8:30pm, Convective clouds can be seen nearing S. Kerala coast .. Minicoy is already having showers .. http://ow.ly/i/FdWU

NOGAPS suggest that Monsoon current will reach Kerala coast on 1-Jun, afternoon .. http://ow.ly/i/FbGB

In pictures: Heat wave grips India ... http://ow.ly/bgBZh

Heat waves break all previous records in India, Delhi records 45 deg C... http://ow.ly/bgBP6

In south India on 30-May, Khammam recorded the highest maximum temperature of 47 deg C

As of today's analysis, Perfect monsoon set and heavy rain for Kerala will start after 4-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/Fapr

W-Central Arabian sea system is disrupting the Monsoon current moving towards Kerala coast. GFS suggests that it'll strengthen & move N-N-E

Circulation over W-central Arabian sea persists and shows NO sign of strengthening ... http://ow.ly/i/Fan9

Just 1 day left for Monsoon onset over Kerala ! Will it reach before tomorrow evening ?? COLA suggests that it'll as a weak current !

Monsoon deadlock across Sri Lanka sea continues .. http://ow.ly/bgnfb

@fabwrite >> chennai - NO rain possible today, but going to be a Cloudy, WARM and Windy day.. (wind will be from WEST). http://ow.ly/i/FajC

SUPER heat on 30-May, Bramhapuri ­47.6, Dholpur­ 47.5, Ganganagar ­47.4,
Churu ­47.2, Amritsar, Nowgong and Chandrapur­ 47.0 deg C

RT @sathymj: I Hav lived in Khasab, Mussandam, Oman, 2 Am, 43 C, 80~90% humidity.3 sides hills, 4th side sea.8km inward from sea, 5km wide.

RT @rajugana: Baroda 11.00am, Sunny, strong winds from SW, for the first time patches of passing clouds .. a pic http://t.co/4eZIjzDJ

chennai - COOL at 12:10pm.. 36.0°C.. Heavy high cloud cover continues with good Breeze from West.

High day temperatures of Wednesday, 30th May:

In Pakistan, Sibi touched 49.0c, Jacobabad touch 48.5c, While Multan sees 48.0c. Sukkur soared to 47c. 
Islamabad saw an unusual high of 43c.

Wednesday,30th, in India, it was 47c at not only the usual  places in Vid. like Brahmapuri reached 47.6c Chandrapur saw 47c and Wardha at 46.9c , Allahbad at 46..8c, Nagpur at 46.6c, Agra at 46.5c and c, but the 47c has crept into Punjab with Amritsar touching 47.0c and Hissar at 46.4c today.

The Rajasthan Desert is in the 45/46c range with Bikaner and Kota at 45.8c and Jaisalmer seeing 45.4c,along with Delhi ( S'Jung) also at 45.0c on Wednesday.
Nagpur's minimum bottomed at only 33.6c today.


Monsoon may initially avoid Tamil Nadu for a week, and move along west coast...more on Vagaries.

chennai - 9:10pm, still very HOT 36.0°C... with NO wind !!

Strong winds from W,N-W will continue over N. Tamilnadu, Entire Andhra, E.Maharastra and chennai till 2-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/F4dx

Today, a circulation is seen over Chatisgarh, Orissa and N,N-E Andhra .. and another over E.Uttarpradesh.. http://ow.ly/i/F4b3

NOGAPS model still does not support Arabian sea low. but COLA, IMD model suggests that the Arabian sea low will form & move towards Gujarat.

Goa will have Monsoon on 6-Jun !

Latest NOGAPS model says, that a Monsoon will set in over Kerala on afternoon of 1-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/F3Ly

A weak W.D has reached W. Kashmir.. and it'll last for another 2 days.

As expected, a circulation has popped over W-central Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/F3Ag

Update on heat wave, bay and arabian system publishing tonite at 10 pm IST on vagaries.

Temperature over S,S-E peninsula (including chennai) will reduce by 2/3 deg C after 3-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/F3yY

Today, the N.Bay circulation persists .. and it'll vanish in another 24 hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/F3vq

Another WoW ... Nagpur records 41.0°C at 8:10pm .. a SUPER hot evening !!

WoW chennai - a HOT evening .. 37.0°C at 8:10pm

weatherofindia: Chennai - records another above 40 deg C at 1:10pm

Monsoon Rains for s-coastal Karnataka are expected to reach by 5-Jun.

NOGAPS still predicts that monsoon current will reach Kerala by 1-Jun and sees NO circulation over W-central Arabian sea http://ow.ly/i/ESuF

NOGAPS model suggests that Monsoon showers will pick up strength only after 4-Jun over Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/ESs7

chennai - presently 5pm, the wind is from South and NO sea breeze yet!

chennai - records 39.0°C at 1:10pm .. bit cooler than yesterday !!

Stiff W,N-W winds from morning till 2pm will continue for another 3 days over Andhra, N.Tamilnadu, chennai , E.Maharastra.

Today as well a low level circulation persists over Chatisgarh, Orissa and E.Maharastra, and another over E.UP & Bihar. http://ow.ly/i/ER25

Upcoming W-central Arabian sea LOW >> "few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation" .. http://ow.ly/bcY79

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Migratory storks’ early arrival raises monsoon hopes
http://ow.ly/bcWIk

A couple of International Forecasting Models estimate a low pressure to form in the Arabian Sea, around 10N and 60E by the 1st of June. There are few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation in the region around that time frame.


With 2 diverse opinions by several International Models, it becomes confusing for the average reader to actually judge or estimate the fact, especially at a critical time when the SWM is advancing along the West Coast of India.


Vagaries' View: 
Citing the "patch" of higher SST in the Central regions of the Arabian Sea (around 55-60E), it is possible that a low pressure system can form in the region by the 1st/2nd June. 
But, as it travels North, it can encounter a slightly colder sea, thus limiting its growth. The low, initially could be at 1000 mb, can deepen to 996 mb by the 4th of June, before it starts weakening again from the 5th.

RT @goodallrebecca: It's so unbelievably hot, stepping out of the hotel today was like stepping into an oven!! Amritsar Punjab (12:20pm)

@shanthikod >> No Early monsoon for N.Kerala, It's expected to reach on 1/2-Jun.. but before that heavy moisture presence is Normal

RT @shanthikod: Daily little shower taking place here in north kerala coastal región with excessive himidity. does it suggests early montón?

In next 24hrs, isolated Heavy T.showers possible for N-central,central Tamilnadu and over N.Kerala W.Ghats.. http://ow.ly/i/EQLG

Bangalore - records a mild 27.0°C at 11:30am.. WoW

RT @kaustavsongman: When India is sweating it out,people in Bangalore seem to have turned their ACs outside...tremendous weather (11:43am)

@ajy_s >> Neyveli (Tamilnadu) will have around 40 deg C !

COLA predicts a weak monsoon will set in over Kerala coast on 1-Jun and expected to pick up after 4-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/EQKo

If the Arabian sea circulation pops up on 30-May or 1-Jun then only a weak monsoon current will reach Kerala coast on 1-Jun.

COLA models still suggest a strong circulation over W-central Arabian sea on 1-June and will move N-N-E .. http://ow.ly/i/EQJE

Till 8:30am today, chennai 's high temp. was 42.9 deg C and Low temp. was 30.3 deg C

On 28-May, highest maximum temperature of 46.5°C has been recorded at Chandrapur, Nagpur and Wardha (Andhra Pradesh)

Here's the latest cloud formations seen over the circulation over N.Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/EQIW

N.Bay has popped a fresh Circulation ... http://ow.ly/i/EQIl >> this will pull the Monsoon well upto North Bay.

Chennai - records 32 deg C at 12:40am .#wow

Chennai - records 32 deg C at 12:40am .#wow

NOGAPS models suggest that Monsoon will reach Kerala on 1-Jun and Rain will increase only after 3-Jun. http://ow.ly/i/EKMc

@shanthikod >> Konkan region can expect monsoon after 5-Jun.

RT @saboovikas: @weatherofindia Barbil a small town in Orissa is 47 Deg. today. Scorching Heat Claims 40+ lives alrdy in 5 days in Orissa

COLA models suggest that very less showers forecast for Kerala on 1,2,3-Jun.. OR the onset itself will be delayed.. http://ow.ly/i/EJRO

Latest COLA models suggest a strong circulation over S-W-Central Arabian sea on 1-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/EJR9

Kerala may not have the FULL impact of the 1st monsoon showers due to the expected circulation over S-W-central Arabian sea.

chennai airport records another 42 deg C... yesterday it was 42.8 C

Latest COLA model suggests that Monsoon will set over Kerala on 1-Jun ... intially it'll be weak !

