India Meteorological Department (IMD) too has joined the outlook of international weather models for a brewing low-pressure area in West-central Bay of Bengal over the next two days.
A causative upper air cyclonic circulation has already been triggered over the central parts of Andaman Sea, an IMD update said on Sunday.
An existing ‘low' that has been prowling the Arabian Sea waters across the peninsula for over the past few days, bringing most of the area under a wet cover.
LIKELY INTERACTION
Model consensus predicts the possibility of the Bay system approaching the Chennai coast and setting up an interaction with a western disturbance featuring an associated trough dipping deep into Central India.
An upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over Northwest Rajasthan signalling the turn of events as ‘atmospherically engineered' from across the international border.
The interaction could bring a fresh wave of rains over the East Coast of India and adjoining peninsula during the course of the week, according to varied model forecasts.
This would also make for the first productive interaction post-southwest monsoon between an extra-tropical system (western disturbance) and a tropical one (emerging from the peninsular seas).
MONSOON ENDS
The southwest monsoon recorded 102 per cent rainfall during the four-month season ending September 30, which matched the lower end of the band that IMD's long-term projections had estimated.
In a significant turnaround from an El Nino-inspired drought year during the 2009 monsoon, the current year's season saw 31 Met subdivisions (13 during last year) recording excess rainfall.
Jharkhand (-41 per cent); Gangetic West Bengal (-31 per cent) East Uttar Pradesh (-23 per cent) and Bihar (-22 per cent) in East India and Assam and Meghalaya (-23 per cent) in North-east were the five subdivisions to record deficit rainfall during this year.
This compares significantly well with the 23 deficit Met subdivisions of the last year.
As it turned out, La Nina conditions (or El Nino in reverse) have proved the major differentiator during the current season.
Excess rains during the season have mostly fallen over peninsular India and Northwest India in what are two signature rainfall anomalies that a La Nina is known to leave over mainland India.
Meanwhile, an IMD update of weather over the last 24 hours ending on Sunday morning said that fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Kerala, South Tamil Nadu, South and Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
This has continued to hold the withdrawal line of southwest monsoon pinned to the northeast-to-southwest axis linking Raxaul, Patna, Sidhi, Bhopal, Ratlam, Ahmedabad and Porbandar.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-generating) clouds over parts of Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, South Tamil Nadu, East-central and South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and South and East-central Arabian Sea.
A heavy weather alert valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It would be isolated heavy over Lakshadweep, Kerala, South Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Forecast valid until Friday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over South Peninsular, East and Northeast India.
An agri-met advisory put out by the IMD said that dry and sunny conditions in North-west are favourable for harvesting and post-harvesting operations of kharif crops.
Farmers have been are advised to undertake harvesting of rice and maize in Jammu and Kashmir; rice in Uttarkhand; bajra, jowar and maize in Rajasthan; and soyabean, maize, sorghum, sesame, green gram and black gram in Madhya Pradesh.
Flooding and water logging situation persists in some districts of Uttar Pradesh. Damage has been reported in standing crops like rice, soyabean, black gram, green gram, sesamum, jowar and bajra from some districts of the central plain zone, Bundelkhand and the western plain zones in Uttar Pradesh.
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