Friday, February 26, 2010
Thursday, February 25, 2010
A strong western disturbance is waiting to move in over north-west India in next 36 hrs .. http://ping.fm/FZ0ah
Sat.shot shows, Entire Indian peninsula is clear now, with some medium high cloud formation near Chennai .. http://ping.fm/N9iX0
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Weather in north-west undergoes tricky transition
Weather over north-west India, strategically crucial from the viewpoint of the health of the standing rabi crop and its prospects, is undergoing a critical transition from winter (spring) to summer.
BEST WINTER
This is the one of the most testing times to read weather and the need for accurate forecasts, especially with regard to fluctuations in temperature, cannot be gainsaid, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, leading operational forecaster and Adviser to the Department of Science and Technology.
The 2009-10 winter has been one of the best with adequate rainfall and low temperatures which have stood the rabi wheat crop in great stead, Dr Gupta told Business Line.
Given this context, it is not outlandish to expect a bumper crop this year, but with a caveat. And this has reference to only the uptrend in temperature during the most vulnerable period, as emerges now, when the crop is reaching maturity.
The situation is made trickier by the fact that the harvest festival of ‘Holi' falls on March 1 this year, much earlier than usual. Normally, ‘Holi' falls in late March to coincide with the time around which harvesting operations begin.
But this time round, farmers would need to wait almost a month post-Holi for harvesting to begin. By then, the temperature regime would have made a decisive turn to inch up marking the turn from spring to summer, Dr Gupta said.
The maximum temperature is expected to start looking up as early as from this Friday February 26. A rise in maximum temperature is often mistaken to mean the advent of summer.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
The transition to summer is complete only when the minimum temperatures too starts rising, which would be around March 1 this season, the day of Holi, Dr Gupta said. This would leave the crop to the mercy of the elements for at least a month.
The maximum temperature level over the plains of northwest India is currently in the range of 27-28 deg Celsius. The upper threshold limit is 30-35 deg Celsius beyond which the mercury would have a debilitating impact on the crop.
Only western disturbances, one of which is currently holding sway, can help moderate the climes in the north and northwest. But forecasts indicate no big system arriving into the northwest until March 1 to bring along cloudiness and rains. Some weak systems are expected to check in during this phase but their influence would be limited to within the hilly regions of the northwest – that is western Himalayas.
WESTERLY SYSTEMS
While a western disturbance is currently in the final stages of its activity over the western Himalayas, a fresh one is approaching and will start impacting the region from Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
(vinson@thehindu.co.in)
Minimum temperatures are above normal by 2-5 deg Celsius over parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, north Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures too are above normal over south Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and the north eastern States.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir during next two days and may increase thereafter. Isolated to scattered rain or snow is also likely over Himachal Pradesh from Thursday and over Uttarakhand from Friday.
Isolated light rain or thundershowers is likely over Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the north eastern States also.
BEST WINTER
This is the one of the most testing times to read weather and the need for accurate forecasts, especially with regard to fluctuations in temperature, cannot be gainsaid, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, leading operational forecaster and Adviser to the Department of Science and Technology.
The 2009-10 winter has been one of the best with adequate rainfall and low temperatures which have stood the rabi wheat crop in great stead, Dr Gupta told Business Line.
Given this context, it is not outlandish to expect a bumper crop this year, but with a caveat. And this has reference to only the uptrend in temperature during the most vulnerable period, as emerges now, when the crop is reaching maturity.
The situation is made trickier by the fact that the harvest festival of ‘Holi' falls on March 1 this year, much earlier than usual. Normally, ‘Holi' falls in late March to coincide with the time around which harvesting operations begin.
But this time round, farmers would need to wait almost a month post-Holi for harvesting to begin. By then, the temperature regime would have made a decisive turn to inch up marking the turn from spring to summer, Dr Gupta said.
The maximum temperature is expected to start looking up as early as from this Friday February 26. A rise in maximum temperature is often mistaken to mean the advent of summer.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
The transition to summer is complete only when the minimum temperatures too starts rising, which would be around March 1 this season, the day of Holi, Dr Gupta said. This would leave the crop to the mercy of the elements for at least a month.
The maximum temperature level over the plains of northwest India is currently in the range of 27-28 deg Celsius. The upper threshold limit is 30-35 deg Celsius beyond which the mercury would have a debilitating impact on the crop.
Only western disturbances, one of which is currently holding sway, can help moderate the climes in the north and northwest. But forecasts indicate no big system arriving into the northwest until March 1 to bring along cloudiness and rains. Some weak systems are expected to check in during this phase but their influence would be limited to within the hilly regions of the northwest – that is western Himalayas.
WESTERLY SYSTEMS
While a western disturbance is currently in the final stages of its activity over the western Himalayas, a fresh one is approaching and will start impacting the region from Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
(vinson@thehindu.co.in)
Minimum temperatures are above normal by 2-5 deg Celsius over parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, north Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures too are above normal over south Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and the north eastern States.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir during next two days and may increase thereafter. Isolated to scattered rain or snow is also likely over Himachal Pradesh from Thursday and over Uttarakhand from Friday.
Isolated light rain or thundershowers is likely over Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the north eastern States also.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Monsoon likely to be normal, says US forecaster
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University is the latest forecasting agency to affirm enhanced probability for a largely ‘normal' monsoon for India this year.
But the initial phase leading up to the onset phase and advancement (April-May-June) is loaded with probability for below normal precipitation for eastern India – covering north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal.
BEYOND BORDER
While north-east India could likely see normal onset and advancement conditions, probability for below normal precipitation is indicated for neighbouring countries of Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and parts of south and west China.
Northern half of Pakistan is tipped to receive excess showers during this phase, while ‘drought masking' is applicable for the southern half, the IRI outlook suggested.
May-June-July that coincides with advancement and maturity of the monsoon is projected to return normal rainfall figures for entire India (including east India that may have gone under-fed until then) and Pakistan.
But the enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation would be still valid for Bangladesh-Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand.
The fully mature monsoon during June-July-August is once again shown to be normal over India, Pakistan, entire South-East Asia and China.
This is the phase that scientists at the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) have identified with the dying of the prevailing El Nino conditions over central Pacific and likely return of the reverse phenomenon of La Nina.
A La Nina has been traditionally considered to favour a concurrent Indian monsoon, though not with direct cause-effect relationship.
The RIGC has said in updated forecast that it expects to see a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole at work during September-October-November.
PENINSULAR HEATING
Like La Nina, a positive IOD is also known to rub off positively on the Indian monsoon, though the timing would be too late for this year.
In positive IOD conditions, warm temperature anomalies shift to western Indian Ocean, helping catalyse the favourable impact on monsoon for mainland India, especially the central and western parts.
