Wednesday, April 15, 2009

"94B" is now "01B"

"94B" is now cyclone "01B", this is the first cyclone of the year 2009.

Here is the latest tracking from JTWC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 142007Z AMSU-B
PASS INDICATE THAT INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 01B HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS FROM A QUASI-
STATIONARY POSITION AND IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA HAVE CAUSED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER IN THE LAST 06 HOURS THE INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF TC 01B HAS
BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT INFLUENCE AND WILL HELP TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TURNS IT MORE NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND WILL HINDER OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD CHANNEL, LEAVING ONLY THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON THE
SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE
FORECAST INTENSIFIES TC 01B AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48
WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES BEYOND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141121Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 141130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
12 FEET.

Here is the latest satellite pic from www.weatheronline.co.uk

Here is the latest GFS from BBC , like all GFS models this also shows the same "01B dying out in open seas" before friday (17-Apr-09)

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