Today [10.12.2009/0300 UTC] surface charts depicts two or thre isobars closer by, thus indicating more Pressure Gradient Force (PGF)acros isobars. Obviously surface wind force will be stronger in the coast and (land too) and tides will be higher than normal during this period.
JTWC::
----------
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 84.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 84.1E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 2
DISTINCT COMMA-SHAPED AREAS OF SUSTAINED AND DEEPENING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AND ORGANIZE AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100425Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK WINDS AT
THE CORE OF A DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER (15 TO 25
KNOT) FLOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE LLCC. COLOMBO (VCBI) IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT 1006 MB, WHICH REPRESENTS A 1 MB DECREASE FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD,
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR
NCMRWF - predicts very heavy showers for North Tamilnadu and South Andhra coast from 12-Dec to 15-Dec.
No comments:
Post a Comment