Nagpur airport records 47.0°C at 12:40pm !!

@nithyanexo >> chennai - Possibility of afternoon T.showers will increase only after 3-Jun.

@nithyanexo >> chennai - No rain forecast till 2-Jun, Upper level moisture presence expected to increase after 2-Jun.

chennai - at 12:10pm temp. was 39.0°C .. another 41 deg C on cards. And having breeze from W-S-W .. http://ow.ly/i/EILJ

On 27-May, highest   maximum   temperature   of   47.0°C   was   recorded   at
Bramhapuri(Maharashtra)

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia; Last week (17th May) before landing chennai sky turned cloudy, a pic http://t.co/Wn1y76bI

Dadu in Pakistan @ 49c on Sunday, 27th May. One or Two places in the Region Expected to Touch 50c on Monday or Tuesday.

Karachi to Heat upto 39c and Sukkur may touch 45c by next 2 days.

chennai - have stiff breeze from W-N-W and N-W ... this will not allow the Rain bringing Sea breeze to set in.!

Other HOT cities at 12:10pm are, Nagpur = 46.0°C, Lucknow = 42.0°C, Delhi = 40.0°C

chennai - at 12:10pm, temp was 39.0°C and feels like 42.7°C

Monsoon Watch - 7 ... http://ow.ly/baV5n

Today, Vorticity is high over N.N-E (includes chennai) and Central Tamilnadu ... T.showers possible after 2pm.. http://ow.ly/i/EDve

Monsoon Watch - 7 by "vagaries of the weather"

SWM has further moved into Southern Sri Lanka. Maldives and Northern Andaman Sea.
Galle in Sri Lanka recieved 63mms of rain and Ratnapura got 30 mms on Saturday, 26th, while Colombo measured 15 mms.

Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay and Arabian Sea. Winds over 30-35 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast, and 40 knts winds are seen in the Bay.
Winds off the Sri Lanka coast have picked up considerably.

Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature not falling sufficiently yet along the Somali coast. It is presently around 24c. Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.


But the current fall is sufficient to help form Monsoon clouds around the Maldives. Cloud formation near Sri Lanka is gathering, and in next 24 hrs, wind speed along the Sri Lanka coast is estimated at 35 mph (in gusts). 
A slight fall is seen in the Bay water's SST.


The ITCZ is slowly moving up, but is still around the Equator regions, and in the 5N region in the Bay sector.


SWM should set in over Sri Lanka within next 24 hrs, that is by the 28th May. 


The Seasonal Low seems to have strengthened. We see today's pressure at 998 mb. Getting gradually ready enough to create a gradiant to pull up SW winds into the mainland. The day temperatures on the Sub-Continent Northern plains are on the higher side since Wednesday, with the average the day's highs are around 42/43c. Across in Pakistan' Sindh region, the core area for the formation of the low, the highest was 46c on Saturday. M-5 effect was expected bring about a slight fall in the day readings(reported in Vagaries yesterday).


M-5 is seen moving away from India. WDs should slow down now, as the jet streams at 200 hpa are re-grouping fast into position. 

The Jet Stream Westerlies are almost upto the 15N line, and the "High" formation is taking shape East of Bangladesh. Expected movement of this "High" should be inland towards MP for perfect position.

The Bay sector SWM has been stagnant, and not picking up as expected from a "setting in" Monsoon. Its lack of systems could be attributed to M-4/5. Strong westerly currents prevent the formation of lows to move into the bay and towards the Indian mainland. They divert the forming currents.
As SW winds should pick up speed in the next 2 days, SWM "in situ", could advance further into the Bay. Better before another WD reaches the region to spoil the  "party".

Conclusion: SWM advancing into Sri Lanka by 28th (late by 3 days). 
Advance into Kerala around Vagaries' expected date, 3rd/4th June. But, further advance would need monitoring. 
Possibly into Coastal Karnataka and Southern TN regions by the 7th of June. 
South Konkan and Goa around 8th June, and Mumbai by 13th/14th June.


Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/

Monsoon in Srilanka .. Galle in Sri Lanka recieved 63mms of rain and Ratnapura got 30 mms Colombo measured 15 mms on 26-May

Isolated T.showers expected over W.ghats of Kerala, N.central Tamilnadu, N,S,S-W Karnataka in next 24 hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/EDtc

Strong Winds from W,N-W will continue over E.Maharastra, N.Tamilnadu, chennai , and entire Andhra for another 3 days. http://ow.ly/i/EDsz

A perfect monsoon onset over Kerala may get disturbed by the expected formation of Circulation over W-Central Arabian sea !

After 1-Jun, the temp. over S,S-E Peninsula (including chennai , Bangalore) will go down by 2 deg C.

Here's the model map showing a circulation over W-central Arabian sea on 1-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/EDrv

Latest COLA model expects a circulation to pop over W-central Arabian sea on 1-Jun, by that time a weak Monsoon current will reach Kerala !

On 26-May, highest maximum temperature of 47.2°C was recorded at Bramhapuri (Andhra Pradesh)

SWM has further moved into Southern Sri Lanka. Maldives and Northern Andaman Sea.
Galle in Sri Lanka recieved 63mms of rain and Ratnapura got 30 mms on Saturday, 26th, while Colombo measured 15 mms.

Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay and Arabian Sea. Winds over 30-35 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast, and 40 knts winds are seen in the Bay.
Winds off the Sri Lanka coast have picked up considerably.

A local heat vortex developing may bring about a thunders shower in and around Chennai on Sunday.
NW Sub-Continent day temperatures will further fall by around 2c next 2 days. However, the hot days in AP and coastal TN will see lower day temperatures from Monday, to the extent of 2.3c.

For Updates, keep checking on Indianweatherman and Monsoon Advance Map on "Current Weather Page"in Vagaries.

RT @fabwrite: Another cloudy day in chennai with not a drop of rain!!! >> And Temperature touched a max. of 38 deg C .. @chennaiweather

Remnant of present W.D will be over Kashmir for another 12 hrs and NO more W.D till 1-Jun!

5pm, Monsoon showers seen over Camorin Sea (area south of Kanyakumari) ... and heavy showers seen all over Andamans.. http://ow.ly/i/EyV3

Isolated Heavy T.showers possible for N,N-central,N-coastal Tamilnadu in next 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/EyTZ

Monsoon progress map as of 26-May.. http://ow.ly/i/EyQb

COLA models suggest that Monsoon moisture & air current will reach S.Kerala on 2-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/EyPq

Monsoon will reach Kerala on 2/3-Jun-2012

Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of Maldive and Comorin area and some more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal

Chennai - having a medium high cloud cover from 10am till now 2:50pm. Sprinkling of rain in some zones as well!

Gwalior @ 34.5c.......Minimum Temperature today Morning !

Dengue death toll goes up to 32 in Nellai; one dies in Tuticorin (S.Tamilnadu) .. http://ow.ly/b9jO7 disaster

NO relent in HEAT for S,S-central and S-E India till 1-Jun.. Monsoon over Kerala will reduce the temp after 3-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/Epjz

@vasuphani >> chennai at 8pm will have moderate humidity, HOT around 30 to 33 deg C, mild DRY breeze from West and NO sea breeze. IPL

RT @iaravindh: @weatherofindia raining in electronic city, bangalore (5:03pm)

IMD :: Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into
some parts of Maldive and Comorin area. http://ow.ly/d/DBo

Monsoon current / Somali jet is picking up strength and good Cross equatorial winds can be seen over S,S-W Arabian sea.. http://ow.ly/i/Eobi

Chennai records 31.7c as the Minimum..some sort of a minimum record probably. 

#chennai - With Westerly strong winds upto 1.5km height , there is very little chance for Sea breeze to set in!

