Monday, January 31, 2011
IMD-GFS, now predicts showers for C,N. Tamilnadu coast on 4,5-Feb due to the upcoming UAC over Bay... http://ow.ly/i/7HiI
In 24hrs S-central Bay near to N. Tamilnadu coast will host a UAC and will move west before dying over Sea near coast.. http://ow.ly/i/7Hix
A strong western disturbance will start for W. Kashmir from evening of 2-Feb ... will continue beyond 7-Feb.. http://ow.ly/i/7Hip
Due to the present Easterlies and UAC over S-W Bay... S-E Tamilnadu coast is Cloudy and having some drizzles ... .. http://ow.ly/i/7Hi5
11am, Heavy rains for Srilanka while S-W and S Bay continues to have UAC and more on way till 5-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/7Hi5
Saturday, January 29, 2011
1:30pm, W. Kashmir is under the influence of Western disturbance.. will continue for another 48 hrs. Rain/snow expected. http://ow.ly/i/7DY2
Still IMD-GFS predicts showers for Entire tamilnadu coast from 1-Feb to 4-Feb... due to easterlies ... http://ow.ly/i/7DXK
UAC seen over S-W Bay along S-E Srilanka coast ... and easterlies getting stronger ... http://ow.ly/i/7DXk
Western disturbance with better attributes could sail into the northwest around February 6 ... http://ow.ly/3Mqmx
Repeat westerly systems to bring rains for N. India
Arrival of a fresh western disturbance across the border is switch on weather yet again over northwest India, with rain showers being forecast over the weekend and into the next.
The western disturbance has already started affecting the hilly regions in the region, while the plains are expected to come under weather from Saturday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin said.
Satellite pictures indicated the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir; and towards the south, over South Andaman Sea, South Bay of Bengal and South Arabian Sea.
IMD forecast
The IMD forecast said scattered rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir.
It will be isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand, but increase thereafter.
Scattered rain or thundershowers have also been forecast for Punjab and isolated rain or thundershowers over north Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting has said that a follow-up western disturbance with better attributes could sail into the northwest around February 6.
This system would facilitate not just a second round of welcome rains for standing Rabi crops in the Northwest but also send in some piloting showers for east India and parts of the northeast.
This is even as international models see the possibility of isolated to scattered heavy showers along the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Kerala early next week.
The outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) values are forecast to be growingly negative (indicating presence of clouds) northward from equatorial Indian Ocean. Southwest Bay of Bengal, Southeast Arabian Sea and the waters surrounding Sri Lanka could slip under cloud cover in this manner and the resulting rains penetrate extreme peninsular India.
This is a likely extension of the active Northeast monsoon conditions prevailing over the Gulf of Thailand upstream of Bay of Bengal.
A few models suggested that the rains may propel north along the Tamil Nadu coast as also into the interior besides adjoining Kerala. But the IMD has suggested the possibility of only isolated rains in the region.
The latest IMD agri-met advisory bulletin said that during the last week, minimum temperatures have ranged between 5 to 10 deg Celsius over most parts of northwest India; 11 to 15 deg Celsius over central, east and northeastern States; and above 16 deg Celsius over the rest of the country.
They were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of east India and extreme south peninsula.
In Faridkot division of Punjab, low temperature conditions have brought cold injury to standing Rabi crops. Farmers have been advised to apply frequent and light irrigation to protect them.
In Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur divisions, light irrigation may be applied to vegetables. Farmers in these states are advised to monitor the crops and arrange for smoke around the field to manage low temperature effect on crops.
Weather condition is favourable for sowing of summer groundnut in North Saurashtra region of Gujarat and potato in mid hills and lower regions in Himachal Pradesh.
Ice Covers Lake Baikal & Baikal Ice Marathon
Ice covered Lake Baikal in late January 2011, as snow coated nearby peaks. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’sAqua satellite captured this natural-color image on January 24, 2011.
Ice on Lake Baikal is not at all unusual in January. The ice that forms on the lake is generally quite strong, even strong enough to support the weight of vehicles driving over the surface. Runners also rely on the ice to support their weight in the Lake Baikal International Ice Marathon.
Although the ice on Lake Baikal is often thick in January, the lake rarely freezes early in the fall. The lake’s considerable volume enables it to retain heat accumulated during the summer months throughout the autumn season. In extremely cold conditions, however, the lake may freeze as early as December.
Lake Baikal (also known as Ozero Baykal or Ozero Bajkal), is the world’s oldest and deepest freshwater lake. At roughly 395 miles (635 kilometers) long, with an average width of about 30 miles (50 kilometers), it is also the world’s largest freshwater lake by volume, holding as much fresh water as North America’s Great Lakes combined. Surrounded by mountains, the lake occupies a rift where parts of the Earth’s crust as wrenching apart. Geologists value the lake for what it can reveal about the development of ocean basins.
