Saturday, May 19, 2012

SWM has feebly moved into the Southern Bay Region. 

SWM will start covering the complete Bay Islands from the 23rd, and subsequently, riding on a system, reach the NE states by the 1st of June. 
SWM could be expected over the Maldives by the 23rd of May.(Normal date 20th). Over Sri Lanka around the 27th of May.

I would estimate the SWM to advance into Kerala around the dates initially estimated by Vagaries : June 3rd/4th could be the date for Kerala, but remain weakish till the middle of June in coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Initially, riding on a strongish MJO wave, the SWM could precipitate good rains in Kerala. The further current into Kerala would be "reluctant" to move ahead in a weak MJO, as International forecasters predict the MJO phase in our seas to become weak after the 10th of June. This weak phase could last till 20th of June say the forecasts. 
Nevertheless, the SWM could progessively advance into coastal Karnataka 48 hrs from 5th June. SWM could advance into interior Karnataka, Goa and S.Konkan by the 9th, and Mumbai by the 11th/13th. of June. 

For full report and map see Vagaries.

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