Strong Westerly or N-W winds will continue for next 2/3 days for entire Andhra, E,central.Maharastra, #chennai, N,S.TN.  http://ow.ly/i/End1 

IMD models suggest a 2/3-Jun Monsoon arrival , while COLA models suggest a 1/2-Jun Monsoon arrival

Very less T.showers possible for W.Ghat Kerala, S,S-W Karnataka and Tamilnadu as we move into last week of waiting before Monsoon for Kerala

The fresh W.D will be active over Kashmir, Himachal and N.Punjab till 27/28-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Enar 

#chennai - Due to this high winds from W-N-W, T.showers in afternoon may not form & sustain, unless a very strong Sea breeze sets after 2pm.

Moisture along S,central Kerala coast will be on higher side from Today till the Onset of Monsoon.. http://ow.ly/i/En8F

#chennai - at 12:40pm.. temp. was 39.0°C... winds around is giving a mild relief !

As expected #chennai is having stiff winds from W,W-N-W .. Winds are prevailing upto a height of 1.5km above Sea level. http://ow.ly/i/En30 

12pm, a fresh W.D is making its way into S-W,W Kashmir.. http://ow.ly/i/EmWm

12pm, South west monsoon is making progress S.Bay almost now have covered entire Andamans.. http://ow.ly/i/EmWm

On 24-May, highest max. temp. of 46.9 deg C was recorded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh)

Heat Wave Intensifies in Pakistan:

The maximum Day temperature in Pakistan rose on Thursday to 48.5c at Dadu. followed closely by Larkana at 48c and Padidan measuring 47.5c. Sibbi was at a high of 46c. Sukkur saw a high of 45.5c
The nights are very moderate with Sibbi at 22c at Mirpur Khas dipping to 19.5c.

In India, Adilabad and Rentachintala(AP) soared to 47c, with a low at 33c at Adilabad ! On Thursday, Chandrapur reached 46.8c and Brahmapuri 46.5c. Nagpur touched 46.2c in the day and was 31.8c at night (Thursday morning).

Heat wave expected to persist till Sunday in Coastal AP and Chennai. Chennai may reach 43c and pesisit till Sunday between 41c and 43c. Minimums will be around 30c.

Link: Vagaries

chennai temp. will come down below 40 deg C only after 29-May.

Monsoon may reach Kerala coast on 2/3-June !

From tomorrow early morning showers possible for S.Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/EcNm

For another 24hrs, T.showers possible over N,N-central and central Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/EcN7

Today the weak circulation is persisting over Bihar, E.UP, E.MP and Jharkand.

Bay wing of Monsoon will proceed North and strengthen in another 2 days.. it'll cover entire Andamans around 28-May.. http://ow.ly/i/EcL6

Today, S-W monsoon current is strong over S,S-W,S-E Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/EcKr

chennai airport at 1:10pm has recorded a temp. of 41.0°C.. having breeze from W-S-W

SWM Crosses Andamans and Moves into Thailand. Ubon measures 62 mms and Phuket clocks winds at 57 knots.
See Vagaries for details.

8am, Heavy monsoon showers over S.Andaman Islands.. and showers seen over S.Srilanka .. http://ow.ly/i/EbPB

chennai airport yesterday(23-May) recorded a max temp. of 42.3

South West monsoon is over S.Andaman Islands ... http://ow.ly/i/EbII

South West monsoon is over S.Andaman Islands ... http://ow.ly/i/EbII

chennai - city may have 1 or 2 afternoon Thunder storm after 23-May..and before 31-May.

chennai - airport reported 41.8 C on yesterday and Today again crossed 41 deg C... this is expected to continue till 29-May.. WoW

Most models suggest that Somali jet will attain strength and reach 10N and 63E over S.Arabian sea on 29-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DTIy

No sign of below 40 deg C for N,N-W, central, E-central, S-central and S-E India till 29-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DTGM

Where is Palk Strait ?? education .. http://ping.fm/YjoC9

S.Kerala and S.tip Tamilnadu to have early morning monsoon style showers from 23 or 24-May.!

Isolated T.showers to continue over Kerala, N,central,S-central Tamilnadu for another 48 hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/DTEC

The remnant of present W.D will last for another 12hrs... and next W.D expected to reach on 25/26-May

Somali jet is picking up, but models suggest that it'll attain FULL strength along Somali seas after 24-May.

From 24-May, strong winds from S-W will be gushing thru Palk Strait !

Today's E.Madhyapradesh circulation will move N-E and will be over Bihar in next 2 days.. http://ow.ly/i/DTCH

A circulation is persisting over E.Madhyapradesh, Chatisgarh .. and it's trough extends upto S-central Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/DTCb

Nagpur airport reports 47.0°C at 2:40pm

Monsoon winds slowly making it's way into S,S-E Bay.. Will reach S.Andaman islands on 23/24-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DTzx

RT @rshivaag: Heavy thunderstorm and lights nearby tuticorin. -- No rain in Tirunelveli

T.cells seen over S-W,S,S-E of Tirunelveli (Tamilnadu) at 4pm .. http://ow.ly/b2wdc

chennai - Temperature is going down fast as a good sea breeze has set in now 3:30pm

At 2:30pm, India Heat Wave -- Jaipur = 40.0°C, Hyderabad = 41.0°C, Delhi, Lucknow, Ahmedabad = 42.0°C, Varanasi = 44.0°C and Nagpur = 46.0°C

chennai - airport at 12:10pm recorded 39.0°C

Latest models suggest, NO relenting in Severe heat wave across most of India till 28-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DJNE

Strong, Dry winds from N-W expected for N,central Karnataka, Entire Andhra, central,E.Maharastra, chennai after 24-May. http://ow.ly/i/DJM4

Today, a circulation can be seen over Chatisgarh, S-E Madhyapradesh.. and it's trough extends upto S. Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/DJIc

S-W Monsoon will reach S.Srilanka on 24-May !

S-W Monsoon current will be over S,S-E Bay and reach S.Andaman islands on 23/24-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DJHr

Isolated T.showers for W.Ghats kerala to continue till 27-May and beyond.!

After 24-May, early morning Monsoon style showers to start for S.Kerala and S.tip Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/DJGK

Isolated T.showers over W.ghats Kerala, Central Tamilnadu, S,S-W Karnataka to continue till 23-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DJGg

Present W.D over Kashmir & Himachal will last another 48hrs.. and next W.D will reach W.Kashmir on 26-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DJFM

Moisture presence along entire Kerala coast to become high after 24-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DJDw

The present Anti-cyclone over Central Arabian sea is expected to vanish in another 3 days giving way to Somali jet.. http://ow.ly/i/DJCY

RT @indianewsbot: Sunny day in Delhi: http://t.co/GCRN6GVF india

chennai - airport recorded 40.7 deg C on 20-May... and another above 40 C today !

SWM has feebly moved into the Southern Bay Region. 


SWM will start covering the complete Bay Islands from the 23rd, and subsequently, riding on a system, reach the NE states by the 1st of June. 
SWM could be expected over the Maldives by the 23rd of May.(Normal date 20th). Over Sri Lanka around the 27th of May.


I would estimate the SWM to advance into Kerala around the dates initially estimated by Vagaries : June 3rd/4th could be the date for Kerala, but remain weakish till the middle of June in coastal Karnataka and Kerala.


Initially, riding on a strongish MJO wave, the SWM could precipitate good rains in Kerala. The further current into Kerala would be "reluctant" to move ahead in a weak MJO, as International forecasters predict the MJO phase in our seas to become weak after the 10th of June. This weak phase could last till 20th of June say the forecasts. 
Nevertheless, the SWM could progessively advance into coastal Karnataka 48 hrs from 5th June. SWM could advance into interior Karnataka, Goa and S.Konkan by the 9th, and Mumbai by the 11th/13th. of June. 


For full report and map see Vagaries.

For next 24hrs, T.showers forecast for N,N-W India, Orissa, N-E Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/DxZq

Today , T.showers possible for Kerala W.Ghats, N,N-W,central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/DxYj

Today, we have 2 circulations .. one over E.Bay along S.Myanmar and another over S-W Bay along Central Tamilnadu coast.. http://ow.ly/i/DxWf

RT @cannotableto: Welcome to Chennai. .. . Where hot air will blow at all times. >> chennai airport 41.0°C at 1:10pm

Chennai Delhi Nagpur Hyderabad Ahmedabad Varanasi .. Above 40 C day temp. till 26-May and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/DxQv

Latest models suggest "SEVERE" Heat wave to continue over MOST of India till 26-May and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/DxQv

chennai - at 12:10pm, temp was 40.0°C and feels like 47.2°C

On 18-May, highest maximum temperature of 46.9°C was recorded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh)

RT @malhotramona: @weatherofindia @BeingSalmanKhan sunset from film city mumbai this evening http://t.co/6FcWlwe2 (18-May)

RT @aknarendranath: Rain accompanied by thunder and lightning in parts of Palakkad district of Kerala right now. Welcome relief.

