Thursday, June 02, 2011

Offshore trough-cyclonic whirl combo may catapult monsoon


The offshore trough from north Karnataka coast to Kerala coast persists today (Thursday) as does the upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea off Kerala coast.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said the northern limit of monsoon has not moved beyond the Kozhikode-Kodaikanal alignment where it got docked into by the initial monsoon pulse. But the offshore trough-upper air cyclonic circulation is a combination that weather-watchers are putting their money on in terms of its potential to commandeer monsoon flows further north along the west coast.
An IMD outlook until Saturday continued to assess conditions as favourable for further advance over more parts of Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, central and south Bay of Bengal and some parts of Karnataka.
Satellite pictures early this morning showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds standing tall over Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, east central and south Arabian Sea, central and south Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
An IMD warning said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Heavy rainfall would also occur over Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Sunday.
A short-term forecast spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers unfolding over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It would be fairly widespread over interior Karnataka and scattered over the rest of peninsular India.
In an apparent signal of monsoon propagating to the north, the IMD said that scattered rain or thundershowers may break out over Konkan and Goa and isolated over the rest of Maharashtra until Friday and increase thereafter.
An extended outlook until Tuesday said that rain or thundershowers would become widespread along the west coast.
Meanwhile in the north, an incoming western disturbance is expected to dictate weather over northwest India until tomorrow (Friday). An induced upper air cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan lying over Punjab and adjoining Haryana would add to the potency of the weather system.
Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds rising over parts of southeast Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand.
An IMD warning said isolated thunder squalls would screech their way across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
A short-term outlook said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would break out over the western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh and scattered over rest northwest India until tomorrow and isolated thereafter.
A fall in maximum temperatures by 3 to 4 deg Celsius is likely over northwest India during this period. Mainly dry weather has been forecast in an extended outlook valid until Tuesday. Meanwhile, the highest maximum temperature of 44.0 deg Celsius was recorded at Wardha and Chandrapur in Maharashtra yesterday (Wednesday).
Towards the east, isolated thunder squalls have been warned of over Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa until Saturday as the pre-monsoon prospered in the region.
A short-term outlook said fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim while being scattered over rest east India and isolated over central India.
An extended outlook valid until Tuesday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and adjoining east India. 

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