Baikal Ice Marathon
More on Baikal Ice Marathan visit ... http://www.absolute-siberia.com/en/pages/ice_marathon.html
RT @weathernetwork: Mount Bromo in Indonesia's Java spews ash, disrupting international flights to Bali. http://ping.fm/hKSsw
A piece of history :: monsoon had failed in 1965 and 1966 but revived well in 1967 ... http://ow.ly/3LPFH
3:30pm, Rain/snow over Kashmir, Cloudy over S. Tamilnadu and Heavy rain over S-W Srilanka... http://ow.ly/i/7C0x
Friday, January 28, 2011
Now, COLA-GFS also predicts rain for Tamilnadu coast from 1-Feb to 3-Feb ... But IMD's cyclone on 4-Feb is not in pic.. http://ow.ly/i/7BOH
Today, A western disturbance has started affecting W. Kashmir ... and strong W.D possible from evening of 2-Feb.. http://ow.ly/i/7BOr
IMD-GFS still persists with the Feb 1st week Cyclone for S. Bay .. starts on 31-Jan .. http://ow.ly/i/7BNM .... http://ow.ly/i/7BNW
A weak low level circulation can be seen over S-W Bay along S-E Srilanka ... on 29-Jan, S Bay will host a strong UAC.. http://ow.ly/i/7BN6
Due to the easterlies, Entire Tamilnadu coast will have windy and cloudy conditions with a chance of drizzle / shower.. http://ow.ly/i/7BMZ
Easterlies has now reached S-E, Central Tamilnadu coast ... cloudy conditions prevail .. chance of medium sharp showers. http://ow.ly/i/7BMM
The combination of present strong easterlies and with upcoming UAC ... showers may reach up to N. Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/7ANW
11:30pm, Entire S, S-W and S-E Bay are very active ... more showers for E, S-E Srilanka today as well ... http://ow.ly/i/7ANx
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Record Rainfall in Kimberley, Australia
January might still have four days to go, but a remote Kimberley settlement has recorded the highest monthly rainfall figure ever in WA. The Bureau of Meteorology's gauge at Kuri Bay has so far recorded 1339.5mm - at least - this month, beating a 94-year-old tally.
It might have been even higher, but the rainfall gauge overflowed on January 11, before the Bureau's observer was able to check the gauge. The observer recorded 388.6mm for that day.
The previous best was at another Kimberley site, Roebuck Plains, in January 1917, when 132.7mm fell. Kuri Bay's previous best was 1144.9mm in January 1974. This month's total is more than three times the 407.4mm January average for Kuri Bay. 
WA regional climate services manager Glenn Cook said the record-breaking total was due to the monsoon season in a La Nina weather pattern year, and warmer than average waters off the north coast. However, Kuri Bay, and WA, have some way to go to match the Australian record, a whopping 5387mm, or more than 5 metres, at Bellenden Ker, Queensland, in January 1979.
Bellenden Ker records an annual average rainfall of 8,312 mm (327.2 in), making it the wettest meteorological station in Australia. It also holds the record for the highest rainfall in a calendar year of 12,461 mm (490.6 in) in 2000 and the highest rainfall in Australia for a calendar month of 5,387 mm (212.1 in) in January 1979.In 2006, Bellenden Ker received rainfall, 9,800 mm (390 in) than any other part of Australia. This was primarily due to two severe tropical cyclones passing close to the mountain.
It might have been even higher, but the rainfall gauge overflowed on January 11, before the Bureau's observer was able to check the gauge. The observer recorded 388.6mm for that day.
The previous best was at another Kimberley site, Roebuck Plains, in January 1917, when 132.7mm fell. Kuri Bay's previous best was 1144.9mm in January 1974. This month's total is more than three times the 407.4mm January average for Kuri Bay. 
WA regional climate services manager Glenn Cook said the record-breaking total was due to the monsoon season in a La Nina weather pattern year, and warmer than average waters off the north coast. However, Kuri Bay, and WA, have some way to go to match the Australian record, a whopping 5387mm, or more than 5 metres, at Bellenden Ker, Queensland, in January 1979.
Bellenden Ker records an annual average rainfall of 8,312 mm (327.2 in), making it the wettest meteorological station in Australia. It also holds the record for the highest rainfall in a calendar year of 12,461 mm (490.6 in) in 2000 and the highest rainfall in Australia for a calendar month of 5,387 mm (212.1 in) in January 1979.In 2006, Bellenden Ker received rainfall, 9,800 mm (390 in) than any other part of Australia. This was primarily due to two severe tropical cyclones passing close to the mountain.