As for expected temperature regime for the country, the IRI said that the odds have stacked up to signal enhanced probability for some of the worst heating to get concentrated over peninsular India during March-April-May and April-May-June.
This region would have to wait until after the monsoon has entrenched its presence in May-June-July to get some reprieve, the IRI forecasts indicate. There is up to 70 per cent probability that this region, along with most of the west coast, would be subjected to maximum heating (to a level variously higher than even in the northwest) during the two back-to-back quarters.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has gone on record saying that the threat from El Nino, which contributed to the worst monsoon rains in India in nearly four decades last year, has subsided, raising hopes of ‘normal' monsoon rains this year.
WESTERN DISTURBANCES
On Sunday, the IMD said that it expected back-to-back western disturbances to drift into the northwest during this week from across the border signalling snow and rains for the hilly regions and adjoining respectively.
The first in the series is forecast to affect northwest India on Monday and Tuesday while the follow-up system is tipped to enter the region from Thursday even as northwesterly to westerly winds have gathered pace over the plains. Minimum temperatures are expected to look up during the arrival phase of the systems.
An IMD outlook for the next few days said that isolated rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday while it would be and scattered on the next two days. Isolated to scattered rain and snow has been indicated for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as well on Monday and Tuesday. Isolated rain or thundershowers might occur over plains of northwest India.
But the initial phase leading up to the onset phase and advancement (April-May-June) is loaded with probability for below normal precipitation for eastern India – covering north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal.
BEYOND BORDER
While north-east India could likely see normal onset and advancement conditions, probability for below normal precipitation is indicated for neighbouring countries of Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and parts of south and west China.
Northern half of Pakistan is tipped to receive excess showers during this phase, while ‘drought masking' is applicable for the southern half, the IRI outlook suggested.
May-June-July that coincides with advancement and maturity of the monsoon is projected to return normal rainfall figures for entire India (including east India that may have gone under-fed until then) and Pakistan.
But the enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation would be still valid for Bangladesh-Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand.
The fully mature monsoon during June-July-August is once again shown to be normal over India, Pakistan, entire South-East Asia and China.
This is the phase that scientists at the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) have identified with the dying of the prevailing El Nino conditions over central Pacific and likely return of the reverse phenomenon of La Nina.
A La Nina has been traditionally considered to favour a concurrent Indian monsoon, though not with direct cause-effect relationship.
The RIGC has said in updated forecast that it expects to see a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole at work during September-October-November.
PENINSULAR HEATING
Like La Nina, a positive IOD is also known to rub off positively on the Indian monsoon, though the timing would be too late for this year.
In positive IOD conditions, warm temperature anomalies shift to western Indian Ocean, helping catalyse the favourable impact on monsoon for mainland India, especially the central and western parts.
As for expected temperature regime for the country, the IRI said that the odds have stacked up to signal enhanced probability for some of the worst heating to get concentrated over peninsular India during March-April-May and April-May-June.
This region would have to wait until after the monsoon has entrenched its presence in May-June-July to get some reprieve, the IRI forecasts indicate. There is up to 70 per cent probability that this region, along with most of the west coast, would be subjected to maximum heating (to a level variously higher than even in the northwest) during the two back-to-back quarters.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has gone on record saying that the threat from El Nino, which contributed to the worst monsoon rains in India in nearly four decades last year, has subsided, raising hopes of ‘normal' monsoon rains this year.
WESTERN DISTURBANCES
On Sunday, the IMD said that it expected back-to-back western disturbances to drift into the northwest during this week from across the border signalling snow and rains for the hilly regions and adjoining respectively.
The first in the series is forecast to affect northwest India on Monday and Tuesday while the follow-up system is tipped to enter the region from Thursday even as northwesterly to westerly winds have gathered pace over the plains. Minimum temperatures are expected to look up during the arrival phase of the systems.
An IMD outlook for the next few days said that isolated rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday while it would be and scattered on the next two days. Isolated to scattered rain and snow has been indicated for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as well on Monday and Tuesday. Isolated rain or thundershowers might occur over plains of northwest India.
a strong western disturbance is sweeping across Himachal & Utarakhand all night .. http://ping.fm/xE88x
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Isolated showers over North-west Andhra and SOuth-west Orissa till 21-Feb, morning .. http://yfrog.com/1en5ag
Fresh Western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from 25th .. http://ping.fm/m8tPV
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Gelane
Tropical Cyclone Gelane had sustained winds of 125 knots (230 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 150 knots (275 kilometers per hour), according to a report from the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on February 19, 2010. The JTWC reported that Gelane was roughly 315 nautical miles (585 kilometers) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, and was forecast to travel toward the southwest, weakening slightly as it moved.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image on February 19, 2010. Gelane’s spiral arms span hundreds of kilometers over the open ocean.
The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS’ full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.
Friday, February 19, 2010
The magnitude of Haiti's new reality - CNN.com: One month after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake devastated Haiti, the e... http://bit.ly/dl7wF1
Medium & High cloud cover over Tamilnadu, and central Band of cloud from Arabian sea still exists .. http://ping.fm/7yjtC
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Excess rainfall has been indicated for northwest India as well as northern parts of the Tamil Nadu coast .. http://bit.ly/cXcU07
Most parts of the country going without any appreciable rain event through March-April-May .. http://bit.ly/cXcU07
Japanese model retains outlook for late-season La Nina
Updated forecasts from the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change retained the outlook for the current El Nino with a major warming in the central Pacific to decay quickly and a La Nina springing up to coincide with a late Indian summer.
Substantiating the likely favourable impact on the year 2010 monsoon, it has forecast the probability of normal to excess precipitation for most parts of the country during June-July-August except parts of the west coast (south Gujarat and adjoining Mumbai).
A probability for excess rainfall has been indicated for northwest India as well as northern parts of the Tamil Nadu coast. The entire northwest was badly let down by the previous monsoon, a trend which has continued till date through the northern hemisphere winter.
But the RIGS has warned of the possibility of most parts of the country going without any appreciable rain event through March-April-May. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sought to disagree with this, indicating that central India might receive reasonable precipitation during April-May-June.
The Coupled Forecast System (CFS) model of the US National Weather Services/National Centres for Environmental Prediction too has indicated that June-July-August (featuring an active Bay of Bengal) and July-August-September might return decent rain figures for the country.
The CFS model begged to differ with the ECMWF saying that April-May-June could be bad at least over the peninsula, though likely better in the north and northwest. The CFS projections are valid as on February 15, based on initial conditions obtaining from February 5 to 14.
IOD PROSPECTS
The RIGS has also held out the probability that a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) might get triggered during September-October-November. A positive IOD is marked by anomalous warming and associated clouding over western Indian Ocean and has been known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon. Basin-wide warming is indicated until September, which is considered ‘impact-neutral' for regional weather.
