JTWC warning
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220300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 51.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (BANDU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212338Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DECOUPLED EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 02A IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED. TC BANDU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF ADEN. INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS HINDERED BY LAND, THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND VWS INCREASES. BY TAU 48, TC 02A SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS THAN THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z
JTWC projected path
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