Updated forecasts from the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change retained the outlook for the current El Nino with a major warming in the central Pacific to decay quickly and a La Nina springing up to coincide with a late Indian summer.
Substantiating the likely favourable impact on the year 2010 monsoon, it has forecast the probability of normal to excess precipitation for most parts of the country during June-July-August except parts of the west coast (south Gujarat and adjoining Mumbai).
A probability for excess rainfall has been indicated for northwest India as well as northern parts of the Tamil Nadu coast. The entire northwest was badly let down by the previous monsoon, a trend which has continued till date through the northern hemisphere winter.
But the RIGS has warned of the possibility of most parts of the country going without any appreciable rain event through March-April-May. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sought to disagree with this, indicating that central India might receive reasonable precipitation during April-May-June.
The Coupled Forecast System (CFS) model of the US National Weather Services/National Centres for Environmental Prediction too has indicated that June-July-August (featuring an active Bay of Bengal) and July-August-September might return decent rain figures for the country.
The CFS model begged to differ with the ECMWF saying that April-May-June could be bad at least over the peninsula, though likely better in the north and northwest. The CFS projections are valid as on February 15, based on initial conditions obtaining from February 5 to 14.
IOD PROSPECTS
The RIGS has also held out the probability that a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) might get triggered during September-October-November. A positive IOD is marked by anomalous warming and associated clouding over western Indian Ocean and has been known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon. Basin-wide warming is indicated until September, which is considered ‘impact-neutral' for regional weather.
Meanwhile, the western Himalayas continued to be under the grip of western disturbance activity while confluence of winds was noticed over central and adjoining east India during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Both meteorological features are capable of setting off weather regionally, ranging from snow to scattered rains. An enabling trough (or wind discontinuity) over land lay extended from Vidarbha to southeast Arabian Sea through Telangana, interior Karnataka and Kerala.
The northwesterly to westerly winds over Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining central India are tipped to further gain in strength over the next few days.
An IMD outlook said that scattered rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during next 24 hours. Isolated rain or snow would occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during the next two days.
Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over central and adjoining east India and the North-Eastern States, too.
There would be no significant change in minimum temperatures over northwest India during the next 24 hours but they may take a dip thereafter. Similarly, maximum temperatures are expected to hold for the time being, but may rise after two days.
The IMD saw a fresh western disturbance approaching the northwest border and causing scattered precipitation over western Himalayan region from the weekend.
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