Meanwhile, the western Himalayas continued to be under the grip of western disturbance activity while confluence of winds was noticed over central and adjoining east India during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Both meteorological features are capable of setting off weather regionally, ranging from snow to scattered rains. An enabling trough (or wind discontinuity) over land lay extended from Vidarbha to southeast Arabian Sea through Telangana, interior Karnataka and Kerala.
The northwesterly to westerly winds over Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining central India are tipped to further gain in strength over the next few days.
An IMD outlook said that scattered rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during next 24 hours. Isolated rain or snow would occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during the next two days.
Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over central and adjoining east India and the North-Eastern States, too.
There would be no significant change in minimum temperatures over northwest India during the next 24 hours but they may take a dip thereafter. Similarly, maximum temperatures are expected to hold for the time being, but may rise after two days.
The IMD saw a fresh western disturbance approaching the northwest border and causing scattered precipitation over western Himalayan region from the weekend.
Substantiating the likely favourable impact on the year 2010 monsoon, it has forecast the probability of normal to excess precipitation for most parts of the country during June-July-August except parts of the west coast (south Gujarat and adjoining Mumbai).
A probability for excess rainfall has been indicated for northwest India as well as northern parts of the Tamil Nadu coast. The entire northwest was badly let down by the previous monsoon, a trend which has continued till date through the northern hemisphere winter.
But the RIGS has warned of the possibility of most parts of the country going without any appreciable rain event through March-April-May. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sought to disagree with this, indicating that central India might receive reasonable precipitation during April-May-June.
The Coupled Forecast System (CFS) model of the US National Weather Services/National Centres for Environmental Prediction too has indicated that June-July-August (featuring an active Bay of Bengal) and July-August-September might return decent rain figures for the country.
The CFS model begged to differ with the ECMWF saying that April-May-June could be bad at least over the peninsula, though likely better in the north and northwest. The CFS projections are valid as on February 15, based on initial conditions obtaining from February 5 to 14.
IOD PROSPECTS
The RIGS has also held out the probability that a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) might get triggered during September-October-November. A positive IOD is marked by anomalous warming and associated clouding over western Indian Ocean and has been known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon. Basin-wide warming is indicated until September, which is considered ‘impact-neutral' for regional weather.
Meanwhile, the western Himalayas continued to be under the grip of western disturbance activity while confluence of winds was noticed over central and adjoining east India during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Both meteorological features are capable of setting off weather regionally, ranging from snow to scattered rains. An enabling trough (or wind discontinuity) over land lay extended from Vidarbha to southeast Arabian Sea through Telangana, interior Karnataka and Kerala.
The northwesterly to westerly winds over Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining central India are tipped to further gain in strength over the next few days.
An IMD outlook said that scattered rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during next 24 hours. Isolated rain or snow would occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during the next two days.
Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over central and adjoining east India and the North-Eastern States, too.
There would be no significant change in minimum temperatures over northwest India during the next 24 hours but they may take a dip thereafter. Similarly, maximum temperatures are expected to hold for the time being, but may rise after two days.
The IMD saw a fresh western disturbance approaching the northwest border and causing scattered precipitation over western Himalayan region from the weekend.
Winter Olympics in Vancouver
In early February 2010, organizers were putting the finishing touches on venues for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver, British Columbia. Two months earlier, on December 6, 2009, the Thematic Mapper Plus on NASA’s Landsat 7 satellite captured a detailed image of the area where the games will be held.
The image on the left provides a view of the area from Vancouver northward to the Whistler skiing village. Areas outlined in yellow delineate close-up views on the right. The top close-up shows venues near the village of Whistler, where Nordic and alpine skiing events will be held. The bottom close-up shows Cypress Mountain, the planned venue for freestyle skiing and snowboarding, among other events.
Throughout the scene, snow blankets the highest peaks, and low-angled sunlight illuminates south-facing slopes while leaving north-facing slopes in shadow. Valleys and lower slopes are lush green. The venues near Whistler appear as patchworks of green forest interrupted by long, thin trails of snowy white. Just north of the city of Vancouver, Cypress Mountain also holds snowy ski trails, but overall has far less snow.
After unusually warm conditions in January 2010, snow remained scarce on Cypress Mountain. The Los Angeles Times reported that snow was being trucked to Cypress Mountain from higher elevations, and Vancouver Now reported that organizers had placed tubes filled with dry ice on courses to keep surrounding snow from breaking down. A surprise snowstorm struck on February 10, just two days before the games opened, boosting the snowpack. The snowstorm did not, however, change the short-term forecast for rain.
Coronal Mass Ejection in late January 2010
Fiery arcs rise above an active region on the surface of the Sun in this series of images taken by the STEREO (Behind) spacecraft on January 27, 2010. The arcs are plasma, superheated matter made up of moving charged particles (electrons and ions). Just as iron filings arc from one end of a magnet to another, the plasma is sliding in an arc along magnetic field lines. In a movie of STEREO observations made between January 26 and January 29, the dynamic streams were initially just over the Sun’s edge and readily spotted as the Sun rotated them more into view.
About mid-way through the movie clip, a small coronal mass ejection (a stream of charged particles from the Sun) shoots out and into space at about a million miles per hour, carrying some magnetic field with it. The top image shows the beginning of the coronal mass ejection, while the lower image shows the solar matter leaving the Sun’s corona. Most coronal mass ejections are more bulbous and wide: this one is quite narrow and contained. Nonetheless, NASA solar scientists agree that its speed and characteristics suggest that it was indeed a non-typical coronal mass ejection.
A coronal mass ejection can cause problems on Earth. The energetic particles can damage satellites, cause communication and navigation problems in airplanes, and disrupt electrical power in homes and businesses. To understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, NASA has 17 missions, including STEREO, observing the Sun. On February 11, 2010, the fleet grew by one when NASA launched its most advanced solar spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, to study the causes of solar variability and its impacts on Earth.
The Solar Dynamics Observatory will take detailed images of the Sun every 0.75 seconds and send 1.5 terabytes of data—the equivalent of 380 full-length movies—back to Earth every day. These observations will help scientists understand how the Sun’s magnetic field is generated and structured, and how the energy in the magnetic field is released into space as solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in solar irradiance.
About mid-way through the movie clip, a small coronal mass ejection (a stream of charged particles from the Sun) shoots out and into space at about a million miles per hour, carrying some magnetic field with it. The top image shows the beginning of the coronal mass ejection, while the lower image shows the solar matter leaving the Sun’s corona. Most coronal mass ejections are more bulbous and wide: this one is quite narrow and contained. Nonetheless, NASA solar scientists agree that its speed and characteristics suggest that it was indeed a non-typical coronal mass ejection.