6:30pm, T.showers seen over S-W Bengal, Central Rajasthan, N,N-central Tamilnadu, S-W Kashmir .. http://ow.ly/i/Dpz5

RT @binchenglu: Beautiful Kerala Monsoon Rain http://t.co/aLsF393c

chennai - now 3:23pm having good Sea breeze from E-S-E... temp. at 3:10pm was 37.0°C

Temperature at 1:30pm, Lucknow = 41.0°C, Nagpur = 45.0°C, Ahmedabad,Hyderabad, Delhi = 40.0°C

chennai - temp. at 1:40pm was 42.0°C

Only isolated T.showers possible over W.Ghats Kerala from tomorrow till 24-May.

The present W.D will be over Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakand till 22/23-May.

Due to present W.D, showers possible for Kashmir, Himachal, W,N,central Rajasthan for next 48hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/DnFF

Today, Vertical velocity is very high over S-central Tamilnadu .. T.showers possible for S,S-central Tamilnadu today.. http://ow.ly/i/DnFd

On 17-May, highest maximum temperature  of  46.3°C  was recorded at  Allahabad  (Uttar
Pradesh)

chennai - another above 41 deg C for City & Airport .. at 12:40pm it was 41.0°C (feels like 45.2°C)

By 22/23-May, S-W Monsoon will reach S.Andhaman Islands .. Pick up strength after 25-May.. http://ow.ly/i/DnAo

As the Somali jet picks up strength around 21-May, the present Anti-cyclone over Central Arabian sea will vanish.. http://ow.ly/i/Dnzc

Today, S.Arabian sea along 5th parallel is having a weak circulation .. http://ow.ly/i/DnyU

Heavy cloud formation has started over S,S-W Arabian sea upto Maldives... http://ow.ly/i/Dnyk

Cross Equatorial winds & Somali Jet are getting ready to move into Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/DnxK

RT @aknarendranath: At 24°C, Mumbai sees coldest May night in six years http://t.co/391fs8XG via @DNA @weatherofindia

9pm, T.showers raging over central,N Tamilnadu, T.showers/drizzle possible for W.Rajasthan moving in from Pakistan.. http://ow.ly/i/DhHS

Severe HEAT wave to cover most of India upto S,S-E coast including chennai Delhi Kolkata ..till 24-May and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/DgPl

RT @jagzk: R.A.I.N chennai http://t.co/AcruGPz0

T.showers near chennai.. seen here in this satellite IR image.. a lonely Thunder cell.. http://ow.ly/i/DeZ3

RT @saisundharp: Chennai storm. One more snap http://t.co/uR4ak3nv

chennai - T.shower is moving south skirting along Western,S-W suburbs of city (3:49pm)... NO Rain for City !

RT @ranganaathan: @weatherofindia Chennai skyline http://t.co/rXZy4JDB (3:45pm)

RT @nilouferj: The rain has hit the outskirts of the city! Waiting for it to reach us! Finally a break from the scorching heat! chennai

RT @bharadc23: Dust storm in Chennai ? http://t.co/ceQMrrOu (3:41pm)

chennai - after 42 deg C HEAT.. now 3:39pm a Thunder Squall is nearing West,S-W,N-W suburbs of City

chennai - a good sea breeze now 3:03pm is fueling the Thunder shower over N-W of City

chennai - a T.shower is raging over N-W at around 45 km from City.. showers possible for N-W,W.. suburbs of city.

Chennai - at 2:10pm, records the hottest day of 2012 so far.. 42.0°C

chennai - T.shower seen over N-W at around 50km from city and North of Tiruvallur... T.cell formation possible over City as well in 1hr

chennai - WoW .. airport records 41.0°C at 1:40pm ... Hint of sea breeze now 2:06pm !

A Western Disturbance is over Kashmir & Himachal. Cloudy Day with Showers possible for Dharamsala .. IPL Chennai CSK

Some Heavy T.showers possible for Central Bangladesh and Central Bengal from Today till 20-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Deqf

Due to present W.D, some T.showers may pop into W,S-W, central Rajasthan on today and tomorrow.. Showers forecast for Kashmir & Himachal .

chennai - will experience DRY & HOT winds from W,N-W till 2pm, from Today till 24-May

Definition of the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset ... Research Paper .. PDF ... http://ow.ly/d/CVt

S-W Monsoon may reach S.Andaman Islands on 21-May .. http://ow.ly/i/Denq

After 19-May, T.showers from entire S-Peninsula may vanish ... Isolated T.showers possible over W.Ghats of Kerala. Good sign for Monsoon !

For next 24hrs, T.showers possible for S.Karnataka, N,N-W Tamilnadu, N,central Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/Delp

On 16-May, highest maximum temperature of 45.7°C was recorded at Ganganagar (Rajasthan)

At 12:40pm, Nagpur airport touches 45.0°C

chennai - again touches 40.0°C, (feels like 46.0°C) at 12:40pm and expected to reach 41/42 before 2pm.

Rainfall till 8:30am of 16-May-2012... http://ow.ly/i/D85m

Latest models suggest that S-W Monsoon will reach S.Andamans by 22/23-May and Somali Jet will pick-up strength.. http://ow.ly/i/D7IX

Today's Super HEAT over most of N,N-W,central, E-central,S-central,S-E India to continue till 23-May and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/D7GU

IMD : Forecast for the 2012 Southwest Monsoon Onset over Kerala ... http://ow.ly/d/CQz

chennai - at around 2pm Sea breeze has set in.. and this is reducing the temp. gradually.. at 4:40pm, it was 35 degC

Cross equatorial winds into S,S-E Bay slowly increases in Speed... and Rain over S.Andamans also increases.. http://ow.ly/i/D6lC

RT @rajugana: Baroda 2.40pm, Clear skies, hot and humid. 40C. News to rejoice is that the Great Indian Monsoon are just round the corner !

IMD report about "Thunder Squall" at Agartala on 30-Apr-2012.. http://ow.ly/d/CPp

Today as well, the vertical velocity is very high over S. Andhra ... Showers forecast for next 24hrs in this zone.. http://ow.ly/i/D5D5

Relentless above 40 deg C to continue for N-W,N, Central, E-central ,S-central and S-E coast India upto chennai, No end date in sight !!

Nagpur touches 44.0°C at 1:10pm

chennai - WoW .. at 1:10pm, temp reached 40.0°C .. DRY breeze from N-N-W

On 15-May, highest maximum temperature of 44.5°C recorded at Titlagarh(Orissa)

Monsoon to hit Kerala on June 1: Met office ... http://ow.ly/aWqpO

2:30pm, T.showers are popping out all along S-E coast from Orissa, N-E, S Andhra, N. Tamilnadu and upto S.Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/CWYN

This 200mb, High altitude Jet becoming Easterly is very important for onset of S-W Monsoon.

200mb, high altitude Jet stream is slowly becoming Easterly .. will become easterly upto 20th parallel on 20-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CWX4

Seasonal HEAT Low over N-W, N, E-central India will deepen to 998hpa and take full shape after 21-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CWTk

Cross equatorial winds into S,S-E Bay to become strong after 21-May... meaning S-W Monsoon for S.Andaman is near.. http://ow.ly/i/CWSe

On 17-May a circulation will pop over Bihar .. and it's trough will extend South along S-E coast upto N. Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/CWRD

The upcoming W.D will produce a circulation over N-central Pakistan on 16-May and it'll stay put till 20-May before crossing into India!

Scattered showers over North N-E states to continue till 21-May and beyond.

The upcoming W.D will be active over Kashmir and Himachal till 21-May!

Nagpur has reached 44.0°C at 2:40pm

A fresh W.D will reach W.Kashmir from tomorrow.. and get active from 17-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CWNr

Moisture presence over S.Kerala to continue even after 18-May... Isolated T.showers to continue.. http://ow.ly/i/CWEz

T.showers still expected over S,S-W Karnataka, N,central Kerala and N,N-W Tamilnadu till 17/18-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CWDV

At 1:30pm, Temps recorded are.. Nagpur = 43.0°C, Patna = 42.0°C, Varanasi = 42.0°C, Ahmedabad = 40.0°C, Lucknow = 40.0°C, Amristar = 39.0°C

chennai - Temp. at 1:40pm was 39.0°C.. feels like 43.6°C... No strong sea breeze yet!

