Latest on Arabian sea LOW / Depression "95A"

Position :: 13.8 N and 59.1 E


IMD warning
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Time of issue: 1015 hours IST

          Depression over westcentral and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea.

The depression over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea further moved westward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30^th October 2011 near latitude 13.0⁰N and longitude 60.0⁰E, about 1600 km west of Mangalore (Karnataka), 650 km east of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 750 km southeast of Salalah (Oman) The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs.

As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

JTWC
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 64.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF CAPE
GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN,
SCATTERED CONVECTION, MOSTLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED, YET
WELL DEFINED AND EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON DEPRESSION. A 291318Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH SHALLOW AND
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A DIVERGENT
REGION, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE(05 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH AN ANTICYCLONE TO 
THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Latest Satellite IR shot 12:30pm
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COLA model suggests that "95A" will continue to travel in W-N-W direction into mouth of Gulf Aden on 1-Nov-2011

Another circulation will pop over S-E corner Arabian sea on 2-Nov... ALL these arabian sea systems are good N-E monsoon, for pulling in Bay moisture towards Tamilnadu coast.