Wednesday, April 15, 2009

"01B" heading towards Orissa

At present "01B" is mild in strength and heading towards Orissa coast.

Latest satellite shot shows HUGE mass of swirling cloud near Orissa and it's covering almost full of Northern bay.

Here is the warning text and graphic from JTWC

POSITION NEAR 14.9N 86.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150159Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH BROKEN BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS IT
TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM
142345Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 35KT WINDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND THE LLCC WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER ASIA MINOR. AFTER
TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA THAT WILL HELP TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. FORECASTED TRACK IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT
OF OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH EGRR BEING THE ONE OUTLIER TRACKING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POSITION
IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG,
BUT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH IS STARTING TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE SINGLE
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE FORECAST INTENSIFIES
TC 01B SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OBJECTIVE AIDS THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.

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