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Drizzling in parts of Trichur in Kerala. (11:31am)

RT @arunajayshankar: It seems pretty cloudy today, a bit of rain too...gud morning people have a nyc day :) kochi kerala (9:01am)

COLA model suggests a T.shower possible for S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu including chennai on 15/16-May... .. http://ow.ly/i/CQ8k

Heavy T.showers to continue over S,S-W Karnataka, N.Kerala, N-W Tamilnadu till 17-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CQ8k

Super HEAT coming up for N,N-W,Central, S-central and upto S-E India .. including chennai from 16-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CP90

IMD :: Soon, get your weather updates on Twitter and Facebook ... http://ow.ly/aTeuZ

Today, Good cross equatorial winds can be seen reaching well into Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/COju

4pm, Heavy T.showers seen over S-central, central,N,N-W Tamilnadu, S,S-W Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/COiD

Bangalore - rains for the 3rd consecutive day !

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda..I could observe a nice artistic cloud formation on Sat eve..a pic http://t.co/bMhmHqxt

RT @alex_pandian: heavy rain starts - climate is back to original Bangalore weather @weatherofindia (3:39pm)

chennai - Cloud formations seen 2:02pm, No strong Sea breeze yet!

Already we have T.showers over S-coastal Tamilnadu .. and one popping over N.Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/CNr4

chennai - still have a chance for a T.shower before evening of 16-May.. !

Today as well, Moisture along Tamilnadu coast, Kerala and S,S-W Karnataka is high ..plus a circulation seen over S-W Karnataka.

RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.15am, Cool, pleasant and cloudy morning, Now, clear skies, hot and breezy. awaiting for the first T.Showers!!!!

In 24hrs, a weak circulation is possible over S,S-W Karnataka and N.Kerala... more HEAVY T.showers possible till 17-May http://ow.ly/i/CI8b

Vertical velocity is again high along S.Andhra and chennai coast.. T.shower possibility is HIGH for next 24hrs

Vertical velocity is very high over N,N-W Karnataka, Goa and coastal Karnataka .. HEAVY T.showers possible in 48hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/CI6C

Today as well, HEAVY moisture seen all over S,central Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/CI6a

RT @ilamparithim: @weatherofindia Bangalore http://t.co/jkYpsDpR (12-May-2012, 6:18pm)

RT @iAravindh: Raining in Bengaluru @weatherofindia 3:30pm

On 11-May, highest maximum temperature of 43.9 °C recorded at Bramhapuri (Maharashtra)

chennai - temp. at 12:40pm was 36.0°C, feels like 40.8°C and Wind direction now 1pm is from S-E (Sea)

E.Bay may see a strong circulation around 18/19-May

Rainfall to increase over S.Andamans from 18-May... due to strengthening of Equatorial winds into S.Bay... S-W monsoon is near for Islands!!

Extended forecasts till 28-May suggests, Excessive pre-monsoon T.showers for S,S-W Karnataka, N,central Kerala and N-W Tamilnadu (Nilgiris)

chennai - most models suggest T.showers for City on Today or before evening of Sunday.. http://ow.ly/i/CClC

Isolated T.showers for N-E. Andhra and Orissa to continue till 17-May, and scattered Showers for N-E states are also to continue.

Next W.D will reach N-W India, Kashmir on 17-May

Due to W.D, showers also possible for N.Rajasthan, N.MP, Delhi , Haryana, Punjab, Kashmir, himachal for next 3 days.. http://ow.ly/i/CCk8

During next 2 days, T.showers possible for N-E,S.Andhra, N,S-central Tamilnadu, chennai , N-E states .. http://ow.ly/i/CCk8

For next 24hrs, VERY heavy T.showers possible for Coastal, S,S-W Karnataka, N,central Kerala, central,E.Maharastra.. http://ow.ly/i/CCk8

Heavy moisture will linger over S,S-W Karnataka and entire Kerala till 18-May and beyond.. MORE afternoon T.showers coming up for this zone.

Today, Vertical velocity is high along S-W,coastal Karnataka, entire Kerala and over N, N-W India.. http://ow.ly/i/CCiQ

Today, another W.D induced circulation can be seen over Punjab, Haryana and adjoining Pakistan.... http://ow.ly/i/CCi7

Heavy moisture presence seen over S,S-W Karnataka, Entire Kerala and entire Tamilnadu .. HEAVY showers expected .. http://ow.ly/i/CCi7

Today, a circulation can be seen over Jharkand and E.Madhyapradesh.. it's trough extending upto S.Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/CCi7

RT @sathymj: The summer has begun in Bombay. Really cloudy & muggy. A rainshower will increase the heat quantitatively. Mira Rd.

RT @rajugana: Baroda 10.30am, Cool breeze in the morning, Clear sky, sunny and hot. Temp Forcast 39-25 range. T.Showers come here...

Bangalore to have temp. around 35 deg C and more T.showers ahead till 17-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CvaX

chennai - after some mildly hot days till Sunday, it'll again reach 39/40/41 after 14-May

T.showers over N,N-W and central India will dry up after 13-May

Present W.D will last over Kashmir till 13-May and next is expected to reach on 17-May... the frequency & number of W.D 's are high in 2012

Entire North N-E states are going to get scattered Heavy showers from today till 17-May and beyond.

Before Sunday evening chennai city still have a GOOD chance for a T.shower !

Cross EQ are expected to be strong around 18-May near S.Andaman islands .. may signal S-W monsoon over S.Andamans.. http://ow.ly/i/Cv4Y

Cross equatorial winds pushing into Bay are gathering pace again !

Severe heat to start over entire N,N-W and Central India from tomorrow

For next 24hrs, Showers along entire W.Ghats will continue with HEAVY rain for S,S-W Karnataka and Entire kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/CuZR

RT @mizonews: Dust storm, light rain in parts of Delhi http://t.co/hwqeTdQ7

RT @fuyohboy: Pune vs RCB Match delayed by rain IPL (8:03pm)

7pm, Heavy T.showers ALL along W.Ghats from N-W Maharastra to S.tip of Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/CuTL

RT @jayaprakashpv: Heavy rain with thunderstorm in kumaranellur, palakkad, kerala now... http://t.co/1ZRJP4cF (6:28pm)

RT @amrthraj Heavy rain and lighting with thunder weather trivandrum venjarammoodu: . http://t.co/wZFpAq7S (5:20pm)

RT @hj91: thundar is booming southern sky. pune rain fall will be there late.. (7:51pm)

International Climatic Models Turn Even More Pessimistic of a “Normal” Indian Monsoon

We are seeing possible early signals of an emerging El Niño. Large swathes of land within the country are already facing drought like conditions. Meanwhile in Peru, scientists are perplexed over the mystery death of over 3,000 dolphins. What causes marine mammals to die en masse? The US climatic agency, NOAA notes a number of possible causes, including infectious disease, parasite infestation, starvation (associated with El Niño events), pollution, injuries and algal blooms that release bio-toxins. The El Niño remains their primary suspect.

Asked whether he was worried about the El Niño playing spoil sport with the Monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General LS Rathore told the media that :

"Yes there are chances of El Nino phenomenon emerging in the Pacific which may not favour rains in the month of August-September. But overall monsoon is likely to be normal. El Niño is just one of the parameters being considered while forecasting".

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/05/international-climatic-models-turn-even.html

First 30c Minimums of 2012 Reported from Sub-Continent on 11th May ! 

The Places were all from Pakistan, Jacobabad, Sukkur and Bhawalnagar.

Late, to some extent, this year. Mentioned in MW-5 (Vagaries).

Today a circulation can be seen over Gulf Mannar which extends upto N.Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/CrCZ

Vertical velocity near chennai and S.Andhra coast is high.. this is good for T.showers.. chennai have above 70% of Rain today

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.50am, Clear sky, sunny, hot and humid, yestday 40C.. Will there be Cloud formation in the eve?