Jeddah receives 111 mm in 3 hours and exceeds Nov 2009 flood accumulation
JEDDAH: In just three hours Wednesday morning Jeddah was inundated with 111 millimeters of rain, the King Abdulaziz University's (KAU) Meteorology Department said. Mansour Al-Mazrouie, head of the department, said Wednesday's volume of rainfall exceeded the 90 mm recorded in four hours during the Nov. 25, 2009 flash floods that killed at least 123 people and damaged thousands of vehicles and homes.
The average amount of rain during the winter months (November to January) is about 51 mm. He said what Jeddah is presently witnessing is due to climate change. As of Wednesday afternoon, reports of three electrocuted teens, hundreds of stranded students and a broken dam were pouring in from different parts of the city. Civil Defense officials, however, said there were yet no reports of any deaths related to the flooding.
Eyewitnesses told Arab News that East Jeddah was swamped and floodwater was rushing west toward the Red Sea, turning streets into rivers once again. Witnesses say Um Al-Khair dam has been breached, flooding nearby neighborhoods. Water in Al-Hamra district was waist-deep in some places and some schools were keeping students from leaving. The heavy downpour did not begin until after students went to class where they are currently taking end-of-semester exams.
Unconfirmed reports came in saying three female students were electrocuted at KAU. It was not immediately clear if any of the young women were killed in the accident. Palestine Street, Madinah Road and Wali Al-Ahad Street were either flooded or jammed with traffic. Cars were seen floating in some places. Three hundred students at Dar Al-Hekma were still held up inside the college. At Effat College the situation was the same. Civil Defense advised tudents not to leave the premises and wait till the floods subside. Civil Defense officials, meanwhile, urged the public to stay home if there was no urgency to venture outside.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
With Genghis Khan as their new icon, climate activists now openly flaunt their anti-human ideology
“Genghis Khan and his Mongol hordes had an impact on the global carbon cycle as big as today’s annual demand for gasoline.”A study published by the website http://carsandpeople.sdsu.edu/ from San Diego State University goes so far to calculate one car is of 18 human equivalents. Accordingly, if Genghis Khan killed 40 million people, this is tantamount to 2,222,222 Genghis Khan Equivalents! Put simply, Genghis Khan and his Mongol hordes had an impact on the global carbon cycle as big as today’s annual demand for gasoline!
The study claimed that the Mongol invasion scrubbed off nearly 700 million tons of carbon from the atmosphere, cooling the planet as it roughly equals the amount of carbon global society now produces annually from gasoline. Climate Depot blog further reported that the study concluded:
“Over the course of the century and a half run of the Mongol Empire, about 22 percent of the world's total land area had been conquered and an estimated 40 million people were slaughtered by the horse-driven, bow-wielding hordes. Depopulation over such a large swath of land meant that countless numbers of cultivated fields eventually returned to forests.
In other words, one effect of Genghis Khan's unrelenting invasion was widespread reforestation, and the re-growth of those forests meant that more carbon could be absorbed from the atmosphere...the longevity of the Mongol invasion made it stand out as having the biggest impact on the world's climate."
‘El Nino-to-La Nina flip in 2010 rapidest ever'
Last year's transition from El Nino to La Nina was about the most sudden ever, according to Dr Tony Barnston, Chief Forecaster, International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
Rapid flips like this in the past have ended up precipitating a two-year La Nina, such as right after the El Nino episodes of 1972-73 and 1997-98.
The likelihood of this happening with the current La Nina is unknown, Dr Barnston says.
The term La Nina refers to a period of cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs as part of natural climate variability.
La Nina has been found to correlate well with a reasonably good concurrent Indian monsoon, though without any direct cause-effect relationship.
This situation is roughly the opposite of what happens during El Nino events, when waters in above-mentioned Pacific region are warmer-than-normal.
A strong El Nino, as witnessed during 2009, has correspondingly been associated with dry or drought conditions in India, but with honourable exceptions as in 1997.
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS
Both are part of a larger climate cycle known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
“Even if we do have a second year of La Nina developing in northern hemisphere summer 2011, we expect at least a brief return to neutral conditions from May to July of 2011,” he added.
Based on current observations and on predictions from models, the IRI sees at least a 90 per cent chance that La Nina conditions will continue through March 2011.
Because the Pacific is the largest ocean on the planet, any significant changes in average conditions there, such as those that occur during La Nina or El Nino, can have consequences for temperature, rainfall and vegetation in faraway places.
INTERESTING EPISODE
Once developed, La Nina conditions typically persist for 9-12 months, peaking sometime during November, December, or January.
But 2010 was an interesting and lively year for climate scientists, the IRI recalls.
