Friday, July 16, 2010

Arabian Sea flows to revive early next week

The revival of monsoon flows over the Arabian Sea would be delayed until early next week (by July 19-20), according to international model forecasts.
The delay is mainly attributed to the Northwest Pacific cyclone (typhoon) named Conson, which has been siphoning off a chunk of India-bound flows away from the equatorial seas.
Conson is expected to weaken after a second landfall over southeast China over the next two to three days.

On Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) apparently withdrew the previous day's forecast for a low-pressure area to spring up in the northwest Bay of Bengal.
Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed the monsoon flows being guided away from equatorial Indian Ocean to feed tropical storm Conson.
In return, the Bay has had to content itself with an upper air cyclonic circulation that lay parked over Gangetic West Bengal and neighbourhood.
This circulation is forecast to spin its way northwest over east India, which promises to bring more heavy rains over east India and along the foothills of the Himalayas.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) saw monsoon flows making a smart turnaround by early next week. Most of the monsoon activity is shown to be concentrated over peninsular India, aided by likely low-pressure areas over the seas on either side.

The rainfall is expected to be stronger on the eastern and southeastern coast according to forecasts valid until July 24.
On Wednesday, strong southwesterly winds continued to prevail over Gujarat and Rajasthan in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
But the western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood was in the process of moving away eastwards.
This is expected to let the monsoon trough jettison itself from the Himalayan foothills where it is locked into.
The IMD quoted numerical weather prediction models to suggest that the axis of the monsoon trough may indeed shift to the southwards during the two days.

Forecasts until Saturday indicated that widespread rain or thundershowers would continue to lash East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
Heavy to very heavy rains during the last few days have improved the overall rainfall scenario in east and northeast India, bringing the deficit down to 21 per cent, the most among the four homogenous regions.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
Isolated heavy rainfall activity is likely over east Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Vidarbha during this period.
As for the rest of the week, fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, the Northeastern States, West Madhya Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
The rains would be scattered over Uttarakhand, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Saurashtra and Kutch.
Towards the west and central India, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over west coast and scattered over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and South Interior Karnataka and isolated over Uttar Pradesh before scaling up from Thursday.

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