HEAT wave from 12/13-May .. over most of INDIA ... http://ow.ly/i/Clim

HEAT wave to start over N-W, central & E-central India from 12-May.. and will expand to S-central India from 16-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Cl5x

6:30pm,The stretch from Delhi, S.Haryana in NORTH of India to S-Central Tamilnadu in SOUTH of India is having T.showers http://ow.ly/i/CkX7

RT @arunraj_nayak: heavy rain here in Bangalore http://t.co/IrqgqX5Z (5:45pm)

RT @christinedelhi: Walking round Delhi roof terrace battling strong wind, waiting for rain. http://t.co/ANF4hozY (6:52pm)

RT @ambikasharma: Gale force winds in delhi I hope the rain gods favor the city today! (7:20pm)

RT @gurunath75: Heavy rain at the moment in jaipur. Let's hope it clears soon. Doesn't look good right now. (6:32pm)

RT @sarath235: At present its not raining in Jaipur !! So toss will take place in Time !! @ChennaiIPL (7:22pm)

'Monster sunspot' could bring solar flares and major disasters

A group of sunspots 11 times wider than the Earth turned to face our planet, raising the possibility of solar flares and auroras tonight. The sunspot cluster - shaped a little like the islands of Hawaii - is much larger than Earth. It measures 100,000 miles from end to end, while the diameter of the Earth is approximately 7,900 miles. The Sunspot Region 1476 became visible over the weekend and two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), where a portion of the sun's atmosphere breaks off, erupted on Tuesday. 

The CMEs blasts could arrive on Earth later today and cause moderate geomagnetic storms later and auroras in the higher latitudes, according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. 

The CMEs are travelling at 1.5 million miles per hour but, since they are only partially directed at Earth, they aren't expected to affect communications satellites or other equipment susceptible to space weather. (Special filters are needed for viewing the sun directly to protect the eye, notes Space.com.) 

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/05/monster-sunspot-could-bring-solar.html

Heavy T.showers for S.Karnataka, Kerala and N-W Tamilnadu to continue beyond 16-May.

Showers for N-E Andhra to continue till 15-May.

For next 48 hrs, Heavy T.showers expected for S.karnataka, W,N,N-W,central Tamilnadu, N,central Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/Ck14

RADAR shows super T.shower is now (4:30pm) crossing Kanchipuram town .. http://ow.ly/i/CjKX >> No chance of Rain for chennai

RT @yespushparaj: Monster rain in kanchipuram.......... http://t.co/Y3n4L9xN (4:20pm)

Cross equatorial winds are pushing again into S,S-E.Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/CjIT

4pm, Lots of T.showers seen over stretch from N.Rajasthan to S.central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/CjHX

Chennai - a super strong thunder shower is now 3:50pm sweeping Arakkonam zone.. west of city

On 9-May, highest maximum temperature of 44.2°C was recorded at Churu (Rajasthan) 

At 1pm, Nagpur = 43.0°C, Varanasi = 40.0°C, Tiruchi = 38.0°C

chennai - Airport is reporting 35.0°C at 1:40pm.. feels like 41.9°C

RT @rajugana: Baroda 8.50am; Clear sky, Sunny,and breezy morning. Ytday 39C, TClould in the eve, but no rain. a pic http://t.co/yBC5bmBo

Monsoon Watch alert ... http://ow.ly/aOI87 "heat waves are missing" !

Chennai: 
Thursday/Friday: very humid and partly cloudy. Thundery developments in evening with 20%* chance of rain. However, nights will be unbearable at 28/29c next few days. 
Saturday: 60%* chances of rain.

For All India Weather and other cities see vagaries

The circulation over E.MP will drop a trough extending to S.karnataka, S.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu and will last till 13-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Cagr

Today's circulation over E.Madhyapradesh, Bihar and Jharkand to continue for next 3 days!

Scattered showers over N-E states will pick up strength again from 11/12-May.

Some strong T.showers possible over N-E Orissa and central,S. Bengal from today till 11-May.

W.D induced T.showers will pop over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Kashmir, Himachal from today till 14-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Cafh

T.showers are going to be strong over S,S-W Karnataka, N,central Tamilnadu, S.Andhra.. from today till 14-May.. http://ow.ly/i/CaeM

For next 48 hrs, scattered T.showers possible for Central,E. Maharastra, N,N-E.Andhra, Entire Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/Caeg

A severe HOT conditions expected from 15-May for N,N-W and Central India .. http://ow.ly/i/C9Xv

Monsoon Watch-Seasonal Low parameter:


With the heat factor still lacking absolute "full strength", in the Northern regions, the Seasonal Low core in the Thar Desert is now somewhat "unsteady", with a core pressure at 1002 mb, and requires to spread more westwards, rather than east. This (pulling Eastwards) is happening due to M1. 


The heat waves are still missing, with the minimums still showing vast regions in the below normal range. By this time each year, vagaries normally charts the "above 30c" minimums. But this year as yet, forget 30s, we are still barely reaching 25s in the night, with the odd one out in the NW plummeting to below 20c.
And the days ? 45c is just about getting its foothold!


Other Parameters and complete article at Vagaries

Super heat conditions to start over N,N-W, central, E-central and S-central India from 11-May.!

Moisture will be back strongly along Kerala from 11-May .. http://ow.ly/i/C9Vg

Today we can see a circulation along S-Central-coastal Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/C9Qt

At 11:30am, temp. in Nagpur and Varanasi has crossed 40 deg C.

kolkata - temp. at 11:50am was 36.0°C and feels like a WoW 48.2°C

chennai - at 11:40am, temp. was bit less at 36.0°C and feels like 38.9°C

RT @paarth_: Getting drenched in the rain! In the caves of Wayanad, Kerala and having a good time with my friends... http://t.co/70QmG8j6

On 8-May, highest  maximum temperature of 43.8°C was recorded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh).

Cross equatorial winds into Bay will strengthen again from 11-May, this'll produce Monsoon like weather for S. tip of Tamilnadu, S.kerala !

8:30pm, Massive T.showers over Central,E Rajasthan, W.Maharastra, S.Karnataka, N-W,W,S-central Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/C4wq

RT @bheemaupadhyaya: @weatherofindia Its raining tweeps! (SW Bangalore @6.50pm)

RT @thisismmk: @weatherofindia Itz raining quite a bit in erode @4.40pm :-) http://t.co/upVmEwzi

chennai - now have sea breeze from E-S-E, temp. at 3:10pm was 36.0°C

Temp. highs at around 2:30pm are Patna = 40.0°C , Tiruchi = 40.0°C, Nagpur = 42.0°C, Varanasi = 42.0°C

chennai - from today till 10-May... there's a 30% chance of T.shower

Bangalore - some heavy T.showers for city from today till 13-May.. http://ow.ly/i/C1N2

2:30pm, already we have T.showers over S.karnataka and N.Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/C1Mk

Heavy and widespread T.showers forecast for S.karnataka, N,N-W Tamilnadu, and into N.Kerala from tomorrow.. http://ow.ly/i/C1LF

N,N-W, central and S-central India to receive scattered T.showers on today and till 11-May.. For N,N-W it'll continue beyond that!

Today there's another circulation seen over Bihar & Jharkand .. .. http://ow.ly/i/C1JK

Today a weak circulation can be seen over Indian ocean area just South of Kanyakumari .. http://ow.ly/i/C1JK

chennai - at 1:10pm, temp. was 37.0°C and feels like a WoW ... 47.7°C

RT @rajugana: Baroda 8.50am, Unlike yesterday, today the sky is clear, Sunny, hot and humid., appears heading for a Scroching day.

RT @sdm_more: Today at 8-9 pm some raining showers nd cyclonic wind at Dhule also cold weather at Nashik, Maharashtra Very nice weather

On 7-May, highest maximum temperature of 43.9°C was recorded at Churu (Rajasthan).

Strong trough is expected to form from Bihar to S.Karnataka on 9-May... moisture feed to come from W.D to S.peninsula. http://ow.ly/i/BVrj

S.Peninsula may have less HOT weather from 10-May.. most of the HOT conditions will be over N,N-W of India.. http://ow.ly/i/BURq

Read more about Somalia Low Level Jet ... http://ow.ly/aKhdO education

Latest low level wind analysis show that cross equatorial winds are reaching Somalia coast and Somalia Low Level Jet .. http://ow.ly/i/BUDr

6:30pm, Heavy T.showers seen over East,S-E Rajasthan, W,N-W Madhyapradesh and over S. Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/BUvs

@akmswaminathan >> S-W winds will pick up strength after 10-May over the Wind mill locations in Tamilnadu. Full strength towards end of May!

