India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put the Western Himalayas, adjoining plains and parts of East India under close scrutiny for the next two days for heavy to very heavy rainfall events.
Widespread rainfall has already been reported from Uttarakhand during the 24 hours ending on Wednesday afternoon, an IMD update said.
MORE AREAS
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been predicted over West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and East Rajasthan in North and north-west India during the next two days.
Towards the east, the warning is valid for Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.
This is attributed to the presence of the monsoon trough along the foothills where a steady stream of moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal is being directed to.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Isolated heavy to very heavy rains have also been forecast for the West Coast, especially Konkan and Goa, during the next two days.
Apart from Uttarakhand and the West Coast, fairly widespread overnight rain was reported from the north-eastern States, East Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar islands.
Satellite pictures indicated the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan.
They were also visible over North Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, the north-eastern States, North Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, East-central and South Bay of Bengal, and East Arabian Sea.
The offshore trough from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persisted, indicating favourable conditions for rain or thundershowers.
US FORECAST
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has assessed increased chances for above-normal rainfall for the region extending from South Asia to the Maritime Continent.
This would bring the south-east coast of India and the Bay of Bengal under rain cover during this period.
On a scale of one to three in terms of increasing confidence level, the CPC gave a ‘high' to the eventuality, with South China Sea likely throwing up the odd cyclone.
The CPC attributed this to prevailing La Nina conditions that favour a concurrent Indian monsoon, numerical weather guidance and above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs).
WEST COAST RECESS
However, the proceedings on the West Coast could in the meantime see a brief let-up, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The CPC has extended the wet weather outlook to the following week (August 24-30) as well, with the rain cover over India's south-east coast digging further into East-central India.
Meanwhile, short-term forecasts by the IMD valid until Saturday spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the north-eastern States.
Significantly, it suggested that the widespread rain or thundershowers would persist over the West Coast on Thursday, which may decrease thereafter. This is in line with the ECMWF outlook.
MORE RAIN FORECAST
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh and Gangetic West Bengal during this period.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast for the rest of the country.
Extended forecasts until Monday said that widespread rainfall would occur over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and the north-eastern States.
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