A coronal mass ejection can cause problems on Earth. The energetic particles can damage satellites, cause communication and navigation problems in airplanes, and disrupt electrical power in homes and businesses. To understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, NASA has 17 missions, including STEREO, observing the Sun. On February 11, 2010, the fleet grew by one when NASA launched its most advanced solar spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, to study the causes of solar variability and its impacts on Earth.
The Solar Dynamics Observatory will take detailed images of the Sun every 0.75 seconds and send 1.5 terabytes of data—the equivalent of 380 full-length movies—back to Earth every day. These observations will help scientists understand how the Sun’s magnetic field is generated and structured, and how the energy in the magnetic field is released into space as solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in solar irradiance.
Devils Lake
taken on 11-Aug-1984
taken on 1-Sep-2009
North Dakota’s Devils Lake occupies a basin within a basin. The surrounding basin is that of Red River, but because Devils Lake’s own basin is closed, the lake must reach a sufficient water level before the water travels elsewhere. At a water level of 1,447 feet (441 meters) above sea level, Devils Lake spills into neighboring Stump Lake. At a height of 1,459 feet (445 meters) above sea level, both lakes spill into a Red River tributary, the Sheyenne River. Geologists suspect that the overflow into the Sheyenne has occurred at least twice in the last 4,000 years. In the 1990s, Devils Lake began a fresh round of flooding.
The Thematic Mapper on NASA’s Landsat 5 satellite captured these true-color images on August 11, 1984 (top), and September 1, 2009 (bottom). The graph below the images tracks the surface elevation of Devils Lake from the late nineteenth through the early twenty-first centuries. By the late 1990s, Devils Lake rose high enough to begin flowing into Stump Lake. The change in water level over 25 years is obvious in these images. Compared to the image from 1984, the image from 2009 shows that Devils Lake has expanded dramatically, and Stump Lake has grown from a small sliver to a large, curving water body.
Devils Lake’s rising waters have caused considerable grief to the nearby community. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the flooding has destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses, and flooded thousands of acres of farmland. According to a fact sheet from the North Dakota State Water Commission, state and federal government flood-mitigation expenditures have topped more than $450 million, and included moving roads, railways, and power lines, and building dikes. Although an inlet between Devils Lake and the Missouri River system might mitigate flooding, the risk of invasive species led to the prohibition of such an inlet in the Dakota Water Resources Act of 2001. Despite the frustrations it causes local residents, Devils Lake is home to a fishery and multiple species of migratory waterfowl.
Heavy Rains in Central Australia
This analysis is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.
http://ping.fm/m9Smq .. Sat.shot shows, that cloud band across central India is still there at low levels.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
RT @CricketLatest: Cricket-Rain delays start of play in India-South Africa test (Reuters UK) http://bit.ly/9K6pg8
Mild showers has occurred almost all thru the band of clouds pushing across central India from Arabian sea .. http://yfrog.com/4ahrfg
South-westerly push from Arabian sea is pushing some showers into central India .. http://ping.fm/BIyRV
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
http://yfrog.com/9s9gcj .. Sat. shot shows, a band of Showery activity over Chatisgarh, Jharkand, West Bengal and SW-Madhya pradesh.
Monday, February 15, 2010
RT @TrueloveTomorro: earthquake that killd so many also demolished Haiti's galleries & destroyed thousands of paintings http://bit.ly/318J3
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Saturday, February 13, 2010
About the present activity in SW Bay..!!! ???
Refer weather in SW Bay near Srilanka. Some say it is due to early transitional of wind to SW. Some fear that it is a part of MJO i.e system or cloud mass moving predominately towards EAST. MJO may be considered as global phenomenal occurring especially in Indian Ocean and Pacific. There were instances where MJO has given copious unseasonal rainfall in the California region in US. Similarly it may give [sometimes in February]copious rainfall in TN also.
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
RT @DNA >> Rains bring down temperature in Delhi - Heavy rain accompanied by lightning and hailstones had la... http://ow.ly/16zjOv
http://ping.fm/gJqQM .. Latest sat. shot shows that North-North-west has cleared up... And will remain the same for 48hrs.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Showers might creep-up into South-east coastal and South-tip of Tamilnadu in next 24 hrs .. http://ping.fm/0hzpY
Latest sat. shot shows that still South-west Bay near eastern srilanka is ACTIVE .. http://ping.fm/eUOiP
Mystery fever that baffled Madurai and Tirunelveli, is dengue plus Chikungunya .. http://bit.ly/clm9sa
ECMWF seems to suggest another active western disturbance rolls into the north-west by February 16.. http://bit.ly/cHeBYb
Showery weather for north-west may continue
Close on the heels of an active western disturbance that brought significant weather in the form of long-overdue rains and snow for the western Himalayas and since gone, a follow-up system has started impacting the region.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Thursday that the system is endowed with required firepower to hold on and extend influence into the plains of the northwest over the next five days. Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of the western Himalayas.
western disturbance
But the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seems to suggest this could be only an interregnum before another active western disturbance rolls into the north-west by February 16 (Tuesday).
Forecast charts show a low-pressure area embedded in the westerlies sitting over Afghanistan and adjoining north-west Pakistan two days ahead of this. The eastward bound westerly flows are shown to ferry in the ‘low' to the Pakistan-India border on the north-west in the form of a closed circulation.
The embedded system may lose some of its intensity after likely being made to shed some moisture load over the North West Frontier province and adjoining Punjab in Pakistan. But the ‘closed circulation' structure is more or less shown to be in tact on entering India's north-west, indicating residual moisture carry.
The depth and magnitude, as forecast, might enable the system to mop up moisture from the north Arabian Sea and sprinkle it as scattered to isolated rain over the plains. This is the scenario that the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), too, sees as likely to emerge.
The NCEP outlook for February 11 to 18 is of the view that widespread snowfall and scattered to moderate rains or may occur over the hills and plains of the north-west, propagating in east-southeast direction towards east and east-central India and further into parts of the peninsula.
INTENSITY may rise
An IMD outlook until Sunday spoke about the possibility of isolated rain/snow over western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours, which would increase in intensity thereafter. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
No significant change is seen in maximum and minimum temperatures over northwest India during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over parts of central and east India during the next two days.
Forecast until Tuesday said isolated to scattered light to moderate rain/snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over the north-eastern States also.
Parts of southern peninsula would, meanwhile, be brought under showery weather (February 11 to 18) propagating from south of Sri Lanka and across adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean. Satellite pictures on Thursday revealed intense clouding over equatorial Indian Ocean spreading thin over Sri Lanka and southern Indian peninsula.
RAINS FOR SOUTH
The IMD traced a trough of low pressure over the Comorin area extending to adjoining south coastal Tamil Nadu. A cyclonic circulation lay parked over Madhya Maharashtra and neighbourhood.
