Isolated to scattered shower activity has been forecast to continue over the southern peninsula during this week amid indications that northwest India may be bracing to receive first meaningful spell during the next.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Sunday that the previous day's cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal had since shifted west to the southwest Bay closer to the Tami Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.
This cyclonic circulation over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal in the lower level is likely to move west-northwestwards, according to the IMD.
This outlook is being shared by at least two international models, the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Weather Forecast Centre of the Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.
The Canadian Met Centre is of the view that the cyclonic circulation to the southeast of Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu would track west-northwest to reach closer to coastal Tamil Nadu during December 7 to 12.
According to Mr Hsiao-Chung Tsai and Mr Kuo-Chen Lu of the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau, the southwest Bay of Bengal would be active with unremitting convection during the next week.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts says that a cyclonic circulation would be active over the tip of the peninsula on four days from December 10. South Kerala and south Tamil Nadu cold receive resultant rains for as many days.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is of the view that rains could be expected over Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu during the week beginning Sunday. Parts of northwest India would also witness light to moderate rains during this period.
The IMD attributes the likely rains from an easterly wave being ignited by the convective activity over southwest and adjoining south-central Bay of Bengal. The rains are shown to spread over the entire southern peninsula.
During the week that follows (December 14-22), northwest India could be the surprise beneficiary of a burst of rainfall from western disturbance activity, according to the US forecaster. Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan stand to make gains from the rain.
Meanwhile, the IMD updates said that the cool northwesterly winds would continue to prevail over Indo-Gangetic plains over the next week. But, subsequently, the intensity of the winds would increase.
Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and south Arabian Sea. Low to medium-high clouds were seen over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh and south peninsular India.
Forecast up to Tuesday spoke about possibility of isolated rainfall activity over extreme south peninsular India during next three days.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over the western Himalayan region and isolated rain or thundershowers over Northeastern States during next three days.
On Sunday, minimum temperatures were between 10 to 15 deg Celsius over parts of plains of northwest, central and east India and adjoining Maharashtra. The lowest minimum temperature was 5 deg Celsius at Amritsar.
No significant changes in minimum temperatures are likely over northwest India during next 48 hours.
Forecast until Friday said that a fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region and cause scattered light to moderate rain or snow.
Around the same time, a fresh easterly wave will affect extreme south peninsular India causing scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershower.
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