To support my view on "North-east monsoon" here is a blog from Accuweather.com
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Monday's satellite imagery of the Indian Ocean region has shown what may be the least cloudy Subcontinent sky since spring or late winter. And cloudiness, such as it is, was over the south, where there have been a few downpours (mostly Tamil Nadu and Kerala).
Withdrawal of the South West Monsoon together with the return of the is the herald the Northeast Monsoon in October, which is what is being seen at this time. In truth, there are not any well-marked northeasterly winds at this time, but rains have begun in the southern east coast. At Chennai, rainfall since late Friday has been 3.1 inches/7.9 cm.
Looking forward over the coming five to seven days one can see the onset of a weak north-south pressure gradient over peninsular India. Coincident with this is the likelihood for further rain over southern India, most notably over Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. In the north, the Westerlies will hold sway with mostly dry weather in answer. A "Western Disturbance"--really a short-wave trough within the Westerlies--will dip into the northern Subcontinent triggering a few thunderstorms mostly along the western Himalaya.
While still in the area of the Indian Ocean, I will make mention of something that could happen late this week. This something would be a tropical depression (even a cyclone) along 10 degrees North latitude west of southern India. As of Monday it is way too early for me to commit to this idea, one way or another. Whatever does happen would most likely drift westward, if Monday's numerical forecasts are true.
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Hey buddy even i am keenly following the onset of the NE Monsoon.Yes in fact even i noticed that rains began on 11th Oct arnd 7 in the evening.
ReplyDeleteBut what am surprised is that the IMD still mentions these rains as south west monsoon.The winds ahve already turned North easterly.How can this be south west monsoon rains.And the way the rains occur it is a characteristic pattern of the NE Monsoon.
Did you see the COLA forecast.They say more rains in southern TN and srilanka. Not much for Chennai.Thats sad. I wud be thrilled to see chennai getting a cyclone or so...
Thanks,
ReplyDeleteAt least someone has supported my views.
Its official now according to imd NE Monsoon has set in as SW monsoon has withdrawn from kerala,tn next few days rain towards the south only.
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