Tuesday, September 15, 2015
September 15, 2015 at 11:54PM
Heavy rain ahead for Odisha, Andhra, Telegana, S Chatisgarh, W,S,central Maharashtra, N, coast Karnataka, Kerala in 24 hrs. #weather
September 15, 2015 at 11:50PM
NW bay WML - 99B is crossing into Odisha coast. Expected to drift W, WNW in next 36hrs. #weather
Monday, September 14, 2015
September 14, 2015 at 11:27PM
NW bay low is expected to push into odisha coast in next 18 hrs, then drive WNW over N peninsula. #weather
Saturday, September 12, 2015
Heavy rain ahead for S Odisha and N Andhra
Today, low,mid-level circulation seen over N-W central Bay, its upper-level circulation seen near central coast Andhra .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cYL3c.jpg
N-W central Bay also hosts a sea level LOW at 1004mb.
And
West coast offshore trough seen from S coast Maharastra to central coast Kerala
GFS expects this Bay LOW to persist along N-coast Andhra and even deepen to a depression in next 3 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cYL9q.jpg
On 14/15-Sep, the expected depression / WML is expected to cross into N coast Andhra... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cYLft.jpg
From today till Tuesday... Karnataka coast and Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu will continue to get scattered moderate / heavy rain.
Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Before morning of 13-Sep...
Scattered T showers over N-E,central,S Andhra, S Odisha, Telegana, N-W,N,N-E Karnataka.
More Scattered T showers expected over W,S,S-central Maharastra on today and Sunday... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cYLKF.jpg
Today, scattered T showers also possible for S,S-central Gujarat.
More HEAVY T showers ahead for N Andhra on today, 13,14-Sep.
For N,N-E Tamilnadu and Chennai... isolated T showers possible on today and before Sunday evening.
NO significant rainfall activities
Some of my Blogger friends refused to accept Mascarene High position and its relation with SWM. I strongly believe that this tele-connection is playing a vital role in SWM rainfall (especially) over south India. The strength and drift of western Planck of this STM to 85 Deg East, says that there will be lull or nearly NO significant rainfall activities in west coast barring Kanyakumari district for another 48-72 hours. No GFS nor MME or other model output, BUT SIMPLE interpretation. 
SWM2015 SIGNATURE is unique as any other SWM. But (1) spatial distribution (2) temporal variations (3) NO monsoon depression but only UACs (4) Lesser strength monsoon current at 850hPa and aloft are unique.
Tibetan High influence [apart from EL NINO or IOD or MJO etc] is less marked even though NE and adjoining places experienced good rainfall.
One must infer the actual rainfall in {a} chinna kallar {2} Hulikal {3} Agumbe etc to come to conclusion of SWM rainfall distribution in Karnataka and to some extend in Tamil Nadu too.
The SUN is heading towards Equator in its south bound journey. SWM withdrawal in upper latitude will commence soon.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Bay is churning !
Today, a low,mid-level circulation seen over East Bay ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cVBqR.jpg
Monsoon is active along Kerala and Karnataka coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cVBwZ.jpg
Mid,upper-level East West wind shear zone see from East Bay to S Karnataka and to E Arabian sea. Expected to persist .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/cVBFr.jpg
Present East Bay circulation is expected to persist and drift towards Odisha, N coast Andhra in next 3 days.
It Can develop into Depression!
GFS suggesting a persistence of present E-Bay circulation and Cyclone formation over N-central Bay around 15-Sep.
ECMWF suggests that the present E-Bay circulation to drift N-W and make landfall as depression/WML along Odisha coast on 14-Sep.
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