For the first four months of this year, El Nino conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific, but that quickly changed, and by June, a La Nina pattern had emerged.
Since 1950, the world experienced six major La Niña events, which were linked to widespread flooding in some areas.
What La Niña does is increase the likelihood that certain areas will get above-normal or below-normal rainfall. Hence, it can be associated with droughts as well.
It keeps east Africa drier-than-usual, sparking food-security concerns in areas lacking irrigation, including parts of Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania.
Areas in southeastern South America, central southwest Asia, and the southern US may also see lower-than-normal rainfall for the first quarter of 2011.
But La Nina probably isn't to blame for the recent flooding in southeastern Brazil, says Dr Barnston.
The more likely culprit there was a pocket of above-average sea-surface temperatures in the southwest Atlantic that promoted low atmospheric pressure and an increased tendency for heavy rainfall, he says.
Cyclone over S-E Bay on 1-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/7y6z ... Will it strike Srilanka ?? or Will it materialize ?? ... not shared by other GFS
Surprise !! IMD-GFS is predicting a CYCLONE to form over S-E Bay on 1-Feb ... and expected to become severe !! ??.. http://ow.ly/i/7y6z
As of now, the upcoming UAC is predicted to give heavy rain for S-E and Central Tamilnadu on 1,2-Feb... http://ow.ly/i/7y69
The present Easterlies is so strong that it'll produce a UAC and Low pressure system over S. Bay on 29-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/7y5L
Present easterlies all along S. Bay will get stronger from 28-Jan and Srilanka will get Heavy showers till 30-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/7y5E
3:30pm, As expected.. due to Easterlies Heavy showers again over E, central and N.central Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7y5l
Monday, January 24, 2011
Nasa terms ongoing Indian winter as ‘deadly'
The US National Aeronautical and Space Administration (Nasa) has termed as ‘deadly' the 2010-11 winter bearing down on north India.
The cold even reached the city of Agra, where the mercury plunged to only one degree above freezing, Nasa said in a recent report.
DENSE HAZE
Northern parts of the country have been chilled by the cold wave that prompted officials to distribute blankets and firewood to those in the usually temperate region but without adequate shelter.
An image taken by Nasa's Terra satellite on January 14 showed a dense haze stretching from the foothills of the Himalayas southward into the metropolitan areas of New Delhi, Lucknow, Patna and Kolkata.
The haze was due to a combination of cold-weather fog thinning during the daytime, burning of wood and other fuels to battle the chill as well as farmers setting agricultural burns typical of the season.
POOR VISIBILITY
The ensuing smoke reduced visibility caused extensive disruption to rail, road and air transportation across the region over the past three weeks.
Meanwhile, the Nasa report coincided with the latest national agro-met advisory bulletin brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that called on farmers to arrange for more smoking around the field to prevent the crops from cold/frost injury.
Minimum temperatures have been below normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and interior Orissa, the IMD report said.
Farmers in these regions have also been advised to apply light and frequent irrigation to the standing crops.
SOUTHERN COLD
In Telangana and Rayalaseema in peninsular India, the nurseries of vegetables may be covered with polythene sheet to protect seedlings from cold/frost injury.
But low temperature conditions prevailing in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are favourable for the wheat crop which is at tillering stage.
However, frost damage of potato has been reported in parts of Uttarakhand.
Frost has been reported also from Malwa plateau in Madhya Pradesh.
The bulletin advised farmers to apply light and frequent irrigation to standing crops and arrange for smoking around the field.
Nurseries of the vegetable crops are particularly vulnerable and should be protected by covering with plastic sheets.
MAIZE CROP
Taking the advantage of mostly dry weather in several parts of the country, farmers were advised to adopt intercultural operation to the crops followed by irrigation.
As the maize crop is sensitive to moisture and nutrients, stress irrigation and nutrient management have been advised for better yields and to help the cob attain full length with good quality grains.
Tomato
Tomato may be adversely affected due to frost in Meghalaya and needs irrigation.
Early harvesting may also be useful in saving the crop, the bulletin said.
Crops are in good condition in southern States of the country. However, given lack of any significant rain, irrigation may be applied to the standing crops to ensure good harvest.
The upcoming easterlies may throw a UAC over S-W Bay along S-E Srilanka in another 72 hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/7uJQ
4pm, Already we can see S,S-E bay are getting active ahead of upcoming strong easterlies ... http://ow.ly/i/7uId
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Next easterlies will bring showers again to E.Srilanka from 26-Jan till month end... http://ow.ly/i/7ry7
A strong easterlies will start to fill the S-E Bay below 10th parallel from 24-Jan and start to move west.. http://ow.ly/i/7ry0
Central India will host a Anti-Cyclone from 23-Jan to 26-Jan... Already we have the system over W.central India... http://ow.ly/i/7rxI
Breaking: Indian Environment Ministry formally challenges Human induced Global Warming
Jairam Ramesh, India's dynamic Environment Minister has done it again. A paper published by his ministry termed UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s claim on human induced global warming, as highly exaggerated as the latter's impact is significantly reduced by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) that is responsible for low cloud formation over earth in the last 150 years.