RT @rajugana: Baroda 6.30pm, Pleasant surprise, as sky remained cloudy till 11.00am, however, sky cleared without rain, hot n humid day.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia; Aftermath of Evening showers at Gods own Country..dark clouds & green everywhere. a pic http://t.co/O9BZ27nO

Nagpur at 2:40pm.. temp. was 43.0°C

Heavy rain forecast for S.Karnataka,N-W Tamilnadu and N.Kerala from 9-May to 13-May.. http://ow.ly/i/BT6x

More T.showers forecast for N,N-W,Central, S-central India from tomorrow .. http://ow.ly/i/BT5O

chennai - city had a mild temp. till 11:30am and after that it's Hot.. temp. at 3:10pm was 36.0°C, with light breeze from South

2:30pm, as expected.. T.showers are popping up over W.Madhyapradesh and Central,E.Rajasthan.. http://ow.ly/i/BT4k

RT @ranjithdunny: Beautiful climate in chennai, Perfect for a morning walk :) (7:43am)

chennai - this is the latest (7am) satellite shot of the Thunder storm over Bay near city's coast.. http://ow.ly/i/BRpl

RT @ssrivatsan: Dark clouds and heavy winds. Hope it rains. Chennai. http://t.co/rAzFQ4Qi (7:36am)

chennai - a huge T.shower is seen over Bay just 20km N-E of City.. and approaching !!.. http://ow.ly/i/BRnT

A Western disturbance, M-1, now covering Northern regions of India and Pakistan is expected to linger on till Friday. Northern Pakistan, and Northern Indian regions will continue to get pockets of Thundershowers spread out widely from North Pakistan thru Northern Indian states of Punjab,Haryana, Delhi, West U.P. and Northern M.P. Nepal too would recieve showers Tuesday thru Thursday.


Interestingly, an induced low, basically an off shoot of M-1, will form on Monday and bring rainfall in many regions of Rajasthan, MP, Interior Maharashtra from Tuesday thru Friday. 
This is a result of the Easterly 200 hpa jet streams stooping down far to the South.
if further interested, see map on Vagaries.

chennai - may record below 40 deg C temp from Monday till 10-May.. http://ow.ly/i/BNjh

Delhi - will get 1 or 2 Thunder showers from 8-May to 13-May... http://ow.ly/i/BNj0

Lots of T.showers expected to break open over delhi, N,N-W, Central India from Monday to 12-May, Will peak from 8-May.. http://ow.ly/i/BNiF

chennai - at 12:10pm, temp. was 36.0°C ... 3 deg C below than yesterday's temp at this time.

W.D to become active from today over Kashmir, Punjab and Himachal.. http://ow.ly/i/BNgJ

A Super HEAT wave to start over N,N-W, central, E-central, S-central India from 10-May... http://ow.ly/i/BNgc

Moisture has almost dried out over and along S.kerala coast .. it'll be back from 11-May... http://ow.ly/i/BNfS

Yesterday's E.Bay circulation has moved into S.Myanmar... http://ow.ly/i/BNf7

RT @rajkumar71: @weatherofindia Heavy downpour in Madurai at 4.00 pm, 5-May

Fresh W.D has almost entered into Kashmir.. this W.D will open up scattered T.showers over N-W,W,central India from Monday

Cross equatorial winds into S.Bay are expected to be weak from 7 to 10-May.. after that moisture will be back over S.Kerala and S.Srilanka

Moisture along S.Kerala coast will last for another 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/BIL1

5:30pm, Heavy T.showers seen over S.central Tamilnadu, N-E Andhra, Jharkand, W,S-W Madhyapradesh, S,S-E. Rajasthan .. http://ow.ly/i/BIJI

Today, E.Bay circulation is strong and very near to S.Myanmar coast .. Heavy rains witnessed .. http://ow.ly/i/BIJI

chennai - touched 40.0°C at 12:40pm, feels like 42.3°C

On 4-May, highest maximum temperature of 44.5°C was recoded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh)

10am, Good cloud formations seen along S.kerala with some rain around.. http://ow.ly/i/BHfE

Nagercoil - is experiencing a mild weather with winds and cloud formations from S-W.

Today, Cross equatorial winds are strong over area South of Kanyakumari.. that's why S.kerala is having a S-W monsoon style weather today.

Next W.D is expected to reach N-W India on Sunday, 6-May.. this'll open up isolated T.showers over W,central India from Monday

Continuous SUPER heat for N-W, N India to commence from 6-May and HOLD for another 20 days.. http://ow.ly/i/BzT5

T.showers over Orissa, Jharkand and S.Bengal till 7-May.. http://ow.ly/i/BzHh

T.showers expected to continue over E.Madhyapradesh, Jharkand, Chatisgarh, S.Bengal, Orissa and into N,N-E Andhra.. http://ow.ly/i/BzEB

The circulation is expected to drift S-W into N,N-E Andhra in another 24 hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/BzDR

A Low level circulation is present over Orissa, Chatisgarh, E.Maharastra, E.MP.. http://ow.ly/i/BzCD

Central Arabian sea will host a Anti-cyclone from 7-May.. and it'll slowly deepen and move towards S-W India coast.. http://ow.ly/i/BzAj

The cross equatorial winds pushing into S,S-E Bay will continue and likely to get strong after 9-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Bzxw

The moisture concentration along S.kerala coast will last for another 2 days and expected to be back again after 10-May

5pm, T.showers seen over S-W Kashmir, Himachal, E.rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkand, Coastal,N-E. Orissa, central,N-W Tamilnadu http://ow.ly/i/BzuL

Area over Bay just East of Port blair & very near to Myanmar coast is getting ready to host a strong circulation.. http://ow.ly/i/Bz6e

A lonely T.cell can be seen 60km South of chennai .. and RADAR shows that it's raining over S-S-E of Chengelpet. WoW

Polar Bear Extinction: Deconconstructing the Scientific Hoax;

In an age in which emotional narratives often trump facts, the polar bear quickly became the icon of the climate alarmist movement. The frame of a cuddly polar bear clinging on to a swiftly melting tiny ice floe tended to immediately rake up a flurry of emotions all sympathetic for a creature, apparently portrayed as helpless to starve off the danger of its imminent drowning.

Al Gore, former US Vice President, used the above frame in his controversial documentary “The Inconvenient Truth”. All these publicity spurred the frame going viral over the internet and succeeding in recruiting tens of thousands to the climate change cause. It however also spawned an ever increasing band of climate critics. Science, the renowned international scientific journal selected the frame in its editorial “Climate Change and the Integrity of Science” to counter this growing worldwide trend of “climate scepticism”:

"We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts."

But they didn’t factor into their calculations, an encounter with my pal, James Delingpole of The Telegraph, a leading newspaper in the UK. James’ brilliant investigative work exposed the frame as a photo-shopped graphic! Instead of helping to refute the allegation, this frame ended up confirming that the integrity of climate alarmist scientists was indeed suspect. Science consequently had to swallow its pride and render the following editorial correction:

"Due to an editorial error, the original image associated with this Letter was not a photograph but a collage.

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/05/polar-bear-extinction-deconconstructing.html

chennai - will have sea breeze from E-S-E after 2:30pm .. until then no respite !!

chennai - 12:40pm, temp was 39.0°C

RT @spocky_himanshu: Sexy morning in Bhopal. Dark Clouds. Cool breeze and a feeling that it will rain today. Maybe li'l but it'll.. 9:17am

Nagpur at 11:40am has touched 41.0°C

chennai - temp. at 11:40am was 38.0°C and feels like 43.4°C .. another 40 C on cards !

chennai - Day before Agni Natchatiram, city hits 40 on 3-May .. http://ow.ly/aH54X

On 3-May, highest maximum temperature of 44.2°C has been recorded at Chandrapur (Maharashtra)

Heavy S-W monsoon style wide spread showers continue over entire Andaman Islands and will continue for another 2 days !

Today, the cross equatorial winds is strong and reaching well into Bay.. meanwhile the winds are reaching Somalia.. http://ow.ly/i/Bplt

3:30pm, Showers seen over S.Kashmir, Himachal and upper reaches of Uttarakand.. this may be the last from this W.D.. http://ow.ly/i/Bpjv

@knowyourclimate >> and check for Lifted Index as well .. http://ow.ly/aFJe2

@knowyourclimate >> CAPE .. check this for more .. http://ow.ly/aFJ5E

3:30pm, T.cells have popped over N-E. Andhra, Coastal Orissa, S-W Bengal, Jharkand, S.Bihar, central Tamilnadu. http://ow.ly/i/BpfP

Next W.D will reach Kashmir by evening of Sunday !

