The prevailing La Nina condition would be more long-lasting than thought earlier and may continue until early 2012, according to updated forecasts from the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC).
Formerly called the Frontier Research Centre for Global Change, the RIGC is an affiliate of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Jamstec).
In an e-mailed communication, Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist at the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at RIGC, said that the La Nina has continued to develop quickly in July.
Dr Jing-Jia maintained a watch for a fairly strong cold event to occur in the following months, and peak around the end of 2010.
Associated with this strong La Nina influence, above-normal rainfall would continue over East Asia, Indonesia, northern parts of South America, Australia, apart from India, even going into winter. Dr Jing-Jia also did not find any reason to change the outlook for a colder than normal winter for many parts of the globe, including in India. The only exceptions are likely to be Europe, northern reaches of the Eurasian continent and south-eastern flanks of North America.
Meanwhile, an outlook from the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University suggested that the wet weather over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and adjoining Interior Peninsula would persist until Friday.
Based on initial conditions obtained on Sunday, the IRI expected that parts of North-west India – Central and West-central Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan across the international border – might continue to receive showers during this period.
RAINS FOR PAKISTAN
East, East-central and North-east Pakistan, with maximum exposure to the whims and fancies of the rain-driving monsoon trough lying next door over India – that may act in concert with the odd western disturbance — are expected to undergo another round of precipitation. Very heavy rainfall has also been forecast over the entire western half of Nepal and adjoining Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, as the monsoon trough inches closer to lie along the foothills. In fact, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its updated forecast on Tuesday, that the monsoon trough would shift closer to the foothills on Wednesday.
The last 24 hours, ending Tuesday afternoon, saw widespread rainfall occur over the West Coast while it was fairly widespread over Lakshadweep, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya.
Satellite cloud imagery revealed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the North-eastern States, East-central India and the plains of Northwest India, Andhra Pradesh, East-central and South-east Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and East Arabian Sea.
RAIN ALERT
A heavy rainfall warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-eastern States, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Outlook until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-eastern States and the West Coast.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
MORE TO COME
As mentioned earlier, the intensity of rainfall along the foothills of the Himalayas is expected to scale up from Wednesday.
Extended forecast until Sunday (August 22) also spoke about the possibility of widespread rainfall activity over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.
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