The paper's lead author was U R Rao, former chairman of Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and was released by Jairam Ramesh himself. Analyzing the data between 1960 and 2005, Rao found that lesser GCRs were reaching the earth due to increase in solar magnetic field and thereby leading to increase in global warming. Says the paper:
The paper's lead author was U R Rao, former chairman of Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and was released by Jairam Ramesh himself. Analyzing the data between 1960 and 2005, Rao found that lesser GCRs were reaching the earth due to increase in solar magnetic field and thereby leading to increase in global warming. Says the paper:
“We conclude that the contribution to climate change due to the change in galactic cosmic ray intensity is quite significant and needs to be factored into the prediction of global warming and its effect on sea level raise and weather prediction.”
The real blow to the global warmist movement is when Jairam Ramesh defended climate scepticism and cautioned against foreign funded agendas of environmental organizations and NGOs like WWF, Greenpeace, Oxfam, Christian Aid, ActionAid in the name of Climate Justice activism etc :
“There is a groupthink in climate science today. Anyone who raises alternative climate theories is immediately branded as a climate atheist in an atmosphere of climate evangelists,” he said. “Climate science is incredibly more complex than [developed countries] negotiators make it out to be… Climate science should not be driven by the West. We should not always be dependent on outside reports.”
Friday, January 21, 2011
5pm, Rain pushing into Iran from Saudi Arabia ... N-W India waiting for more cloudiness ... http://ow.ly/i/7pxY
Present strong N-W or westerlies will continue to sweep across central, N-W India till 25-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/7pfa
Latest Snippet:
Secondary low (to W.D.) formed on the Rajasthan/Pakistan border, larger portion into Sindh. Possibility of cloudy weather in South Rajasthan and light rain in some areas on 21/22.
An Easterly wave may get some momentum in the Bay and move towards Sri Lanka. Possibility of precipitation nearing Eastern Sri Lanka by Monday,24th.
Secondary low (to W.D.) formed on the Rajasthan/Pakistan border, larger portion into Sindh. Possibility of cloudy weather in South Rajasthan and light rain in some areas on 21/22.
An Easterly wave may get some momentum in the Bay and move towards Sri Lanka. Possibility of precipitation nearing Eastern Sri Lanka by Monday,24th.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
3pm, Heavy cloud cover over entire N and most of N-W India due to the western disturbance .. http://ow.ly/i/7nyp
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Another western disturbance will start over W. Kashmir from evening of 20-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/7m7j
Like Kerala ’s Kasaragod, neighbouring Dakshina Kannada is bearing the brunt of spraying of endosulfan ... http://ow.ly/3GoxG
The Batticaloa District has received a rainfall of 1606.2 mm
The Batticaloa District has received a rainfall of 1606.2 mm just in 42 days during the period from 1st December 2010 to 12th January 2011, almost equal to its total annual rainfall. The total rainfall experienced in Batticaloa from January 1st to 12th of this month is 894.8 mm.
The annual total rainfall of the district was 1650.9 mm. Similarly at Trincomalee a rainfall of 1030.6 mm. has been received during the same period while its annual rainfall was 1580.1 mm.
This unusual weather pattern can mostly be attributed to the intense La Nina condition prevailing in the tropical Pacific Ocean since April 2010 with similar abnormal weather conditions being observed over various parts of the world such as Australia, Europe, Brazil and Iran etc.
The annual total rainfall of the district was 1650.9 mm. Similarly at Trincomalee a rainfall of 1030.6 mm. has been received during the same period while its annual rainfall was 1580.1 mm.
This unusual weather pattern can mostly be attributed to the intense La Nina condition prevailing in the tropical Pacific Ocean since April 2010 with similar abnormal weather conditions being observed over various parts of the world such as Australia, Europe, Brazil and Iran etc.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
RT @wxchannel: Australia flood is now called one of the costliest in the country's history. http://bit.ly/fTAKCV
looks like a multiple year La Nina
Meteorological researchers and scientists around the world are now seized of the possibility of the ‘peaking' La Nina mutating into a multiple-year event.
The ‘super drencher' that evolved over the east-central Pacific during the last year and unleashed its fury over disparate continents may now be on the mend, according to top researchers.
AT ITS PEAK
But any ‘dramatic weakening' is ruled out, in any case, they aver. Dr Jing-Jia Luo, a leading Tokyo-based researcher informed Business Line that strong La Nina has reached its peak intensity and climb down intensity over the following months.
