Monday, October 24, 2011

Normal to excess N-E monsoon forecast

Global models tend to give a normal to excess rain outlook for the season ahead as the northeast monsoon prepares to unfold over southern peninsular India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) projections continue to suggest that the monsoon in reverse would set in over the southeast peninsular coast by Monday.
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees enhanced probabilities for normal rains during the season.
But the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) has forecast normal to excess rain for the region during November and December.
Piloting rains have fallen over the region during the past couple of days as winds have settled into being easterlies across the Bay of Bengal.
Meanwhile, northeast monsoon has already set in over upstream over South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.
Wind speeds are ratcheted up to 8 to 16 knots (15 to 30 km/h) in the Andaman Sea, an update by the Thailand Meteorological Department said on Sunday.
Among the main weather producing features over the landmass on Sunday were a western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan.
An upper air cyclonic circulation lay anchored over Assam while an upper air cyclonic circulation hung over Lakshadweep. A trough originating from here extended up to south Konkan.
An IMD outlook until Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers would break out at many places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Rains are likely also at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and at one or two places over the remaining parts of peninsular India.
Rain or snow has been forecast at many places over Jammu and Kashmir on Monday and decrease thereafter.
A similar forecast is in place for one or two places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, too.
Taken from  >>

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