A chain of at least four low-pressure areas extending from South China Sea and linking Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea has set up an active monsoon trough having north-easterly to easterly winds turning south-westerlies to the south.
The seasonal anti-cyclone sitting over North-West India and a barrage of north-easterly winds along its southern flanks is helping the cause of this monsoon trough packing seasonal winds on retreat from the North-East.
NORTH-EAST MONSOON
The North-East monsoon may well and truly have made its onset over South China Sea and the littoral nations in South-East Asia.
It might just be a matter of time before it calls up along the South-East coast of India to the West across the Bay of Bengal if the build up in upstream South China Sea are any indication.
The Thailand Met Department has spoken about in detail about the active monsoon trough that lies across upper southern and eastern Thailand.
This has already triggered torrential rain and heavy falls over much of this South-East Asian country.
Severe weather and flash floods have been warned of over the next two days.
BAY ‘LOW' FORMS
The Andaman Sea would witness very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain.
The south-westerly winds flanking a freshly new low-pressure area that sprung up over the Bay of Bengal one day ahead of forecasts on Monday sped up to 35 km/hour, the Thai Met Department said.
Meanwhile, on Monday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon withdrawal process continued to stay put along Central India with weather systems from peninsular seas ‘drawing a line.'
WIDESPREAD RAIN
An existing ‘low' in the Arabian Sea basin may have weakened but it was still able to bring fairly widespread rainfall over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, South Konkan and Goa, apart from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
The rains were scattered over Tamil Nadu, Interior Karnataka and Madhya Maharashtra during this period.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-producing) clouds over many parts of Central and South Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea (thanks to the new ‘low' in the Bay) and over South and East-Central Arabian Sea.
An IMD outlook suggested that the ‘low' over East-Central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood could become more marked during the next two days.
In fact, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is predicting a long haul for the system, with a dipping westerly trough from North-West India expected to scoop up the system just off the Chennai-South Andhra Pradesh coasts and cause it to careen off the coast launch for an eventful landfall over Orissa-Gangetic West Bengal coast.
The ECMWF has gone to the extent of predicting a follow-up ‘low' over Central Bay of Bengal around October 13, though the final call is not yet out.
An IMD warning for heavy weather valid for the next two days has said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over coastal areas of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh from Tuesday.
Forecast until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over South Peninsular India, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and adjoining Maharashtra and Goa.
Scattered rain or thundershowers is likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and the North-Eastern States during the next two days and increase thereafter.
Isolated to scattered rainfall may occur over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand from Tuesday onwards. Mainly dry weather would prevail over North-West and adjoining Central India.
Extended forecast until Saturday has suggested fairly widespread rainfall over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and the North-Eastern States.
No comments:
Post a Comment