India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects an increase in rainfall activity over the north-west region, along with east and north-east India, from July 20 onwards. Large parts of Rajasthan, except eastern flanks of the State, have remained without rain over the past week or two.
The Global Forecast System model of the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services indicates that rains may manage to penetrate the desert State during this phase.
RAJASTHAN OUTLOOK
While northern parts of the State are expected to receive the rains during the week ending July 22, the week that follows (July 23 to 29) would see the wet cover being extended to the rest of the State, the CPC outlook says.
The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy seemed to concur with this view, with easterlies beginning to fill the northern plains around this time to scare away invading northwesterlies.
The FNMOC forecasts showed a blob of heavy rain sitting over west Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan border and aiming to venture further west-northwest into Rajasthan during this period.
Meanwhile, away in the north-west Pacific, contrary to forecasts, Tropical Storm Conson is now expected to turn north-west and enter the South China Sea aiming to hit southwest China coast.
The London-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Group had expected Conson to move in a linear fashion after leaving the Philippine archipelago and head straight towards the southeast coast of China.
NO BIG CHANGE
But this does not mean a major change in the landfall schedule, the TSR Group seemed to suggest, which is fixed around Saturday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) also agrees with this schedule, which could just give the go-ahead for monsoon flows to revive over Arabian Sea two days hence.
The flows were instead being diverted to feed the Pacific storm system, before a bulk could make it to the Arabian Sea.
A deep westerly trough is shown dipping into Rajasthan as the Arabian Sea flows revive, forcing an incumbent high-pressure cell over the region to step back to the west and beyond the international border.
CYCLONIC WHIRL
Meanwhile on Thursday, the IMD located the previous day's upper air cyclonic circulation (in lieu of the low-pressure area that did not materialise) over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood.
The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting quoted model predictions to suggest that the monsoon may lie along near-normal axis during the next three days.
But it may once again shift back to the foothills of the Himalayas. The back and forth swing of the trough would bring variously heavy rainfall over east-central, east and eastern parts of North-West India.
The IMD has said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over the west coast, East Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, the Northeastern States, West Madhya Pradesh and Lakshadweep during this period.
Scattered rainfall has been indicated over Uttarkhand, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and south Interior Karnataka.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over west Uttar Pradesh on Friday and increase thereafter, the IMD said.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days.
Isolated heavy rainfall has also been forecast over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during this period.
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