A couple of International Forecasting Models estimate a low pressure to form in the Arabian Sea, around 10N and 60E by the 1st of June. There are few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation in the region around that time frame.
With 2 diverse opinions by several International Models, it becomes confusing for the average reader to actually judge or estimate the fact, especially at a critical time when the SWM is advancing along the West Coast of India.
Vagaries' View:
Citing the "patch" of higher SST in the Central regions of the Arabian Sea (around 55-60E), it is possible that a low pressure system can form in the region by the 1st/2nd June.
But, as it travels North, it can encounter a slightly colder sea, thus limiting its growth. The low, initially could be at 1000 mb, can deepen to 996 mb by the 4th of June, before it starts weakening again from the 5th.
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