An outlook by the Regional Meteorology Centre, Chennai, for the next two days said that isolated light rain may occur over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. This would be the combined result of interaction of the westerlies from the west and north-west of the country with easterlies to northeasterlies from the Bay of Bengal. Sea-surface temperatures were moderately high over coastal Arabian Sea and southwest Bay of Bengal, which would be able to support convection and cloud building. In fact, convective clouds were traced to over the Comorin area on Thursday while low to medium clouds (partly cloudy) hung over central peninsular India.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Thursday that the system is endowed with required firepower to hold on and extend influence into the plains of the northwest over the next five days. Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of the western Himalayas.
western disturbance
But the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seems to suggest this could be only an interregnum before another active western disturbance rolls into the north-west by February 16 (Tuesday).
Forecast charts show a low-pressure area embedded in the westerlies sitting over Afghanistan and adjoining north-west Pakistan two days ahead of this. The eastward bound westerly flows are shown to ferry in the ‘low' to the Pakistan-India border on the north-west in the form of a closed circulation.
The embedded system may lose some of its intensity after likely being made to shed some moisture load over the North West Frontier province and adjoining Punjab in Pakistan. But the ‘closed circulation' structure is more or less shown to be in tact on entering India's north-west, indicating residual moisture carry.
The depth and magnitude, as forecast, might enable the system to mop up moisture from the north Arabian Sea and sprinkle it as scattered to isolated rain over the plains. This is the scenario that the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), too, sees as likely to emerge.
The NCEP outlook for February 11 to 18 is of the view that widespread snowfall and scattered to moderate rains or may occur over the hills and plains of the north-west, propagating in east-southeast direction towards east and east-central India and further into parts of the peninsula.
INTENSITY may rise
An IMD outlook until Sunday spoke about the possibility of isolated rain/snow over western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours, which would increase in intensity thereafter. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
No significant change is seen in maximum and minimum temperatures over northwest India during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over parts of central and east India during the next two days.
Forecast until Tuesday said isolated to scattered light to moderate rain/snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over the north-eastern States also.
Parts of southern peninsula would, meanwhile, be brought under showery weather (February 11 to 18) propagating from south of Sri Lanka and across adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean. Satellite pictures on Thursday revealed intense clouding over equatorial Indian Ocean spreading thin over Sri Lanka and southern Indian peninsula.
RAINS FOR SOUTH
The IMD traced a trough of low pressure over the Comorin area extending to adjoining south coastal Tamil Nadu. A cyclonic circulation lay parked over Madhya Maharashtra and neighbourhood.
An outlook by the Regional Meteorology Centre, Chennai, for the next two days said that isolated light rain may occur over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. This would be the combined result of interaction of the westerlies from the west and north-west of the country with easterlies to northeasterlies from the Bay of Bengal. Sea-surface temperatures were moderately high over coastal Arabian Sea and southwest Bay of Bengal, which would be able to support convection and cloud building. In fact, convective clouds were traced to over the Comorin area on Thursday while low to medium clouds (partly cloudy) hung over central peninsular India.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Fresh western disturbance coming ...
The active western disturbance that dominated the weather over the western Himalayas and the adjoining north-west India over the last two days is in the process of moving away to the east-north-east and out of the country.
But the arctic air and moisture brought in still lingers over the hills and plains and is expected to interact with easterly to south-easterly winds to cause precipitation over east and east-central India for the next few days.
‘LOW' ACROSS BORDER
A low-pressure area thrown up by westerly flows over central Pakistan and neighbourhood upstream may have become less marked but associated cyclonic circulation lay over north Pakistan. This would be able to rally additional moisture around itself and fling it across to northwest India.
An outlook by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suggested that northerly rains could even seep down beyond central India into the peninsula. South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and even north interior Karnataka could be impacted in this manner.
The weather would be further boosted by follow-up western disturbances expected to drift in this Friday and by mid-week next week, adding to the supply of moisture over the hills but less so over the plains. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), too, agrees with this outlook.
This is likely to happen around the time when some sporadic weather is kicked up by the passage to the east of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave just to the south of Sri Lanka. This periodical wave is known to set up clouds and trigger precipitation, some of which is forecast to impact extreme southern peninsula later this week and into the next.
MERCURY FALLS
Meanwhile, during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, minimum temperatures fell by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over many parts of north-west India and by 4 to 8 deg Celsius over Gujarat as the active western disturbance moved away making the way clear for colder northwesterlies.
The minima (night temperatures) were below normal by 2 to 4 deg Celsius also over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat. But they were above normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over east India and Assam and Meghalaya ahead of the passage of the western disturbance over these areas.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has occurred over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Uttar Pradesh until Wednesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
Satellite imagery showed low to medium clouds (partly cloudy) over parts of western Himalayan region, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Arunachal Pradesh.
Forecast valid until Saturday said that isolated rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days and increase thereafter as a fresh western disturbance makes its presence felt. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
No significant change is expected in minimum temperatures over northwest India. But the maximum temperatures may inch up slightly over northwest and adjoining central India.
Short to medium range forecast until Monday by the IMD suggested that scattered light to moderate rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers are expected to occur over the North-eastern States.
But the arctic air and moisture brought in still lingers over the hills and plains and is expected to interact with easterly to south-easterly winds to cause precipitation over east and east-central India for the next few days.
‘LOW' ACROSS BORDER
A low-pressure area thrown up by westerly flows over central Pakistan and neighbourhood upstream may have become less marked but associated cyclonic circulation lay over north Pakistan. This would be able to rally additional moisture around itself and fling it across to northwest India.
An outlook by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suggested that northerly rains could even seep down beyond central India into the peninsula. South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and even north interior Karnataka could be impacted in this manner.
The weather would be further boosted by follow-up western disturbances expected to drift in this Friday and by mid-week next week, adding to the supply of moisture over the hills but less so over the plains. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), too, agrees with this outlook.
This is likely to happen around the time when some sporadic weather is kicked up by the passage to the east of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave just to the south of Sri Lanka. This periodical wave is known to set up clouds and trigger precipitation, some of which is forecast to impact extreme southern peninsula later this week and into the next.
MERCURY FALLS
Meanwhile, during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, minimum temperatures fell by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over many parts of north-west India and by 4 to 8 deg Celsius over Gujarat as the active western disturbance moved away making the way clear for colder northwesterlies.
The minima (night temperatures) were below normal by 2 to 4 deg Celsius also over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat. But they were above normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over east India and Assam and Meghalaya ahead of the passage of the western disturbance over these areas.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has occurred over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Uttar Pradesh until Wednesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
Satellite imagery showed low to medium clouds (partly cloudy) over parts of western Himalayan region, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Arunachal Pradesh.
Forecast valid until Saturday said that isolated rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days and increase thereafter as a fresh western disturbance makes its presence felt. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
No significant change is expected in minimum temperatures over northwest India. But the maximum temperatures may inch up slightly over northwest and adjoining central India.