CAPE factor is going to be high along S.Kerala for next 2 days.. this'll produce strong T.showers before 6-May.. http://ow.ly/i/Bpe4

Heavy scattered T.showers forecast for Bengal, Bangladesh, into Jharkand and N-E Orissa from today till 6-May.. http://ow.ly/i/BpcB

Moisture concentration is expected to be high along S.kerala for next 2 days.. Isolated T.showers expected till 5-May. http://ow.ly/i/Bpbn

Moisture still lingering over Tamilnadu, S.Karnataka and entire Kerala... this'll last another 24hrs.!

The circulation over Chatisgarh will stay for another 36 hrs !

RT @sakibikas: Weather in Kashmir still chilling even though temperature is soaring in the rest of India..

Today a strong circulation can be seen over Chatisgarh, Orissa and S.Jharkand .. T.showers likely in these zones.. http://ow.ly/i/Bpa9

chennai - today touched a max of 37.6°C (12:02pm)... it may reach 40 C before 6-May and then reduce for next 4 days.. http://ow.ly/i/Bp9H

Present W.D is over and next is expected to reach Kashmir by evening of Sunday, 6-May

T.showers over S.Bengal and Bangladesh to become stronger from tomorrow till 5-May.. And showers to drift W-S-W into Orissa by 5-May

T.showers over W,N-W,N. Tamilnadu will go down from 3-May... http://ow.ly/i/Bh8Z

Say Hello to the New Little Ice Age! ... http://ow.ly/aEo9Y

Monsoon Watch ... http://ow.ly/aEo5m

Scattered T.showers can be seen over N. Tamilnadu.. and one is visible over W-S-W of chennai at around 75km from city.. http://ow.ly/i/Bh2o

The cross equatorial winds can be seen prominent & pushing into S,S-E Bay... http://ow.ly/i/BgYl

A good seasonal LOW is expected to form and deepen over N,N-W India and into Pakistan only after 7-May.. http://ow.ly/i/BgV2

Monsoon Watch - 4

This article is reproduced from http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/


Forecasting Methods adopted for the Indian Monsoons:


Gowariker(1989) developed parametric and multiple power regression (MPR) models with 15 predictors for LRF of AISMR, which were later modified in 1991 to include 16 predictor parameters. The parametric model is qualitative and indicates the likelihood of the monsoon rainfall to be excess or deficient.


Thapliyal (1990) evaluated the relative performance of multiple regression, and Navone and Ceccatto (1994) have used 'feed-forward' neural network technique for the prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall with two predictors (500 hPa ridge location and Darwin SLP tendency from January to April). 


The results of a recent work by Krishna Kumar (1997) indicate that a single component accounts for about half of the total variance in the predictors


Most of the studies on LRF of Indian monsoon rainfall were based on empirical or statistical techniques till 2010. 
IITM, Pune has recently implemented the state-of-the-art coupled climate model, the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. These statistical techniques range from simple correlation analysis to advanced procedures.


I still have faith, and believe in the "Gowariker Method" with 16 parameters. The results of this old but proven method has been successful. For Vagaries' forecast and analysis made in the "Arrival and quantum Monsoon Watch" series, I combine a few of them alongwith Dynamical models for a personal analysis and estimate. 


15 initial parameters from the months March, April and May are used to analysis and forecast the simulation of Indian monsoon rainfall during June to October. These initial conditions were carefully selected by experts to span the evolution of both the atmosphere and ocean.


Calculating the amount of rainfall, region wise, is of utmost importance, as SWM contributesto almost 80% of the annual total rainfall over India.
The performance of Vagaries' Monsoon Watch Quantum analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June to SWM withdrawal.


The 500 hpa parameter is of importance in April. The mean latitudinal location of the 500 hPa ridge along 75°E in April over India, first identified by Banerjee (1978), is considered to be one of the most important predictors. The mid-tropospheric anticyclone over southern India migrates from 11.5°N in January to its northernmost position of 28.5°N during July. From October, the ridge starts shifting back southward. 
A more Northward location indicates better performance of the monsoon and vice versa. It also showed that the negative correlation of the March ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of the peninsular India, while the positive correlation of the April ridge was more dominant with the monsoon rainfall of Northern India.


ENSO factor in arriving at the rainfall amount is also of importance. The interface is the sea surface: that is where the transfers of water (evaporation/precipitation) and momentum occur. An accurate coupling of the fast atmosphere to the slow ocean is essential to simulate the ENSO, which in turn can simulate the interannual variability of Indian monsoon. Unfortunately, getting an accurate, or near to accurate forecast of the ENSO for the next 2 months is difficult, with no guarantee of accuracy or performance surety.


We see neutral conditions now. But, there is a possibility of a mild El-Nino event occuring as early as June/July. Now, this would result in "severe" break Monsoon condition in July. That is the last thing we want. But I would not endorse the event as yet. I would give it a 50-50 chance.


Limited pulses from the Eastern Pacific area, that is S.China sea, would mean lesser depressions and systems originating from the Bay. 
'In Situ" systems and systems from the Far east would contribute to the rainfall to the East Coast thru Central India and into Gujarat and even into Sindh (Pakistan).
El-Nino, even a mild one, would sort of restrict these pulses, and in fact encourage WDs into coming down South, more South than normal. 
But, for this, we would have to hope and pray for the Neutral ENSO conditions (presently on) to prevail and hang on till September. Again, a 50-50 chance for Neutral conditions.


Regarding the IOD parameter, recent forecasts from a few  coupled models  suggest  the possibility of development of a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole event after July 2012.


1. Seasonal Low: Indicator: -ve


The heat is about to pick up in the Rajasthan/Sindh regions from the 3rd/4th of May, so good chance for the seasonal low to form and establish itself, at least by the 10th.Today the pressure at MSL is 1000 mb, with the core at 1000 mb. 
The sub Continent hot spots have just about touched the 44c mark (it is already Late. Refer MW-1) and should head for the 50c mark by around 16th May.

2. ITCZ: Indicator: Normal
As it is by the 10th, that we should have the ITCZ nearing the Equator. Only then would the Bay branch of the SWM could commence in the Southern Bay by the 15th of May.


3. Jet Streams: Indicator:-ve


These are streaming away in a Westerly direction above the 25N line. They are just about getting Easterly around 5N. Needs a rapid change now.


4. Cross Equatorial Winds: Indicator: Normal in Bay Branch. -ve in Arabian Sea Branch


Well established in the Bay region. SW winds, with sufficient speed hitting the S.Myanmar coasts, covering the Bay Islands with 20-30 knts, and could hearald the arrival of the SWM on time there.


Arabian Sea winds are now picking up, and rubbing the Somali coast at sufficient speed in getting the "Somali Current" established. The SST off the Somali Coast is 22c, While the required SST in First week June is 17/18c. (Required to form masses of Monsoon clouds in the warm central Arabian Sea).

Very Briefly, explaining the Factors considered for Seasonal Forecast:


If we take into account, that the ENSO will be Neutral, but "leaning" towards a weakish El-Nino phase by, say, end August, then:


a) There will be a drop in the systems originating from the Bay. If at all there will be weak depressions just about reaching Central India and fizzling out. 
Hence could result in rainfall deficit for the NW regions, including lower Sindh in Pakistan. Central India and adjoining areas will be well covered.


b) In such a scenario, even the 200 hps jet streams would bend slightly Southwards, and the "low" at that level will be dislodged. could bring in the odd WD even in July. Could bring some heavy rainfall to Upper Pakistan regions. Hence, rainfall could be normal/excess in rest Northern Pakistan and Kashmir. Though technically they will be Monsoon rains.


c) Due to systems reluctant to track southwards, we may see lesser rains in the Southern Peninsula regions. Even the support to the west coast (South of Mumbai)may be lesser than normal. Hence, rain shadow regions in TN and interior Karnataka may be slightly deficient. Lesser gradient along the West coast will show lower rainfall in Kerala, specially in June.


d) Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji seems the likely candidate for the poll).


This is a very early estimates based absolutely on the situation as it shows and stands today.