Snow, rain may ‘cream' Jammu and Kashmir from Friday

International weather models indicate that an incoming western disturbance would start impacting northwest Jammu and Kashmir as early as Friday in the form of snow and rains.

This could possibly be the first significant weather generating system to cross in from the international border since the dawn of the new year and promises scattered rainfall of moderate strength over the western Himalayas and the adjoining plains.

According to predictions by the Michigan Weather System, snow and rains would start ‘creaming' the head of Jammu and Kashmir from Friday before seeping further east and southeast into Uttarkhand, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab.

The bulk of the weather is expected to unravel over the region during the three days early next week, according to consensus projections. An isolated blow-up of rains is indicated over northwest Jammu and Kashmir during this phase.

The three-month mean rainfall outlook of the Japanese Meteorological Agency dated January 16 found no threat of any deficient rainfall over northwest India.

While the rains are expected to be normal over northwest India, it is likely to be in excess over east and northeast India. Associated cloud cover would cause the temperature to stay accordingly high over north, northwest and east India, the forecast said.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the rains would be normal for northwest India during February-March-April with excess quantum being forecast for north Gujarat, Konkan, west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

MERCURY UP

During the week ending February 18, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has indicated excess rain over east and northeast India, including east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and the northeast.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that minimum temperatures had streaked to above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, north Konkan and East Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. The lowest minimum of 2.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.

Maximum temperatures too were above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Saurashtra, Kutch, northeast Madhya Pradesh, southwest Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

Northwesterly winds were prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains. The IMD indicated strengthening of the winds from Wednesday onwards.

But they would change direction to being westerly to southwesterly to coincide with the arrival phase of the western disturbance. No significant change in maximum and minimum temperatures is being forecast ahead of the arrival of the system.