AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N 89.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH
SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE LLCC, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH
IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO CREATING A MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE LLCC AND MODERATE VWS VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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