My sights having been turned elsewhere, I missed the exceptional heat over southern Pakistan at Karachi. This heat wave has seen 8 of the last 14 days (as of Thursday) reaching 100 to 102 degrees F/about 38-39 C.
The normal average daily high for October in Karachi is 92 degrees, or about 33 degrees C. October is the heart of a "second summer" in Karachi owing to the onset of offshore winds (related to the North East Monsoon) before lingering summer heat has faded.
About the NE Monsoon, I see that rains have gained ground northward along the east (Andhra) coast. At Nellore, a lull in the rain followed about 10 inches/25 cm since Sunday. To the west, weak tropical low pressure over the Arabian Sea has spurred rainfall of 9.2 inches since Tuesday on Amini, one of the small Lakshadweep Islands.
As of Thursday, that weak tropical low seems less likely to become a tropical depression given the trend in numerical forecasts. More emphatic are forecasts of a tropical depression or tropical cyclone east of India during the early week.
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