A Senior Scientist at the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at the Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), an affiliate of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Jamstec), he, however, maintained that the Pacific event would still be ‘long-lasting' and persist until early 2012.
This is what makes it a multiple-year event, agrees Prof Bin Wang, Professor of Meteorology, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Centre at the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii.
LIKELY CHANCE
“This looks like a multiple year La Nina. This seems very likely. Several previous strong La Nina events have tended to last longer than a year,” Prof Wang says.
Dr William Patzert, an oceanographer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the US National Aeronautical and Space Administration, too, has taken exception to the La Nina event.
“In contrast with the more spectacular but shorter duration El Nino and La Niña events, this multiple-year trend may be part of a decade-long pattern known as the Pacific decadal oscillation,” Dr Patzert said. Closer home, India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected that there is a 50 per cent possibility of La Nina persisting around mid-year this year.
In its latest assessment, the Japanese RIGC said that associated with this strong La Nina event, global mean surface air temperature has decreased in last month and severe cold stormy weather unfolded in northern Eurasia and parts of North America. Surface air temperature in Eurasia, northern North America, Australia, Brazil, and Africa would continue to be below normal in following months.
More precipitation and flood events would occur in Australia, South Africa and Brazil during the first few months of 2011.
East China and Japan would have a hot summer in 2011 in association with the extended La Nina condition.
5pm, Snow and Rain due to western disturbance has cleared... Still some showers linger along E,S-W of Srilanka... http://ow.ly/i/7klJ
Another western disturbance to hit Kashmir from evening of 20-Jan... and S, S-E Bay will be active again from 24-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/7kjr
Monday, January 17, 2011
June 2010: Drought in Sri Lanka is your fault; January 2011: Record rain in Sri Lanka is your fault - Tom Nelson
Droughts, floods, cold, heat and what have you, everything is climate change. Six months ago, Sri Lanka experienced a drought due to the El Niño effect and this month a flood due to the La Niña effect. "Sustainable or organic farming" had been given a big boost by humanitarian organizations after the Tsunami of 2004.
And yet, the drought and floods within a space of six months have pushed Sri Lanka into a food crisis - the food shortage to be felt in the months ahead. All their "sustainable" experiments"washed away by these weather extremes.
When will NGOs get over their global warming obsession? They can only start making an impact if they track ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) a natural oceanic cycle, in their adaptation and mitigation programmes.
Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2011/01/june-2010-drought-in-sri-lanka-is-your.html
What helped bring rains in huge quantities over Rajasthan and Gujarat during the monsoon-2010 ??... http://ow.ly/3EZDX
An anti-cyclone will form over central India on 22-Jan and Entire Tamilnadu is goin to be WINDY from 21-Jan to 25-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/7iGK
3pm, Entire Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakand, Punjab and Haryana is cloudy with rain and snow... Will last for next 24 hrs. http://ow.ly/i/7iFo
2010 was India's hottest year in recorded history
It now appears that the country may have endured the hottest year in 2010 in recorded history even as cold wave to severe cold wave conditions persist in north and north-west concurrently.
Mean annual temperature for the country as a whole during the last year was +0.93 deg Celsius above the 1961-1990 average.
WARMEST YEAR
It was slightly higher than that of the year 2009, making 2010 as the warmest year on record since 1901, an annual climate summary issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
Abnormally warm conditions (heat wave) prevailed over major parts of the country during March and April months claiming more than 300 lives.
The Pre-monsoon season was the warmest since 1901 with mean temperature being 1.8 deg Celsius above normal.
It is also found that the decade 2001-2010 has been the warmest decade with a temperature anomaly of 0.40 C.
LA NINA OUTLOOK
The annual total rainfall for the country as a whole was normal during 2010 with actual rainfall of 121.5 cm against the long period average (LPA) of 119.7 cm.
Monsoon season contributes about 75 per cent of total annual rainfall for the country as a whole. Seasonal rainfall during 2010 was 102 per cent of its LPA.
Significantly, the IMD says that probabilities for La Nina conditions are 94 per cent or more through the January-February-March, 2011.
These conditions, which are considered monsoon-friendly, are forecast to not drop to below 50 per cent until the April-June season, the IMD outlook said.
Analysing the report, sources in the Ministry of Earth Sciences said the hot summer and the eventful wet to wetter season were not confined to India alone.
SYSTEM LOCK-IN
While parts of Europe experienced flooding conditions during the period under reference, Russia underwent the fiercest drought in living memory.
A warming anomaly materialised over India as a semi-permanent ridge (high-pressure system with dry, sinking air in contrast to low-pressure systems with moist, rising air) locked into position across the northwest border.
