MJO update

It was abnormally dry, sunny and hot over the Subcontinent again Wednesday. Daytime temperatures 5 degrees F/3 degrees C above normal have been common, yet low humidity and fair sky have favored cool nights.

Key to shaping the unusually settled subcontinent weather has been -- and still is -- a strong anticyclone aloft over the northern Arabia Sea, southern Pakistan and western India. This weather system is forecast to stay strong and dominant through the end of the week, albeit with a slow eastward shift. No meaningful rain through then, to be sure.

A dry phase of the Madden/Julian Oscillation (MJO) is still holding sway over the Indian Ocean basin as of 0000 UTC, Wednesday. A wet phase over East Africa and Arabia is forecast to shift east to the subcontinent as of midmonth. But the latest forecast of the MJO shows a strong dry phase quickly overtaking and overwhelming the wet one.

I, myself, have anything meaningful to add to this MJO forecast. However, I will once again weigh in with a eye toward a return of NE monsoon rains. As of 1200 UTC Wednesday, the GFS is still moistening SE India suggesting a return to showers on or after the 15th. I do believe there will be more rain here before winter's drought sets in, but I do have any good idea of my own as to timing and amount.