in chennai.... Cool... Loving climate ...:) <3 rain now :_;) #chennai #Tamilnadu http://t.co/Opv2PM92

#chennai - 6:20pm, a sharp shower is sweeping into city from West. 

Arabian sea wing of Monsoon is expected to peak again along S-W coast, #Mumbai and Gujarat from 26-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/I3D5 


#chennai - 4:40pm, having good strong sea breeze from EAST for the past 1 hr. Breeze extends upto a height of 0.6km above sea level.

#chennai - Wind changing direction now 3:50pm, a strong Sea breeze possible from East after 4pm.

2:30pm, Heavy rain has broken out over Bengal, Odisha (Orissa), Jharkand, Bihar and even into E.Uttarpradesh.. http://ow.ly/i/I3n7 

#Delhi - records 42.0°C at 1pm

#chennai - at 12:40pm records 36.0°C with Strong winds from WEST continues.

On 19-Jun, highest maximum temperature  of  44.6°C  was  recorded at  Sriganganagar (Rajasthan)


RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 11.45am, Sunny, humid & hot.. No rain for the past 3 days.. Wonders where is the monsoon ??? 


10:30am, ALL calm along S-W coast.. except for some heavy rain over Kerala, While N.Bay circulation is moving inland.. http://ow.ly/i/I2ol 


Yesterday, monsoon has progress even more into E.India .. http://ow.ly/i/I2p8 


RT @arunpillai666: Its cloudy and overcast in Kalladikode #Palakkad,#kerala.. surely looks to rain hard in afternoon.. (11:02am)


RT @mumbairealtime: Govt to send rain alert SMS http://t.co/iY6beJmq #mumbainews 


Yesterday's N.Bay low circulation is moving inland into S.Bengal and S.Bangladesh .. http://ow.ly/i/I2qB 


N.Bay circulation is expected to push upto E.Uttarpradesh and be live till 23-Jun.. this'll further push Monsoon .. http://ow.ly/i/I2rs 

Top one day rainfall observed in 2012

(min 300 mm)

1. Cherrapunji, Meghlaya - 09.06.12 - 396 mm
2. Malvan, Maharashtra - 19.06.12 - 386 mm
3. Khowai, Tripura - 16.06.12 - 369 mm
4. Dapoli, Maharahtra - 18.06.12 - 337 mm
5. Dhubri, Assam - 16.06.12 - 315 mm
6. Falakata, West Bengal - 17.06.12 - 312 mm

#chennai - sharp showers again now 8:14pm over Polichalur, S-S-W suburb of city

Chennai - strong drizzle now 7pm over south suburb Polichalur

Chennai - suburbs getting ready to host a t.shower 6:53pm

RT @imarsh7: Continuous rain Day-3 and supercool weather #calicut #kerala (5:09pm)

#chennai - 4:45pm, signs of Sea breeze from E-N-E 

Pressure & Height equivalents

Pa --> Pascal (unit)

1 hPa = 100 Pa 

925hpa  approx. 900m Above Sea Level
850hpa  approx. 1500m Above Sea Level
700hpa  approx. 3000m Above Sea Level
500hpa  approx. 5500m Above Sea Level
300hpa  approx. 10km Above Sea Level
200hpa  approx. 12km Above Sea Level

‘Talim’ forces monsoon into pause !

Tropical depression ‘Talim’ in South China Sea has intensified into a tropical storm (deep depression) this morning and seems to have a cast a spell on the Indian monsoon.

Rainfall amounts have dipped to single digits once again along the west coast, as is clear from the figures put out by India Meteorological Department.

NIL ADVANCE

And the northern limit of the monsoon has failed to advance beyond the alignment that precipitated the onset two days ago.

This alignment linked Veraval, Navsari, Akola, Brahmapuri, Kanker, Keonjhargarh, Midnapore, Burdwan, Malda and Baghdogra with Gangtok.

Latest forecasts indicate that ‘Talim’ might just graze the southeastern coast of China and enter into northwest Pacific on the trail of typhoon ‘Guchol.’

Meanwhile, ‘Guchol’ has already weakened into a nominal typhoon (cyclone) ahead of hitting central Japan later today.

‘Talim’ might go to retain its tropical storm status until the weekend without intensifying, leaving the door open for a resident circulation in the Bay of Bengal to hold on.

‘LOW’ OUTLOOK

IMD expects this circulation to deepen as a low-pressure area over the next two days, and fuel monsoon’s journey into east India and the farming heartland.

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts sees the possibility of monsoon flows over the Arabian Sea resuming by the weekend.

The IMD assessed conditions as favourable for advance of monsoon into Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and entire Maharashtra, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim and some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar during next three days.

Taken from http://www.thehindubusinessline.com