This had effect of shutting out the calming influence of western disturbances, allowing the hot climes to anchor themselves over the region.
Lesser movement of western disturbances, however, worked to the advantage of the country with the monsoon circulation spared of having to run into the opposing flows associated with western disturbances.
According to sources, this is what helped bring rains in huge quantities over Rajasthan and Gujarat during the monsoon.
Death toll due to heavy rains/floods during the monsoon was more than 500, mostly from northern and northwestern parts, the IMD report said.
A cloud burst in early hours of August 6 in Leh claimed more than 150 lives and more than 500 people are missing.
It is now a given that the atmosphere has warmed up to unprecedented levels, the sources explained. A warmed up atmosphere has the capacity to hold correspondingly larger amount of moisture.
Since the atmosphere cannot hold the moisture for too long, it cannot but precipitate. The air masses transport the moisture from areas of higher pressure to those of lower pressure.
Depending on locally evolving favourable conditions, clouds build up and the moisture gets precipitated.
The spatial distribution is not equal at any given point of time, with seasonal ‘hot spots' receiving the largest precipitation.
The monsoon region offers itself up as a ‘hot spot' and the weather gets amplified over disparate locations depending on extra moisture load in the air mass.
These phenomena are revealed in their gigantic size and scale in the deep ocean basins of the Pacific and the Atlantic where tropical storms and cyclones sustain themselves for up to a week.
Not to the same extent in the rather ‘closed basins' of the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal where these systems can live up to three or four days at the most.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
A strong Westerlies will travel across central India from today till 19-Jan and more coming after 20-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/7hqN
From 17-Jan, N, central Bay will have dry winds from North and from Land... which will fill entire Bay around 19-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/7hqw
Today most of the S. Tamilnadu and S.Kerala had a medium high cloud cover with some mild showers, drizzles... http://ow.ly/i/7hqi
RT @balajisanjeev: Sky is still cloudy (at 9.35) over Chidambaram, no sign of sun yet (On Pongal !! day) .. http://ping.fm/uZ28U
RT @weathernetwork: Australian floods wreak fresh havoc on rural communities in the south. http://ping.fm/MvhXY
At last the UAC over S_W Bay has moved S-W and now over S-W of Srilanka along 5th parallel ... http://ow.ly/i/7hpV
Friday, January 14, 2011
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Sri Lanka Faces La Nina's Wrath: Devastating Floods leave 21 dead, One million displaced
The troubles of Tamil population in East Sri Lanka appears never ending. The heaviest rain in 18 years flooded Sri Lanka left about 11 dead. Mudslides caused by heavy rains and floods in Sri Lanka have additionally killed around ten people. These floods were especially bad news for people in the east, who in recent years have also endured a civil war and a tsunami. The Disaster Management Center said more than 1 million becoming homeless.
As humanitarian agencies get ready to swing into action, we hope that this post will provide a preliminary insight on the scale and challenges of the response and also what climatic factors is responsible for nightmarish floods simultaneously in Australia, Brazil and Sri Lanka.
Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2011/01/sri-lanka-faces-la-ninas-wrath.html
Flooding in Australia
The airport, the Bruce Highway, and large swaths of Rockhampton, Australia, remained under water on January 9, 2011. Days of rain pushed the Fitzroy River over its banks, inundating parts of the city near the Queensland coast. Damage to the Bruce Highway was not confined to Rockhampton, as ABC News Australia reported other parts of the highway were expected to remain under water for some time.
In this image, acquired by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite on January 9, 2011, isolated islands of cityscape poke through murky brown flood waters. The Fitzroy River cuts through the upper right quadrant of the image and, just west of the river, relatively high land remains above the flood.
Rockhampton was just one of many Australian communities reeling from floods. Farmers along the Sunshine Coast were stranded by high waters that washed out roads. Authorities in Brisbane, Australia’s third-largest city, told residents to evacuate in anticipation of the worst flooding in several decades.
Western disturbance for Kashmir, Himachal from today till 16-Jan... Heavy snow/rain possible on 14,15-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/7bH2
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
9pm, Massive showers over Srilanka continue... due to "90B" and S,S-E Tamilnadu having some drizzles... http://ow.ly/i/7avC
Heavy Rains in Sri Lanka :: NASA report
Heavy rains forced 120,000 people out of their homes in Sri Lanka, the Associated Press reported on January 11, 2011. Sri Lanka’s government stated that the death toll from flooding had risen to 13, and officials were arranging food drops to hardest-hit areas in the east.
This color-coded image shows rainfall amounts over Sri Lanka and the Bay of Bengal from January 3–9. The heaviest rainfall appears in dark blue, and the lightest rainfall appears in light green. The heaviest precipitation is concentrated over eastern Sri Lanka.