Short to medium range forecast until Monday by the IMD suggested that scattered light to moderate rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers are expected to occur over the North-eastern States.
Medium showers expected for South Tamilnadu and coastal regions of Gulf of mannar .. http://ping.fm/LuGIq
Latest satellite shot shows a Medium and High cloud cover all over south-south peninsula .. http://ping.fm/P0O3u
Sat. shot shows, A circulation south of Srilanka is causing this heay cloud formation over south tip .. http://ping.fm/A7lNJ
Tropical Cyclone Pat
Tropical Cyclone Pat raged over the Southern Pacific Ocean in early February 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image at 10:10 a.m. February 10, New Zealand time (21:10 February 9, UTC). Pat shows a discernible eye, and extends spiral arms hundreds of kilometers over the open ocean.
At 10:00 p.m. New Zealand time (09:00 UTC) on February 10, 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that Pat was roughly 195 nautical miles (360 kilometers) north of Rarotonga, having traveled toward the south-southwest over the previous several hours. The JTWC reported that Pat was expected to lose intensity as it moved over ocean waters less favorable to cyclone formation.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
A day after SNOW triggered a calamitous avalanche.
A day after it triggered a calamitous avalanche over the western Himalayas, the prevailing active western disturbance continued to bring in widespread rain or snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
Another fresh western disturbance has been forecast to affect the western Himalayas from Thursday with adjoining plains expected to be hit mainly around Saturday.
Scattered rainfall has been reported also from the plains over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
HEAVY FALLS
Among stations recording heavy rainfall (in cm) were Batote and Banihal-13 each; Dharamshala, Bhaderwah and Quazigund-8 each; Bhuntar-7; Katra-6; Pahalgam, Kukernag and Shimla-5 each; and Sundernagar, Srinagar and Kupwara-4 each.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Low and medium clouds (partly cloudy) were witnessed over parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Arunachal Pradesh.
An outlook by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) said that the eastward-bound weather system would bring showers to east, east-central and North-East India during the week ending February 16.
East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, parts of Orissa and Vidarbha, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the entire North-East would be variously affected by the weather system.
Going forward, both the NCEP and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are suggesting the arrival of a fresh but weaker western disturbance around February 16 and 17.
SHOWERS FOR SOUTH
Meanwhile in the South, accentuation of a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is shown by models as touching off some activity over Sri Lanka and extreme southern peninsular India (south Tamil Nadu and Kerala) around this weekend (February 14 and 15). The MJO is a periodical upper level wave travelling east over the Indian Ocean that can amplify weather over ground.
The most active front of the western disturbance has moved east and a warning valid for the next 24 hours said that heavy to very heavy rain or snow would occur at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated hail storm may occur over Jammu division of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Uttar Pradesh.
Widespread rain or snow will occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during next 24 hours and lessen in intensity thereafter.
Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over plains of northwest India during the next 24 hours and decrease thereafter. Minimum (night) temperatures would fall by 3 to 4 degree Celsius as the skies clear up and the warmth brought to bear by the western disturbance taper off.
COLD AIR
Colder northwesterlies filling the plains would cause maximum temperatures (day) also to fall by 3 to 6 degree Celsius over the plains of northwest and adjoining east India over the next two days.
Minimum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 6 degree Celsius over most parts of northwest, west and central India, Bihar and West Bengal. But they were below normal by 2 to 5 degree Celsius over parts of Punjab from where the heavy clouding has apparently cleared out.
Forecast until Sunday said that scattered light to moderate rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
Another fresh western disturbance has been forecast to affect the western Himalayas from Thursday with adjoining plains expected to be hit mainly around Saturday.
Scattered rainfall has been reported also from the plains over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
HEAVY FALLS
Among stations recording heavy rainfall (in cm) were Batote and Banihal-13 each; Dharamshala, Bhaderwah and Quazigund-8 each; Bhuntar-7; Katra-6; Pahalgam, Kukernag and Shimla-5 each; and Sundernagar, Srinagar and Kupwara-4 each.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Low and medium clouds (partly cloudy) were witnessed over parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Arunachal Pradesh.
An outlook by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) said that the eastward-bound weather system would bring showers to east, east-central and North-East India during the week ending February 16.
East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, parts of Orissa and Vidarbha, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the entire North-East would be variously affected by the weather system.
Going forward, both the NCEP and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are suggesting the arrival of a fresh but weaker western disturbance around February 16 and 17.
SHOWERS FOR SOUTH
Meanwhile in the South, accentuation of a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is shown by models as touching off some activity over Sri Lanka and extreme southern peninsular India (south Tamil Nadu and Kerala) around this weekend (February 14 and 15). The MJO is a periodical upper level wave travelling east over the Indian Ocean that can amplify weather over ground.
The most active front of the western disturbance has moved east and a warning valid for the next 24 hours said that heavy to very heavy rain or snow would occur at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated hail storm may occur over Jammu division of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Uttar Pradesh.
Widespread rain or snow will occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during next 24 hours and lessen in intensity thereafter.
Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over plains of northwest India during the next 24 hours and decrease thereafter. Minimum (night) temperatures would fall by 3 to 4 degree Celsius as the skies clear up and the warmth brought to bear by the western disturbance taper off.
COLD AIR
Colder northwesterlies filling the plains would cause maximum temperatures (day) also to fall by 3 to 6 degree Celsius over the plains of northwest and adjoining east India over the next two days.
Minimum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 6 degree Celsius over most parts of northwest, west and central India, Bihar and West Bengal. But they were below normal by 2 to 5 degree Celsius over parts of Punjab from where the heavy clouding has apparently cleared out.
Forecast until Sunday said that scattered light to moderate rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
South Bay along 5th parallel is still active.. continuing for the past 3 days .. http://ping.fm/D2qiS
Fresh avalanche kills jawan in Kashmir, after yesterday's avalanche that killed 17 .. http://bit.ly/bBceqE
Monday, February 08, 2010
http://ping.fm/mAfSz ... An active system in South-Bay along 5th parallel will trace WEST without creating showers for Srilanka as well.
Take a look at latest satellite shot .. Shows a STRONG western disturbance moving in across borders .. http://ping.fm/pfFHz
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Latest sat. shot shows the strong western disturbance is crossing Pakistan borders .. http://ping.fm/227vn
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Cyclone Oli .. expected to weaken as it continued to move south over cooler waters .. http://bit.ly/aDMGBg
Cyclone Oli (update)
Cyclone Oli was a Category 4 storm on February 4, 2010, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image. The powerful storm was moving southeast across the South Pacific over the French Polynesian Islands. Tahiti, the most populous of the islands, is under the outer edge of the storm in the upper right.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Oli had winds of 213 kilometers per hour (132 miles per hour or 115 knots) at 1:40 p.m., local time, when this image was acquired. Forecasters expected the storm to weaken as it continued to move south over cooler waters.
