The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has picked early signs of a rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave evolving in the Indian Ocean.
MJO waves periodically travel in the upper atmosphere from west to east in alternating wet and dry phases and have corresponding impact on weather over ground falling under its footprint.
The BoM also said that the monsoon trough has re-established itself across India and Southeast Asia, with renewed convection in the northern Indian Ocean.
TROUGH ESTABLISHES
Most climate models suggest that an MJO event will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean over the coming week or two but with little or no eastward movement expected.
So there would be an increased chance of enhanced, dry south-easterly winds returning to northern Australia and hence increasing fire danger, the BoM said.
Back home, the overall seasonal rain deficit as on Thursday remained at one per cent with major gains having been made in northwest and east India.
The northwest saw the rain surplus growing to eight per cent, while in the east the deficit has been drastically reduced to as much.
MAJOR GAINS
Central India was exactly neutral while the south featured a one per cent deficit, which, in itself, is an improvement over the past week.
Going forward, India Meteorological Department (IMD) saw fresh rains materialising over the west coast, central India and adjoining peninsular India apparently being fuelled by the MJO wave.
Helpful upper air cyclonic circulations were spotted over northwest Bay of Bengal and west Uttar Pradesh on Thursday afternoon.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over central and adjoining peninsular India on Friday that would scale up thereafter.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
It would be isolated heavy over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Friday
Please include the state of Goa in your weather forecasts.
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