This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.
Core of Bay ‘low' "90B" may skip Tamil Nadu coast
A low-pressure area has been prowling the waters of southwest Bay of Bengal over the past couple of days, but it is initially seen as propelling itself towards eastern Sri Lanka coast.
Dry winds
Forecast analysis shows the winds over the southern peninsular India would be drier and colder northwesterly-to-northerlies blowing in from the plains of the north and west.
The wind pattern is forecast to shift to being rain-friendly easterlies only from the weekend, with scattered rains dropping over southern coastal Tamil Nadu.
This might translate into isolated showers over the interior parts of the State as well as the adjoining southern Kerala, even as the core of the erstwhile ‘low' wallows in the southern Arabian Sea.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its outlook bulletin that isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over extreme south peninsular India on Wednesday and Thursday but scale up thereafter.
MERCURY CLIMB
Meanwhile, the weather over northwest India might turn a shade for the better with the arrival of a western disturbance marked by rising motion of air upfront, convection, build-up of clouds and snow and rainfall.
Growing cloudiness will cause minimum and maximum temperatures to rise by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over parts of northwest and central India.
Cold wave
This would in turn lead to abatement of cold wave conditions over some parts of these regions.
But fog to shallow fog would envelop parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and some parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. This may progressively extend over Assam and Meghalaya also.
Forecast valid until Friday said scattered rain or snowfall would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, while it would be isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Rain likely
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to unfold over the plains of northwest India from Thursday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says the core of the westerly system would drift in across the northwest border around Friday, but the warming impact is expected to unfold from Wednesday.
An IMD outlook said the western disturbance would affect weather over the western Himalayan region during the rest of the week starting Wednesday.
The impact would be felt over the adjoining plains of northwest India from Thursday.
Meanwhile, international weather models see no big churn in the weather over northwest India after the westerly system passes.
There is no big follow-up westerly system seen anytime until January 21, which would clear up the air for cold to colder northwesterly winds to blow into the plains.
Relatively colder conditions are being forecast for even the southern peninsula, with only the fringes of the west and southwest coasts being the exception.
Nearly 1 million people affected in Sri Lanka floods .. and LOW "90B" is still there ... more to come ... http://ow.ly/3CsCm
A huge anti-cyclone expected over central India and it's cold winds expected over Chennai and N. Tamilnadu on 14,15-Jan. http://ow.ly/i/7afs
The present UAC "90B" will persist and move slowly in S-W direction and then on 15-Jan it'll move West and weaken... http://ow.ly/i/7afd
6pm, Due to "90B" entire srilanka is under heavy cloud cover and spill over is happening over S, S-E of Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/7aeS
Yesterday's UAC and LOW "90B" is persisting over S_W Bay near E-S-E of Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7aeK
What happens when WWF is in charge of the weather department?
This is a fast developing story. The forecast that global temperatures will rise by 4C by the end of this century is provided by the UK Met Office which Climate Justice Activists latch on to create mass hysteria.
So you may ask, why a photo of the popular Jack Nicholson movie “One flew over Cuckoo’s Nest”?
So you may ask, why a photo of the popular Jack Nicholson movie “One flew over Cuckoo’s Nest”?
It’s because, the head of the Met Office was the former chief of WWF, UK and paid a salary higher than the Prime Minister of the UK. He brought with him many of his WFF colleagues with him. They practically run the UK Met Office.
For the last 3 years, the Met Office consistently predicted barbeque summers and milder winters to end up with mud on their faces. Last year, despite their winter forecast turning wrong, the Met Office still believed that cold winters will become rare:
For the last 3 years, the Met Office consistently predicted barbeque summers and milder winters to end up with mud on their faces. Last year, despite their winter forecast turning wrong, the Met Office still believed that cold winters will become rare:
"The winter so far has been one of the coldest for nearly 30 years in Britain, but such icy weather was more common in centuries past and should become even rarer going forward."This year too they had been reduced to a laughing stock when their current winter forecast proved a failure - the third in successive years. But now they are fighting for their credibility by claiming that they informed the British government in late October this year of the possibility of a very cold winter, which is great if true. The problem is that they feed the BBC and the general public a contrary forecast - you guessed it, milder winter. The Met Office is the official weather agency for the BBC, so why this duplicity?
Once this story broke out, the BBC got so enraged that they filed a Freedom of Information request that pitted the BBC, Met Office and UK government one against the other. Public opinion within UK is growing to institute a parliamentary probe on this matter. The global warming propaganda machine of the UK is finally beginning to get unstuck. And once it does, it will be to the utter embarrassment of NGOs and environmental organizations that tout themselves as Climate Justice Movement!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)