At least 3,400 people were evacuated from Tahiti and nearby islands as Oli approached, reported BBC News. The storm’s strong winds damaged homes and power lines. One person died and several others were injured in the storm, said BBC News.
The highest resolution version of the image is provided above. The image is available in additional resolutions from the MODIS Rapid Response System.
‘active' western disturbance may have already started affecting the western Himalayan region from Friday .. http://bit.ly/c2voDz
Snow, rain forecast over western Himalayan region
The ‘active' western disturbance may have already started affecting the western Himalayan region from Friday, according to an update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This is the most productive westerly system to cross in from the northwest border so far this season.
Rain, snow
Earlier systems had lacked the depth and magnitude to trigger the kind of heavy snow and rain over the hills expected of the incumbent.
Light to moderate rain or snow will occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours and over Uttarakhand from Saturday. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Arunachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
As expected, the hills and plains have seen minimum (night) temperatures shoot up under the cover of low and medium clouds (partial cloud coverage). This phase would later give rise to showers over the plains.
Minimum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat, which provide the gateway for incoming western disturbances.
The minima were lower to the east of the country with east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of Orissa and the northeast seeing the mercury dip lower by 2 to 4 deg Celsius. The lowest minimum of 4.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures were above normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat till such time as the skies stayed clear ahead of the arrival of the active western disturbance. They were below normal over west Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
A further increase in minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 to 4 deg Celsius has been indicated over northwest India during the next two days.
The active western disturbance is expected to start affecting the plains of northwest India from Monday onwards, the IMD said.
Widespread rain
Mainly northwesterly winds prevailed over the Indo-Gangetic plains on Friday.
According to the forecast up to Wednesday, widespread rain or snow with heavy to very heavy falls could occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, while it could be isolated and heavy over Himachal Pradesh. Light to moderate rainfall has been forecast for the plains of northwest India.
The forecast for the week starting Friday by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction suggested that the western disturbance could leave some ‘dry' patches in parts of the plains. These are likely to be east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh apart from parts of Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh.
But heavy snow and precipitation amounting to 600 per cent above normal for this time of the year has been indicated all along the Himalayan region, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
The foothills, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, too, are expected to get precipitation amounting to between 400 to 600 per cent of the normal during the week under reference.
The confluence of northwesterly and east to southeasterly winds is expected to trigger rains over east and east-central India (up to 200 to 300 per cent above the normal for this time of the year).
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has indicated that a follow-up western disturbance of moderate intensity could push into the northwest towards the latter part of next week.
This is the most productive westerly system to cross in from the northwest border so far this season.
Rain, snow
Earlier systems had lacked the depth and magnitude to trigger the kind of heavy snow and rain over the hills expected of the incumbent.
Light to moderate rain or snow will occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours and over Uttarakhand from Saturday. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Arunachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
As expected, the hills and plains have seen minimum (night) temperatures shoot up under the cover of low and medium clouds (partial cloud coverage). This phase would later give rise to showers over the plains.
Minimum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat, which provide the gateway for incoming western disturbances.
The minima were lower to the east of the country with east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of Orissa and the northeast seeing the mercury dip lower by 2 to 4 deg Celsius. The lowest minimum of 4.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures were above normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat till such time as the skies stayed clear ahead of the arrival of the active western disturbance. They were below normal over west Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
A further increase in minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 to 4 deg Celsius has been indicated over northwest India during the next two days.
The active western disturbance is expected to start affecting the plains of northwest India from Monday onwards, the IMD said.
Widespread rain
Mainly northwesterly winds prevailed over the Indo-Gangetic plains on Friday.
According to the forecast up to Wednesday, widespread rain or snow with heavy to very heavy falls could occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, while it could be isolated and heavy over Himachal Pradesh. Light to moderate rainfall has been forecast for the plains of northwest India.
The forecast for the week starting Friday by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction suggested that the western disturbance could leave some ‘dry' patches in parts of the plains. These are likely to be east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh apart from parts of Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh.
But heavy snow and precipitation amounting to 600 per cent above normal for this time of the year has been indicated all along the Himalayan region, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
The foothills, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, too, are expected to get precipitation amounting to between 400 to 600 per cent of the normal during the week under reference.
The confluence of northwesterly and east to southeasterly winds is expected to trigger rains over east and east-central India (up to 200 to 300 per cent above the normal for this time of the year).
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has indicated that a follow-up western disturbance of moderate intensity could push into the northwest towards the latter part of next week.
GFS predicts a GOOD Western Disturbance moving across from North-west from 7-Feb-2010 .. http://yfrog.com/3gadup
Friday, February 05, 2010
Chennai - Historical Weather data for Feb-1984.. http://bit.ly/cDqGYV ... Check out 17-Feb-1984... Got Heavy rainfall.
Tropical Storm Oli
Tropical Cyclone Oli swirled over the South Pacific in early February 2010, some 200 nautical mies (370 kilometers) west-northwest of Bora Bora. At 15:00 UTC February 3 (4:00 a.m. February 4 in New Zeland), the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Oli had maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour). The JTWC forecast that the storm would strengthen over the next 48 hours.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image at 21:00 UTC February 2 (10:00 a.m. February 3 in New Zeland). Storm clouds fill most of this scene. Islands in the French Polynesian island chain appear in the lower right quadrant of the image.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Fami
Tropical Cyclone Fami hovered over Madagascar and the Mozambique Channel on February 2, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image the same day.
On February 2, 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that Fami was roughly 150 nautical miles (275 kilometers) southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. With maximum sustained winds of 30 knots (55 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 40 knots (75 kilometers per hour), Fami was dissipating.
By Sunday the Western Disturbance will be over most of North India and slowly moving south-east .. http://yfrog.com/37qg0p
Another clear India with some signs of WESTERN disturbance moving in from North-west .. http://ping.fm/nOxMF
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
During the week ending February 18, the US NCEP has indicated excess rain over east and northeast India .. http://bit.ly/acTH0Z
Coming WD could possibly be the first significant weather generating system to cross in from the international border.. http://bit.ly/acTH0Z
Snow, rain may ‘cream' Jammu and Kashmir from Friday
International weather models indicate that an incoming western disturbance would start impacting northwest Jammu and Kashmir as early as Friday in the form of snow and rains.
This could possibly be the first significant weather generating system to cross in from the international border since the dawn of the new year and promises scattered rainfall of moderate strength over the western Himalayas and the adjoining plains.
According to predictions by the Michigan Weather System, snow and rains would start ‘creaming' the head of Jammu and Kashmir from Friday before seeping further east and southeast into Uttarkhand, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab.
The bulk of the weather is expected to unravel over the region during the three days early next week, according to consensus projections. An isolated blow-up of rains is indicated over northwest Jammu and Kashmir during this phase.
The three-month mean rainfall outlook of the Japanese Meteorological Agency dated January 16 found no threat of any deficient rainfall over northwest India.
While the rains are expected to be normal over northwest India, it is likely to be in excess over east and northeast India. Associated cloud cover would cause the temperature to stay accordingly high over north, northwest and east India, the forecast said.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the rains would be normal for northwest India during February-March-April with excess quantum being forecast for north Gujarat, Konkan, west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
MERCURY UP
During the week ending February 18, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has indicated excess rain over east and northeast India, including east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and the northeast.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that minimum temperatures had streaked to above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, north Konkan and East Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. The lowest minimum of 2.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures too were above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Saurashtra, Kutch, northeast Madhya Pradesh, southwest Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
Northwesterly winds were prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains. The IMD indicated strengthening of the winds from Wednesday onwards.
But they would change direction to being westerly to southwesterly to coincide with the arrival phase of the western disturbance. No significant change in maximum and minimum temperatures is being forecast ahead of the arrival of the system.
This could possibly be the first significant weather generating system to cross in from the international border since the dawn of the new year and promises scattered rainfall of moderate strength over the western Himalayas and the adjoining plains.
According to predictions by the Michigan Weather System, snow and rains would start ‘creaming' the head of Jammu and Kashmir from Friday before seeping further east and southeast into Uttarkhand, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab.
The bulk of the weather is expected to unravel over the region during the three days early next week, according to consensus projections. An isolated blow-up of rains is indicated over northwest Jammu and Kashmir during this phase.
The three-month mean rainfall outlook of the Japanese Meteorological Agency dated January 16 found no threat of any deficient rainfall over northwest India.
While the rains are expected to be normal over northwest India, it is likely to be in excess over east and northeast India. Associated cloud cover would cause the temperature to stay accordingly high over north, northwest and east India, the forecast said.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the rains would be normal for northwest India during February-March-April with excess quantum being forecast for north Gujarat, Konkan, west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
MERCURY UP
During the week ending February 18, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has indicated excess rain over east and northeast India, including east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and the northeast.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that minimum temperatures had streaked to above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, north Konkan and East Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. The lowest minimum of 2.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures too were above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Saurashtra, Kutch, northeast Madhya Pradesh, southwest Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
Northwesterly winds were prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains. The IMD indicated strengthening of the winds from Wednesday onwards.
But they would change direction to being westerly to southwesterly to coincide with the arrival phase of the western disturbance. No significant change in maximum and minimum temperatures is being forecast ahead of the arrival of the system.
Soufriere Hills Volcano Continues Activity
Ash routinely clouds the Caribbean skies as Soufrière Hills volcano continued its activity. For the past several weeks the Joint Air Force & Army Weather Information Network has issued multiple ash advisories every day for the West Indies. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory attributes ash emissions to the growth of Soufrière Hills’s lava dome accompanied by pyroclastic flows, some of which are reaching the ocean. This natural-color satellite image shows an ash cloud swirling around Montserrat. The image was acquired on January 31, 2010 by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite.
A major western disturbance for North & north-west India is on cards after 5-Feb .. http://yfrog.com/33sm9p
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Western Disturbance for Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, north Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana .. http://bit.ly/bWZSkM
Fresh westerly system to enter north-west by weekend
India Meteorological Department (IMD) too has joined the lookout for a fresh western disturbance crossing in from the northwest border from the weekend.
International models are of the view that the system would progressively cause snow and precipitation over the western Himalayas with some spill-over impact indicated for the adjoining plains.
DIRECT IMPACT
Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, parts of north Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana are expected to get directly impacted thus during the week ending February 8, according to the precipitation forecast of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
The showery weather may extend further in area during the following week (February 9 to 17) even as an easterly wave has been shown to impact the extreme south peninsula (south Kerala and Tamil Nadu).
Meanwhile, the NCEP ensemble forecast for 15 days has indicated that the three days starting February 7 would witness most of the weather over north and northwest India.
A second episode of showery weather has been indicated on February 12 and 13, tapering off to the east over the next two days, according to the ensemble forecast.
An isolated incidence of enhanced weather activity is indicated for east India – around Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and east Madhya Pradesh during the period.
There is already a forecast for increasing cloud cover over northwest and adjoining central India from mid-February. This would mean spotty shower episodes and elevated night temperatures.
MERCURY LOWER
During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, minimum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over many parts of east and peninsular India and parts of northeast India.
They were above normal over parts of Gujarat, central and northwest India while being near normal over remaining parts of the country.
Day temperatures were above normal over Himachal Pradesh and parts of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
Northwesterly winds have been prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains in lower levels during this period. They are forecast to strengthen further from Wednesday ahead of the arrival of the fresh western disturbance.
The IMD did not see any significant change in maximum and minimum temperatures over northwest and adjoining central India during the next three days.
International models are of the view that the system would progressively cause snow and precipitation over the western Himalayas with some spill-over impact indicated for the adjoining plains.
DIRECT IMPACT
Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, parts of north Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana are expected to get directly impacted thus during the week ending February 8, according to the precipitation forecast of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
The showery weather may extend further in area during the following week (February 9 to 17) even as an easterly wave has been shown to impact the extreme south peninsula (south Kerala and Tamil Nadu).
Meanwhile, the NCEP ensemble forecast for 15 days has indicated that the three days starting February 7 would witness most of the weather over north and northwest India.
A second episode of showery weather has been indicated on February 12 and 13, tapering off to the east over the next two days, according to the ensemble forecast.
An isolated incidence of enhanced weather activity is indicated for east India – around Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and east Madhya Pradesh during the period.
There is already a forecast for increasing cloud cover over northwest and adjoining central India from mid-February. This would mean spotty shower episodes and elevated night temperatures.
MERCURY LOWER
During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, minimum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over many parts of east and peninsular India and parts of northeast India.
They were above normal over parts of Gujarat, central and northwest India while being near normal over remaining parts of the country.
Day temperatures were above normal over Himachal Pradesh and parts of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
Northwesterly winds have been prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains in lower levels during this period. They are forecast to strengthen further from Wednesday ahead of the arrival of the fresh western disturbance.
The IMD did not see any significant change in maximum and minimum temperatures over northwest and adjoining central India during the next three days.
Monday, February 01, 2010
http://ping.fm/hgkeD ... Scattered shower possibility remains for South Tamilnadu till 4-Feb-10 and Heavy showers for Srilanka to continue
South Coastal Tamilnadu might get some odd scattered showers before Morning of 2-Feb-10 .. http://ping.fm/vHwY1
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